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ED CARSON

The AI Stock Lapping The Field In 2024 — It's Not Nvidia

Nvidia has been on a tear in 2024, nearly doubling in price. But it's no longer the top performer in the S&P 500. Super Micro Computer, which just joined the S&P 500, has more than tripled in the new year.

Constellation Energy, Meta Platforms and Deckers Outdoor, also a brand-new S&P 500 component, round out the top five.

Nvidia and partner Super Micro are clearly AI plays, along with Meta Platforms. But even Constellation Energy is an AI play of sorts.

On the downside, Tesla and Dow giant Boeing are the S&P 500's biggest losers this year.

The overall S&P 500 is up 9.7% in 2024 hitting record highs last week.

Top S&P 500 Stocks In 2024

Company Ticker YTD Return
Super Micro Computer SMCI 267.3%
Nvidia NVDA 92%
Constellation Energy CEG 60.2%
Meta Platforms META 42.1%
Deckers Outlook DECK 39.4%

Super Micro Stock

Super Micro stock has exploded for a 242.2% gain in 2024 as of March 25. Shares blasted out of a base on Jan. 19 after the AI server maker gave strong preliminary results, then kept running after reporting complete results and bullish guidance later that month.

SMCI stock staged what appeared to be a climax top on Feb. 16, but rebounded a few days later on Nvidia's latest earnings. Shares jumped to fresh record highs in early March on news that Super Micro would join the S&P 500.

While Super Micro is the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 this year, it's actually a slight drag for the S&P 500. That's because Super Micro stock fell 9% last week after joining the benchmark index. Most of that reflects losses from a new share offering.

However, shares rose sharply Monday. SMCI stock is down just 2.4% since joining the S&P 500.

Super Micro makes servers for AI chips from Nvidia and others.

Nvidia Stock

Nvidia stock has shot up 92% in 2024. In early January, shares broke out of a flat base, decisively clearing months of consolidation, and haven't looked back. NVDA stock has rallied for 11 straight weeks, including 7.35% last week. On March 8, the AI chip leader reversed sharply lower from a record 974, but quickly found their footing.

Shares edged up 0.8% to 950.02 on Monday, a new closing high.

Last week, Nvidia showed off its latest AI chip platform at its GTC conference, along with a slew of new products, services and partnerships.

Earnings have skyrocketed 429%, 593% and 486% in the last three quarters, with revenue up 101%, 206% and 265%. Strong growth is seen continuing for the next few quarters.

China Aims To Phase Out AMD, Intel From Government Computers: FT

Constellation Energy Stock

Constellation Energy stock has soared 60.2% in 2024, hitting a record high on March 25. Shares skyrocketed in late February to early March following strong Q4 results and 2024 EPS guidance that was well above views.

The electric utility stock, with heavy nuclear power plant exposure is a quasi-AI play because of the huge power needs for data centers to run AI chips and servers from the likes of Nvidia and Super Micro.

S&P 500 Stock: Meta Platforms

Meta stock has rallied 42.1% this year. Nearly half of that came on Feb. 2, when shares gapped up 20.5%. That came after the Facebook and Instagram parent delivered strong, accelerating profit, a huge buyback and a first-ever dividend. Since then, shares have continued to drift higher, but are extended.

Deckers Stock

Deckers stock is up 39.4% in 2024 through March 25. Like Super Micro, the specialty shoe maker joined the S&P 500 before the open on March 18. Unlike SMCI stock, Deckers rose last week, despite sliding Friday in reaction to weak guidance from Nike.

DECK stock does have a four-weeks-tight pattern offering an add-on buy point of 956.17. But with shares nearly doubling since the stock market rally began in late October, investors might want to wait for a new base or at least another test of the 50-day/10-week line.

Deckers makes Ugg boots, Teva sandals and more, but a big growth driver has been Hoka running shoes.

These Two Catalysts Keep Driving Rally; Three Stocks Near Buy Points

S&P 500 Stock Losers

Tesla stock is up slightly from mid-March lows, but is still down 30.5% in 2024, making it the S&P 500's worst performer so far this year. Analysts have continued to slash earnings estimates in 2024, while all signs point to a big first-quarter delivery miss vs. current consensus. As a result, while Tesla stock has tumbled in 2024, it hasn't gotten cheaper.

Boeing has skidded 26.6% in 2024, reeling from the fallout of a Jan. 5 in-flight incident in which part of an 737 Max fuselage ripped off the plane. That could have long-term consequences, with airlines switching to Airbus due to safety concerns or slowed Boeing production. BA stock nearly hit a 52-week low last week but reversed higher for a 3.5% gain.

Boeing stock rose slightly Monday amid a major shake up. CEO Dave Calhoun will step down at year-end, while Chairman Larry Kellner will leave in May. Stan Deal, who ran Boeing Commercial Airplanes, is out immediately.

Please follow Ed Carson on Threads at @edcarson1971 and X/Twitter at @IBD_ECarson.

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