Lehigh County voters are known for splitting their tickets, backing centrists and voting on simple pocketbook issues.
That’s why it’s one of the most critical counties to watch in the 2022 midterms — and why this fall’s votes will tell us a lot about where Pennsylvania is headed in the 2024 presidential race.
Nestled between two Appalachian Mountain ridges, Lehigh is the 10th largest county in Pennsylvania and is home to Allentown, where voters sent moderate Republican Charlie Dent to Congress for several terms, then elected Democrat Susan Wild to the House when Dent retired in 2018.
“People here are willing to split their tickets and you have got to earn their votes,” said Samuel Chen, principal director of the Liddell Group political consulting firm, in an interview.
The demographics of Lehigh County are increasingly complex. Suburban Allentown has a working-class reputation but has also become the home of white-collar Philadelphia migrants. The most recent census data showed Lehigh County had the third-largest population increase in Pennsylvania, while other counties decreased in population. This includes a booming Latino population that has seen a 50 percent increase since 2010.
Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman and Trump-endorsed celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz won their respective Senate primaries, offering Lehigh County voters who have preferred safe moderates a couple unusual characters for their Senate choices.
Lehigh is pivotal piece in winning Pennsylvania because historically candidates who have won Lehigh have done well statewide.
“Lehigh County is ground zero for the election in 2022,” Geoff Brace, chair of the Lehigh County Board of Commissioners, said in an interview. “The divisions and the challenges that we see nationally manifest themselves here.”
One key race to watch is the 7th District House race, where Wild is facing GOP nominee Lisa Scheller, whom Wild beat in 2020 by just over 11,000 votes. The rematch is likely to be an even tighter race because the recent congressional redistricting process gave the 7th District a slight Republican edge. The bulk of the votes in Congressional 7th District race — which spans three Pennsylvania counties — will come from Lehigh.
POLITICO rates the race a toss-up.
“It’s personal for them,” said Chen, explaining how Lehigh voters view the upcoming rematch.
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As controversial political issues such as abortion and gun violence continue to garner national attention, Lehigh County Executive Phil Armstrong wonders whether or not it is enough to galvanize Democratic voters to the polls or if Republicans will stay home.
“The candidates are extreme opposites on these major issues,” said Armstrong. “So, it's really going to say, where does the county stand on those issues? That’s what’s going to come up in this election.”
— Shantel Destra
