THE latest Scottish opinion poll points to a landslide victory for the SNP in the next General Election, a fifth term for the party in Holyrood and a majority for independence – indicating that reports of the party’s total collapse were somewhat premature.
In contrast to recent surveys that suggested a neck-and-neck race or even a lead for the Labour party, a November poll from Ipsos shows the SNP on 40%, a lead of 10 percentage points over Labour (on 30%). The Tories are on 15%, Lib Dems 6% and the Greens 3%. This is the highest that the SNP has polled in any survey since May 2023.
If repeated at a General Election, this would produce a landslide victory for Humza Yousaf’s party. The SNP would win 48 seats (unchanged), losing six seats to Labour but gaining six seats from the Conservatives.
Labour would win seven (+6), the Lib Dems two (unchanged) and the Conservatives none (-6). Note that this projection uses the new 57-seat boundaries for Scotland; the LibDems would have won only two seats in 2019 with these boundaries.
NEW: The latest Ipsos Mori figures show the SNP would win 48 seats in a General Election while Labour would pick up seven. Meanwhile, the Tories are expected to lose ALL their Scottish MPs. Graphics collaboration with @LeftieStats pic.twitter.com/WzfhsXPQZi
— The National (@ScotNational) November 29, 2023
In winning 84% of Westminster seats, the SNP would gain all six Conservative constituencies (such as Dumfriesshire, which has been a Tory seat for nearly two decades) but lose six seats to Labour. One of these would be the redrawn seat of Rutherglen, which was lost under the old boundaries in a by-election in October. The fact the SNP could win over 80% of Westminster seats whilst still losing Rutherglen does suggest that the by-election result was not the earth-shaking result that Labour believed it to be.
The SNP’s popularity extends beyond just the next Westminster election, however. The Ipsos survey also indicates that the party will win an unprecedented fifth term in the next Holyrood election, due in May 2026. The party leads Labour by 39% to 27% in the constituency vote (a lead of 12pts) and 33% to 26% in the regional list vote (a 7pt lead). The Conservatives are on 15% in both ballots, and the Lib Dems are on 8% in both. As usual, the Greens’ result in the regional list (10%) exceeds their constituency vote (4%).
NEW: The latest polling from Ipsos Mori shows support for Scottish independence sitting at 54%. It marks an increase on the researcher's last survey, which found support was at 53%. Graphics collaboration with @LeftieStats pic.twitter.com/DmfqFh04uy
— The National (@ScotNational) November 29, 2023
Whilst this is a reduced lead compared to the 2021 contest, it would be sufficient to produce another solid win for the SNP. The party would win 60 seats in Holyrood (-4), with Labour moving into second place with 35 seats (+13) and the Tories reduced to a dismal 16 (-15). The Scottish Greens would continue their steady rise in support, winning 10 seats (+2) with the LibDems picking up the remaining eight seats (+4). This would give the SNP/Green alliance a combined total of 70 seats (-2), a clear majority of 11 seats over the Unionist parties.
One possible reason for the SNP’s continued strength is that support for Scottish independence remains healthy. Some 54% of respondents to the Ipsos survey would vote Yes in a future referendum, versus 46% opposed. The poll says that a majority of voters under the age of 64 would vote Yes, including seven in 10 of those aged 16-24. Yes would also prevail amongst poorer voters (57%), renters (65%) and public-sector workers (61%).
In short, the poll will please the SNP and disappoint both Labour and the Conservatives. The survey points to a total wipe-out for the Tories, with the party being reduced to zero Scottish MPs for the first time since 2001.
Labour, meanwhile, would move into second place but remain substantially behind the SNP in terms of both vote share and seats won. The SNP and Scottish Greens would remain in power, with Humza Yousaf winning a full term in office in his own right. Time will tell if this lead remains steady, but it certainly suggests that the SNP should not be counted out just yet.
