If you look back over the history of The Masters in search of a recipe for success, one key ingredient that would be foolish to omit is strong par-5 scoring. There are many incredible things about Augusta National, but one of my favourite aspects has to be the risk-reward nature of the par-5 holes. Plenty of drama is often created here over the weekend, but their impact on determining the winner goes beyond the theatre they create.
In any walk of life there are exceptions to the rule, however, and the apparent necessity to go low on the par-5s at The Masters is no different. In 2024, I began looking at every winner’s scorecard since 1974 – when Gary Player won his second Green Jacket – and of the players to have reigned supreme in that 50 year spell, 49 of them were under-par for the week on the par 5s... meaning one solitary figure bucked the trend.
One Masters Champ In 51 Years Didn't Play The Par-5s Under Par
There’s potential for disaster on all of Augusta’s long holes, but all of them are in reach in two – especially the 13th and 15th, which have always been short for par 5s.
Some 16 of the last 51 winners played the 2nd, 8th, 13th and 15th in ten-under-par or better, while only five of 50 were four-under-par or worse. The mean average of the last 50 winners’ under-par scores on the par 5s is around eight-under for the week.
The overwhelming evidence is that you have to be under-par – and generally considerably under-par – on the par 5s at Augusta to have a chance of winning The Masters. But, not always...
Enter Danny Willett...
In 2016, Willett seemingly came from nowhere to post a bogey-free final-round 67 and win by three strokes from Jordan Spieth. He actually made two par-5 birdies during the final round, which means he was two-over-par for the long holes from rounds one to three.
Given data and trends, it’s stunning he was able to get the job done with such indifferent par-5 performance. Interestingly, he only made 13 birdies as well – the fewest by a winner in the last ten years.
However, he only made eight bogeys and, crucially, he was able to keep a double-bogey off the scorecard. Only 20% of Masters winners from the last 25 years have made a double and gone on to claim the title.
The best par-5 performance over the last 50 years came from American Ray Floyd in 1976, when he negotiated Augusta National’s three-shotters in an incredible 14-under-par. He finished the event on 17-under and eight shots clear of Ben Crenshaw in second place.
In 2008, Zach Johnson played the par 5s in 11-under-par despite famously laying up on every one of them. The winning score that year was +1, underlining the importance of par-5 scoring at The Masters.
In a bid to explore the potential length of this trend, and highlight the significance of this particular measure in a formula for determining your Masters picks, I decided to come back each year and add the data for the most recent winner. But, when including the stats for 2024 champion Scottie Scheffler, you won't be surprised to learn that he destroyed the par-5s on his way to victory, with a nine-under-par cumulative total for the week on the four holes in question.
See you again next year to see if anyone has joined Willett's exclusive club.
