This newly drawn San Joaquin Valley district would have voted for President Joe Biden in 2020 by a margin of 11%.
But Biden’s sagging job-approval rating and issues from inflation to mass shootings could make the 13th Congressional District Republicans’ easiest pickup in California’s 2022 elections for the United States House of Representatives.
The Hispanic-majority voting-age district that holds Merced County and parts of Modesto and Turlock was formed through redistricting, the once-a-decade redrawing of legislative boundaries based on new census data. And while the race there is one of several in California that leans Democratic — meaning the party has a small edge — analysts say Republicans have reason to believe they can win.
It is the only one of those left-leaning races that lacks an incumbent, striking the advantage that usually comes with holding the office in contention. Moreover, the newly drawn 13th would have voted to recall Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom in 2021, suggesting that voters there might be open to a Republican in 2022.
“California’s 13th District is a top pickup opportunity for Republicans,” Torunn Sinclair, a spokeswoman for the National Republican Campaign Committee, said. “Whichever Democrat survives the primary will have no money and have to defend Democrats’ policies that have led to California’s record high gas prices.”
The GOP needs a net gain of five seats nationally to win control of the House in 2023. Holding its ground in California is imperative, particularly after maps formed through redistricting favored Democrats in the state. Republicans currently occupy 10 of the state’s 53 House seats. It was 11 before Congressman Devin Nunes left earlier this year to lead former President Donald Trump’s social media venture.
The House delegation drops to 52 in 2023, as California lost a seat due to sluggish population growth.
Nationally, analysts predict Republican midterm advantages as Biden’s approval rating slips — down to 39%, the lowest of his presidency, by one survey in May. Historically, the party not in control of the White House tends to do better in midterm elections.
The California primary is June 7. The top two vote-getters, regardless of party, will compete in the general election on Nov. 8.
“In California’s 13th Congressional District, we know one thing for sure: this November, residents will have the choice between a candidate who will fight for their values and an extremist who will be a rubber stamp on MAGA Republicans’ agenda to cut Social Security and Medicare,” Maddy Mundy, a spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said.
The Democratic candidates
Rep. Josh Harder, D-Turlock, would have been the incumbent, but he moved to the northern-neighboring 9th District after Rep. Jerry McNerney, D-Stockton, said he would not run in 2022.
After Harder moved, Assemblyman Adam Gray and Phil Arballo, both Democrats, announced their bids for the 13th district. They are joined by Republicans Diego Martinez, David Giglio and John Duarte.
All five stressed water issues as a top priority in interviews with The Bee. The Central Valley is California’s most productive farming region; it contributes to about a quarter of the nation’s food. Severe drought has forced farmers to leave hundreds of thousands of acres unplanted in recent years.
“I think Congress needs to really make some substantial investments and they need better partnerships with states on how we manage our state and federal resources and how we move water,” Gray said.
Gray, who has led several water-access measures for the Central Valley as a state lawmaker, is the candidate closest to holding incumbent status. He has represented Merced County in the California State Assembly since 2012 and is the only contender who lives in the district full time.
The Fresno Bee, Modesto Bee and Merced Sun-Star jointly endorsed Gray. A self-described “radical centrist, he is the only candidate with legislative experience.
“I believe nothing is more important than reaching across the aisle,” Gray said.
Arballo, a business owner, challenged former Congressman Devin Nunes in 2020. He wants investments in infrastructure and job opportunities. If elected, Arballo could be Central Valley’s first Latino House member, depending on the outcome of other nearby races such as the 22nd district contest between Republican Rep. David Valadao, R-Hanford, and Asm. Rudy Salas, D-Bakersfield.
The 13th is one of three congressional districts in the Central Valley where Hispanic people make up the largest voting age group.
“The most important thing, I think, is also just the representation. Being being a part of a community that has never had that representation before is a big effing deal,” Arballo said.
The Republican candidates
The GOP contenders stressed curbing government spending.
Duarte, a farmer and founder of Duarte Nursery in Hughson, pressed on border security, domestic energy production and helping families who are “weighing their food budget versus their gas bills.”
“I‘m hoping that members of Congress and both parties see this as a crisis and that our current policies are failing,” Duarte said. “We know the policies that make life affordable and give opportunities to more people are doable. We’ve done them. We need to get back to them.”
Duarte has the most cash on hand of any candidate in the race as of May 18, according to the Federal Election Commission, which tracks campaign finance.
A member of the NRCC’s Young Gun program, Duarte has almost $306,000 on hand. Gray has the second most: $286,000.
Duarte called this race “the number one targeted Republican pickup in California.”
Martinez, whose mother brought his family from Uruguay when he was a child, identifies as Hispanic. A business owner who is campaigning on “America First” policies, Martinez ran in the recall election against Newsom.
“Unfortunately, our people who we have elected have lost touch with the reality of life. In California right now, our average gas price is $6.25 and we cannot afford to live,” Martinez said. He wants to bolster trade schools in California and tighten immigration policies.
Giglio, a business owner who consulted with Democratic Rep. Jim Costa to develop a water plan, was a teacher. He wants people to be able to choose where their children attend school regardless of their zip code.
“I think it’s the avenue that’s going to lift a generation of children out of poverty by giving them access to a quality education and not boxing them into going to schools that are not adequately preparing them just because of the zip code they live in,” Giglio said.
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