Almost 100,000 more people will be living in the ACT in a decade's time on the back of a student-led rebound in overseas migration, a new report predicts.
The federal government's Centre for Population is predicting 550,000 people will call Canberra home in 2032-33 - a nearly 70,000-person jump on its estimate from just 12 months ago.
A major undercount of Canberra's population, which was exposed in last year's census results, and new overseas migration forecasts are behind the substantial revision.
The update is included in the centre's latest annual Population Statement, which will be published in full on Friday.
The 96,000 extra people expected to be living in Canberra in a decade's time is more than the entire population of the Gungahlin region.
The projections will renew debate about whether the ACT government is doing enough to plan for a fast-growing city, including investing properly in schools, health and transport and unlocking enough land for housing.
It also strengthens the case for more federal infrastructure spending for the nation's capital and extra seats in the Federal Parliament.
After COVID-related restrictions slowed Canberra's population growth to a crawl in 2020-21, the pace has started to pick up again, albeit not at the rapid rate it was before the pandemic.
The release of the 2021 census results revealed the ACT's population had grown to almost 455,000, about 21,000 more than the Australian Bureau of Statistics had previously estimated.
The revelation of the major undercount prompted a "frustrated" Chief Minister Andrew Barr to push for a top-up in the ACT's share of GST revenue, which is based on population size.
Earlier this week Mr Barr also called for a doubling of annual Commonwealth infrastructure investment in the ACT to reflect Canberra's growth.
The new population statement predicts the territory's population will increase at an annual rate of 1.5 per cent through to 2023-24, when 474,000 people will call Canberra home.
Population growth is expected to peak at 1.9 per cent - just under 9000 people - in 2024-25.
It will then return to 1.5 per cent in 2032-33, when the capital's population is expected to reach 550,000.
The latest ACT budget predicted population growth at 1.5 per cent this year, followed by 1.75 per cent in the year after. Growth of 2 per cent was forecast in each of the subsequent two years.
Overseas migration is expected to play a big part in Canberra's post-pandemic bounce back.
The ACT suffered a net loss of 3200 overseas migrants as the international border closure shut Australia off to the world through 2020 and 2021.
But thanks primarily to the return of international students, overseas migration is returning and is expected to peak with a net gain of 4500 people in 2024-25.
The full report, to be published on Friday, shows Canberra's population is getting older, with the median age to increase from 35.8 this year to 37.4 in a decade's time.
The report also shows the national population is forecast to reach almost 30 million in 2032-33 and rise to almost 40 million in 2060-61.
"A healthy, growing population is vital when it comes to creating a stronger and more prosperous economy," Treasurer Jim Chalmers said.
"COVID-19 highlighted just how important the wellbeing of our workforce is to Australia's economic prosperity.
"While the pandemic had significant, enduring impacts on our community and our economy, it's clear now that our population growth is bouncing back."
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