It doesn’t take a genius to recognize that whatever the Lakers tried with Russell Westbrook last season, it didn’t work.
While many expected him to get traded this offseason, at least for now, the plan is for him to start the season with the team. If he remains on the roster, Los Angeles should try to do the opposite of whatever they did last season.
The Lakers tried a “Big 3” when they played Westbrook alongside LeBron James and Anthony Davis. It was a colossal failure.
Now, after an awkward preseason game in which Westbrook didn’t join a huddle called by Patrick Beverley, the Lakers will reportedly experiment with the former MVP coming off the bench. Here is more from Woj (via ESPN):
“The Lakers want to give Westbrook a chance to play both faster and freer with the ball in his hands leading the second unit, something perhaps mirroring the autonomy that Rajon Rondo had during the 2019-20 season.”
The Lakers have a new coach, replacing Frank Vogel with Darvin Ham. Much of the roster has experienced significant turnover, and many of the faces who ran the floor with Westbrook (e.g. Malik Monk, Carmelo Anthony, Avery Bradley, Talen Horton-Tucker, Dwight Howard, etc.) are no longer on the team.
Even still, while we can’t predict the future, numbers from the past can at least give us some indicators of how this may look when it happens.
Specifically, it is important to note how the Lakers performed when Westbrook played alongside James and Davis compared to when he was the star of the show. You can find these numbers, via PBPStats, here and here.
Opponents outscored the Lakers by 4.2 points per 100 possessions with Westbrook on the floor at the same time as James and Davis. Unfortunately, they were even worse when Westbrook did not have the help of his star teammates, as opponents also outscored the Lakers by 8.2 points per 100 possessions during the minutes Westbrook played without James and Davis.
But the more granular details matter more, and we will get into them.
According to Wojnarowski, one reason why the Lakers are interested in giving Westbrook the keys to the second unit is they believe that he can play “faster” with the ball in his hands while leading the bench.
Excluding second-chance opportunities, the average offensive possession in the NBA was 14.17 seconds. For comparison, the average offensive possession for the Lakers lasted 13.86 seconds when Westbrook, James, and Davis were on the court. While fast, that is nearly identical (13.66 seconds) when Westbrook played without James and Davis.
Even if Westbrook won’t play any faster in the second unit, he will likely play with more freedom.
Westbrook in “These seven minutes in each half belong to me and only me” mode is the greatest gift the Lakers ever could have given to us.
— Bill Simmons (@BillSimmons) October 14, 2022
Here is what you need to know about last season: Westbrook averaged an additional 15.2 points per 100 possessions during the minutes he played without both James and Davis compared to when he played with both of his teammates.
That dramatic increase (179%) tells us he was nearly twice as prolific as a scorer when he had command over the offense. What exactly did he do with the increased autonomy and why was the difference so stark?
Without James and Davis, per 100 possessions, Westbrook scored 18.1 points on unassisted 2-pointers while only 14.7% of his shot at the rim were assisted. Compare that to when all three players were on the court: Westbrook scored 7.6 points on unassisted 2-pointers and 47.7% of his attempts at the rim were assisted.
Westbrook also connected on 36.2% of his 3-pointers when playing without James and Davis, requiring assists on 40.0% of those looks. That is better than the league average from beyond the arc, and far better than his career average as well. But when flanked by James and Davis, he was 27.8% on 3-pointers and 90% were assisted.
His usage rate was 21.2% when both James and Davis were on the court. That simply isn’t who he is as a player, especially considering that his usage rate spiked to 33.9% when he was on the court without their star power.
The Athletic recently reported that Westbrook has been doing “many of the little things” asked of him during practice. He is reportedly more active as an on-ball screener. He is “looking for his teammates first” and his own shot second. His catch-and-shoot 3-point percentage has been improved during workouts, per the report, but fans aren’t buying it.
If the Lakers wanted a guard-sized player who set screens, they could have targeted someone like Bruce Brown during the offseason. But they didn’t. They decided they wanted to run it back once more with Westbrook.
They should use Westbrook for what he is, and that is someone who thrives when he has the power to do whatever it is that he wants. If he is on the court with both James and Davis, he becomes superfluous.
Against other benches, so long as he accepts this role, he can put up big numbers. If he plays well, perhaps he can rehabilitate his value and get moved at the trade deadline for some higher value as an expiring contract.
