WASHINGTON _ Three swing-state House members backed Joe Biden's presidential campaign over the weekend, lifting his number of congressional endorsements to 31, more than double the amount of any 2020 rival.
But with just four weeks to go until the Iowa caucuses, most of their Democratic colleagues are choosing to stay on the sidelines. By comparison, Hillary Clinton had secured 181 congressional endorsements by the first week of January 2016, an overwhelming show of force that solidified her as the party's frontrunner. Biden, who leads national polls of the 2020 primary race, isn't even at a fifth of that total.
It's a reflection of the extremely cautionary approach elected officials are taking in a still-unsettled campaign.
"Everyone wants to talk about their angst over the Democratic primary," said Sen. Jeff Merkley of Oregon who contemplated a 2020 campaign himself and is now neutral. "They may lean towards one of the candidates, but they're nervous. They are so nervous. They're nervous about each one of the leading four for different reasons."
While four of Biden's congressional supporters have come in the past week, the reluctance of a majority of Capitol Hill Democrats to pick a favorite by this point in the race demonstrates their uncertainty about a field without a clear-cut frontrunner _ and a calculation that staying neutral is the safest bet.
For some, the political risk of making an endorsement outweighs any potential reward. Others are still waiting for candidates to address their pet issues. And then there are those who are ducking a choice altogether.
"Honestly, I keep my messages full," said Rep. Mark Pocan of Wisconsin, who co-chairs the Congressional Progressive Caucus, referring to his voicemail. "I'm trying to avoid them all at any level."
Pocan said he hasn't felt compelled enough to help a candidate, even though progressives Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are among the top four candidates in the polls.
While Warren has eight progressive caucus endorsements and Sanders boasts four, the majority of the group remains uncommitted. Pocan didn't rule out getting involved ahead of his home state's primary in April, but said he'd like for candidates to devote more time to rural economic concerns before he takes a side.
"Too often, we talk about large progressive issues as if they don't affect people in rural areas," he said. "Democratic presidential candidates shouldn't forget about rural economic issues."
After Biden, Warren and Cory Booker each have 12 congressional endorsements, with all of Booker's coming from his home state of New Jersey. Sanders has six, Amy Klobuchar has five (all from her home state of Minnesota) and Pete Buttigieg, who leads some Iowa polls, has just three.
Rep. Dan Kildee, the senior Democrat in Michigan's delegation, endorsed Clinton in May of 2015 of the last presidential cycle. This time, he said he'd only back a candidate if he saw someone articulating a vision of how to revitalize the Midwest.
"We want to see a plan to rebuild our older industrial cities, to clean up our brownfields, to tear down abandoned buildings and replace them with investment that connects us to the new economy," he said. "I don't think anybody's been specific enough yet. And I think they should be more specific if they want to get the attention of the people I represent ... I don't think any of them are talking enough about the Midwestern challenge that we face."
Each member of Congress has different political considerations when endorsing a presidential candidate. Clinton's shock loss and the strengthening of the online left have produced more restraint among members. Backing Warren, for instance, risks alienating their hometown constituents who support Sanders.
In addition, there is considerable skepticism around the impact of congressional endorsements outside of a few select superstars, like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who pumped fresh energy into Sanders' campaign after the candidate suffered a heart attack in October.
Still, campaigns covet them as ways to command media attention and demonstrate momentum.
When Biden unveiled endorsements from Pennsylvania's Chrissy Houlahan, Conor Lamb and Virginia's Elaine Luria on Sunday, it was designed to show confidence in swing states Democrats will need to win back win November.
For those members of Congress who endorsed a candidate who already dropped out, they want to avoid getting burned again.
Kamala Harris had earned 17 congressional endorsements before ending her White House bid in December, including 11 members of the Congressional Black Caucus. Rep. Brenda Lawrence of Michigan, who backed Harris in August, said most of her CBC colleagues have been back at the drawing board, evaluating the candidates' messages to African-American voters.
She declined to say which candidates she had heard from most aggressively, but noted Buttigieg _ who has struggled to build support among black voters _ wasn't among them.
"I would expect for someone to ask for my vote and support," she said. "I represent the largest Democratic base in a swing state. If you don't value that and you don't even call me, I'm not mad at you ... but first you have to reach out to build that relationship."
Lawrence also said she thinks education and foreign policy should consume more of the discussion for candidates seeking to become commander-in-chief.
"I get Medicare for All and free college kind of excite people, but I'm looking for the long-term and no one has talked about national security to the point that I feel they have the prowess to run a country," she said.
Rep. Bobby Rush of Illinois, who had also backed Harris, said he was similarly undecided, largely because he felt the candidates had neglected core issues.
"I haven't heard anything about jobs of any kind right now," he said. "It's about the economy _ and nobody's running on that issue ... I have been reluctant to endorse any of them right now. Nobody's really addressing kitchen table issues, bread and butter issues."
Merkley, who backed Sanders in 2016, said he was yearning to hear candidates speak more about the necessity of procedural reforms to processes like gerrymandering and the Senate filibuster. But given the sheer number of senators in the race, he doubted many of his colleagues would publicly choose between friends.
But even those members parked in neutral largely agree about one facet of this primary: There's too much focus on health care.
"There's way too much about nuances on health care," said Merkley. "That's driven by the moderators of these debates. Tell the damn moderator I think we've talked about the differences between an opt-in, opt-out ... Medicare for All plan enough."
