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Wales Online
Wales Online
National
Richard Youle

'This winter will be a heck of a shock': The people struggling to survive the cost of living crisis

Sophie Lewis said she didn't know how people were going to afford them, Mark Jones would contemplate not paying his, while Jake Denham said people like him simply worked to survive these days. These were some of the responses from people in Swansea to one of the most pressing questions of our time - how much will energy bills keep rising?

In April, 2021, the average annual household gas and electricity bill for direct debit customers was £1,138, according to energy regulator Ofgem. In April this year it rose to £1,971. Many analysts are expecting it to soar past £3,000 in the autumn and rise further next January.

Consultancy firm Cornwall Insight has forecast £3,358 a year from October then £3,615 a year from January. That would be almost £10 per day, although what you pay is largely determined by how much gas and electricity you use. Cornwall Insight also predicted that higher prices showed little sign of coming down into 2024.

READ MORE: 'Holy grail' of Metro transport plan is a reliable, affordable service with the best possible network, says council leader

We'll have more clarity at the end of this month when Ofgem sets the energy price cap for the autumn, but even its chief executive Jonathan Brearley told MPs recently that its previous forecasts now looked too low. Wholesale energy costs, especially gas, have spiked this year, which explains energy giant BP's £6.9 billion profit between April and June. While there is further Government support coming for householders, pressure will be brought to bear on the new Prime Minister to do more.

Today, August 4, we have also had a grim forecast from the Bank of England which has raised interest rates to their highest level since January 2009, and forecast a recession and inflation of 13%.

Clydach resident Jake Denham lives with his partner and they both work. They're paying around £160 per month for their gas and electricity now. Mr Denham, 26, said. "In the winter it's going to be, 'Oh my God.' I'm not looking forward to it. We don't go out much, because of the cost of living. The minimum wage is dreadful. One of my friends is a single father, he works his ass off, but he struggles. You are working to survive. It's like you are robots - you wake up, go to work, eat, come home and sleep. You can't get rich working nine to five. You just live."

Working to survive: Jake Denham, of Clydach (Richard Youle)

Mark Jones, of Swansea Marina, is doing a part-time teaching English as a foreign language course and receives basic Universal Credit. "It's frightening," said the 52-year-old. "In the winter people are going to have a heck of a shock. I'm not going to be able to pay the full amount.

"There is a movement gaining traction (Don't Pay UK). It's got about 15,000 followers in the UK. They can't stick us all in jail for not paying. I would contemplate it. I've got rid of my car, and buy more supermarket own brands."

Mother-of-one, Kristina Jusupova, who lives in the city centre, said summer energy bills were like the winter ones of not so long ago. "We have got two incomes," said the 33-year-old Amazon employee. "For people on low incomes or just one person working, I think they will struggle a lot."

She said her energy bill was £1.50 each day by the time she'd woken up and checked the reading. "For what? For my dreams?" she said.

Kristina Jusupova, who is relieved her family has two incomes (Richard Youle)

Gerald Hone, of Cross Hands, Carmarthenshire, said green levies, which account for around 5% of our energy bill, should be removed. "They're stifling us," said the 66-year-old. "At the same time China is pumping out, what, 38% of the world's emissions and we're pumping out 1%. Put the country right first and then sort out pollution. With BP, do they really need to make that much money? Couldn't they pump it back in price reductions?"

Green levies are part of a chunk of our energy bill referred to by Ofgem as social and environmental obligations. These obligations help the UK Government fund policies such as energy efficiency improvement schemes, support for vulnerable people and encouraging take-up of renewable technology. They currently account for 8% of a gas and electricity bill.

Sophie Lewis, 31, of Port Tennant, said of the rising energy costs: "It is a worry. I don't know how people are going to afford it. People are going to choose between heating and eating. For people on minimum wage, I don't see how they are going to survive." The mother-of-three added: "We plan to spend less on other things. Everything has gone through the roof. It's £110 for five of us now for a week's basic shopping."

Peter Vickers, who is in his final year of a business management degree at Swansea University, said he and his three house-mates were each paying an extra £25 a month for energy since last month, which he hoped could offset future rises. "We are quite fortunate - if needs be maybe our parents could spot us a bit of money," said the 21-year-old. "I worry for people who have a baby or family to feed." On BP's bumper profit, he said: "It just seems wrong. The world seems a bit backward."

Student Peter Vickers, who considers himself quite fortunate compared to others (Richard Youle)

Roy Hart, who is retired and lives with his wife in a bungalow in Morriston, said: "We are lucky, we are not on the breadline. If I was 30 years of age, I would be worried." The 77-year-old said his monthly energy bill had risen from £56 to £117 recently. He said this was money that he and his wife couldn't replace, now they're not working.

"I can't understand why it's got to be so high," he said. "The Government are not doing anything about it."

Christine Midwinter, of Winch Wen, said she would be cutting back on treats for the family, and that she was likely to struggle this winter. "I can't go hungry, so I will be eating," said the 73-year-old. "I will just have to put more socks on."

Nick Burridge, of Uplands, said he and his partner would switch the heating on this autumn later than normal. "It is a worry, but we don't have families to pay for," said the 24-year-old PhD student.

He said fewer days out were likely as a result of the extra costs. "Me and my partner like walking in the Brecon Beacons, but it's hard to justify it sometimes," he said.

Carol Bowskill, of St Clears, Carmarthenshire, reckoned that her family of five might simply have have to keep the heating off in the coming months. "I know that sounds ridiculous," said the 46-year-old. "But we would not be able to pay for it. We are really worried. Everything is rising. We are stressed at the moment."

Carol Bowskill, who is considering not turning on the heating later this year, and her 5-year-old daughter Dionne (Richard Youle)

The boss of BP, Bernard Looney, told the BBC that the company understood people's concerns about the scale of its profits at a time when energy bills and fuel costs were so high, although the latter have dropped in recent weeks. BP expects to pay taxes including £1 billion on its North Sea operations alone this year. Shareholders are in line for handsome dividends.

Households in Wales, Scotland and England will all receive £400 - paid in instalments from October to March - towards their energy bills. The Government is also providing £650 for lowest income households, £300 for eight million pensioner households, and £150 for those receiving non means-tested disability benefits.

Mr Brearley, of Ofgem, has warned that non-payment of bills will end up harming other customers, and urged people who were worried to contact their supplier and check what support they were entitled to.

For most people, it can't come soon enough. Finance expert Martin Lewis has called on Conservative leadership contenders Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss, and Prime Minister Boris Johnson, to make a decision quickly about more support. "There has to be action now," he said.

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