A weakened prime minister facing a party divided on Brexit and a European Union that is inclined to wait and negotiate with their eventual successor. No, not Theresa May. This time, it’s Boris Johnson. After the government revealed on Monday evening the bill it plans to use to unilaterally rewrite parts of the Northern Ireland protocol, it’s the current Tory leader who is being squeezed two ways.
Problems with the Northern Ireland protocol are nothing new. Almost as soon as Johnson agreed to the new trading arrangement between the UK and EU, issues started to arise. The prime minister’s insistence that there would be no checks on goods going from Great Britain to Northern Ireland or vice versa quickly proved to be wide of the mark. As time has gone on, the problems with the trade barriers have become more apparent – with some mainland businesses simply giving up on sending goods to Northern Ireland because of the onerous bureaucracy.
However, these issues aren’t the only reason Johnson has for acting now. There is also a political calculation. As the prime minister’s authority has weakened during the row over Partygate, and his mishandling of other domestic issues, the number of demands from his MPs has grown – and rewriting the protocol has become a key wish from the right flank of the party. As one government aide put it earlier this year, before the war in Ukraine when there was talk of an imminent vote of confidence: “Northern Ireland could be his next move” – pointing to how Johnson could win points with some MPs on the issue.
For evidence of the belief that Johnson is now viewed as someone his MPs can coerce, just look at the internal wrangling that took place ahead of this announcement. Members of the European Research Group (ERG), the key group of Brexiteers, worked with the foreign secretary, Liz Truss, to try to toughen the bill up further. They faced some resistance from cabinet ministers, including Michael Gove and Rishi Sunak, who urged caution – as well as from Tory MPs such as Jesse Norman who criticised the approach in his letter of no confidence to the prime minister.
“The protocol bill is becoming a proxy for support of Boris Johnson,” one member of the government tells me. They add that members of the One Nation group of Tories are already sharing a briefing document that explains the problems with the government’s unilateral approach. The biggest concern among these MPs is that it breaches international law – despite assurances from ministers that it does not. Former ministers view the evidence for this as flaky.
The final bill shows that the Brexiteers had a fair number of their demands satisfied. Under the proposals in the bill, the European court of justice will not have a role in Northern Ireland. There will be a green lane for checks on goods from Great Britain to Northern Ireland, which spells no checks. Perhaps most controversially, ministers will have reserve powers to override other parts if they deem it necessary.
Even though these measures are enough to make Tory MPs on the left of the party – particularly the One Nation wing – see red, there are concerns in government that the Brexiteers will still take issue. “They are programmed to find betrayal,” says a government source. Another adds that they are only after “perfection”. This points to trouble if the EU responds by offering a compromise. So far, the European Commission vice-president Maroš Šefčovič has warned that the reaction to unilateral action will be proportionate.
For now, No 10 has decided it wants the fight. Despite public statements from the prime minister claiming the proposed changes amount to a “trivial set of adjustments”, there is an acceptance in government that the EU will see it as a very hostile manoeuvre; one that, if the bill is passed into law, could result in retaliatory action such as a trade war. When it comes to immediate objections to the bill, ministers have priced in criticism from Brussels, Washington and the Lords. The latter point is why there is still scepticism as to whether it becomes a reality.
There is a confidence that the bill will pass the Commons – but not everyone in government wants it to go much further than that. There are figures in Downing Street who still want a fight, but if the Lords were to object to it, as is the current government thinking, the whole legislative phase could be delayed. If the Lords blocked it, the government could use the Parliament Act to bring it back in the next session. But that would spell a delay of a year, taking the Tories close to the next general election.
It’s in part for these reasons that for now the EU could hold tight. Why react with hostile action when diplomats are unconvinced it will ever come to pass? The other reason for scepticism in Brussels is the doubts about Johnson’s future. While there are pros in terms of Johnson’s political position in trying to woo the right, the timing of the confidence vote could not have been worse.
Many now look at him in the way they did May. The difference is that this time they believe his successor could be better for their interests, in terms of a softer protocol position. Johnson’s reduced authority makes things tougher.
But even were Johnson able to secure a concession, he would still face domestic problems. Ultimately the prime minister must sell any compromise to his party. He is in a better position than May was, in that sense. She had a hung parliament; he won a majority of 80 in 2019. Yet the fact that 148 of his own MPs only recently voted against the prime minister in a confidence vote will weigh heavy on the mind of aides in No 10.
If Johnson fails to deliver on a solution to the protocol, could those on the right turn against him? In No 10, the view is that the bulk of parliamentary opposition to the prime minister has come from the left. Yet support from those he originally relied on – the Brexiteer base – has begun to fray. The former ERG chair Steve Baker was among those to turn on his leadership.
It follows that upping the ante risks raising expectations that could then fall. As May showed after the 2017 election, in which she lost the Tory majority, winning back trust is a very hard thing to do.
Katy Balls is the Spectator’s deputy political editor
