Philip Morris International soared nearly 20% last month and now finds itself near a buy point and also among the year's best performing S&P 500 stocks. The tobacco giant is betting on its smoke-free offerings, with the popular Zyn nicotine pouch leading the way, to boost revenue through the end of the decade.
The tobacco giant's year-to-date gain, up 26.5% through Tuesday, ranks sixth in the S&P 500 index. Last year, Philip Morris stock gained 28%. The S&P 500 stock is down 1.7% in March after rallying 19.3% in February as the company posted better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings and revenue on Feb. 6, raising its 2025 guidance above analyst expectations.
For 2025, the company forecasts profit growing 7%-9%. Philip Morris also predicts organic net revenue growth around 6%-8%. Management does not expect to repurchase any shares in 2025.
Analyst consensus has 2025 earnings growing 7.7% to $7.08 per share with revenue increasing 4.6% to $39.61 billion, according to FactSet. Analysts expect Philip Morris' smoke-free sales to jump around 14% in 2025.
The company reports Q1 earnings on April 23.
Philip Morris And Zyn
On March 3, Bloomberg reported that Philip Morris is weighing the potential sale of its cigar business in the U.S., part of a shift away from traditional tobacco products to focus on its smoke-free line. The cigar business was a unit of Swedish Match AB, which Philip Morris acquired for $16 billion in 2023. That deal also added Zyn nicotine pouches to its portfolio.
In 2024, the S&P 500 component's smoke-free products comprised about 38% of its total sales. Philip Morris has set a target of smoke-free revenue making up about 66% of its total sales by 2030.
Following Q4 earnings on Feb. 6, Morgan Stanley analyst Eric Serotta wrote that the firm expects Philip Morris' smoke-free products to make up 55% to 65% of total sales by 2030 and that this "should drive continued upward re-rating for the stock."
Over the past two years, Zyn quarterly sales growth has averaged about 60%, according to Morgan Stanley analysis. The company's heated tobacco device, IQOS, has also shown solid gains internationally. In the U.S., Philip Morris expects to start sales of IQOS in Austin, Texas at the end of Q1, with hopes for an FDA authorization in second half of 2025.
S&P 500: Philip Morris Stock Performance
PM shares advanced 1.4% to 154.28 during Wednesday's stock market action and it's up 1.9% on the week.
The stock has forged a three-weeks-tight pattern with a 159.51 buy point, according to MarketSurge charts. However, aggressive investors could also use 157 as an early entry. The S&P 500 stock is trading about 5.3% below that 159.51 buy point.
Meanwhile, the nine stocks in the IBD-tracked Tobacco industry group have collectively gained 10.2% in 2025. The Tobacco industry group is ranked a lofty 14 out of the 197 industries tracked by IBD.
Philip Morris stock has a 21-day average true range of 1.92%. The ATR metric is available on IBD's MarketSurge charting tool. It gauges the characteristic breadth of a stock's behavior. Stocks that tend to make large jumps or dives in daily action, the kind that can trigger sell rules and shake investors out of a stock, have a high ATR. Stocks that tend to make more incremental moves have lower ATRs.
In the current, unpredictable market, IBD suggests stocks with ATRs of 3% or below.
The S&P 500 stock ranks third in the Tobacco industry group. Philip Morris has an 89 Composite Rating out of a best-possible 99. Shares also have a 95 Relative Strength Rating and an 82 EPS Rating.
Please follow Kit Norton on X @KitNorton for more coverage.
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