It happens every year. You can bank on one or two teams turning around from a losing record one season to the playoffs the next. Since the wild-card era began, the playoffs have included 64 such turnaround teams in 28 years, or an average of 2.3 surprise teams per year. That includes at least one turnaround team in 27 of the 28 years, including 17 in a row.
This year we have four surprise teams holding a playoff spot as the second half begins: the Rangers, Marlins, Diamondbacks and Reds. A fifth surprise team, the Twins, are only a half game out of another spot. We have seen four surprise teams in the playoff field six times, but never five of them.
Can they hold on? Here is a look at the four surprise teams, ranked by their percentage chance of holding on, as calculated by Baseball Reference.
Rangers (86%)
Why they’re in playoff position: They have the highest-scoring offense in baseball, a rotation that ranks first in wins and third in ERA, a defense that is first in defensive runs saved and they have lost the 10th fewest days to the IL. They look rock solid.
Why they could fall out: The Astros could still run down the Rangers for the division title, but it’s hard to imagine a scenario short of a collapse that keeps Texas out of the postseason. The Rangers would need to finish 33–38 to fall short of 86 wins, the low bar for entry last season in the first year of the 12-team postseason format. But if it does go sideways for Texas, it probably means its starting pitchers wore down, and the bullpen did not improve.
What they need: Even after the market-jumping trade for Aroldis Chapman, the Rangers need more bullpen help, especially a power arm with swing-and-miss stuff. Their relievers are 15–19 with a 4.54 ERA, the sixth worst in baseball and the worst of any team with a winning record. They rank 22nd in strikeout rate. Reynaldo López or Keynan Middleton of the White Sox would be a fit.
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Marlins (75%)
Why they’re in playoff position: The offense is still below average, but All-Stars Luis Arraez and Jorge Soler have transformed the top of the lineup. Miami has improved from 22nd in OPS in the top two spots in the order to seventh. But let’s be real: They are here because of pure stuff throughout the rotation. Only the Rays, Twins and White Sox have more strikeout stuff in the rotation than the Marlins. The staff keeps them out of long losing streaks.
Why they could fall out: The Marlins have put 20-year-old Eury Pérez on pause as he has already thrown more innings than he did in his first two pro seasons. No team has more starts and innings from pitchers 25 and under. That’s concerning through the grind of the second half.
Miami also plays with a thin margin of error. It is 21–6 in one-run games, an unsustainable pace if only because no team has ever won one-run games at that clip before. And the Marlins still need to prove they can win series against better teams, especially those chasing them in the wild-card hunt. They are 19–4 against last-place teams and 34–35 against everybody else.
What they need: A veteran pitcher who can pick up innings and guide the young pitchers through a pennant race, such as Rich Hill, Lance Lynn or Jordan Montgomery. They could also use another bat, such as Jeimer Candelario of the Nationals.
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Diamondbacks (67%)
Why they’re in playoff position: A top-heavy rotation. Starters Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly and Tommy Henry are 25–8. Everybody else who starts for Arizona is 6–17. Like the Rays, Reds and Orioles, this team was built to leverage the new rules that reward speed and athleticism. The D-Backs, the sixth-youngest team, rank third in stolen bases, third in taking the extra base and third in two-strike hitting.
The biggest reason for their turnaround: The bullpen went from historically bad in terms of losing games (30–41) to respectable (21–14, with a mediocre 4.00 ERA).
Why they could fall out: Any injury to All-Star Corbin Carroll would be a disaster. And their first trip out of the All-Star break could be season-defining: at Toronto for three, at Atlanta for three and at Cincinnati for three—for a team that staggered to the break in an 11–14 slide. And weirdly, their chances for reaching the NL playoffs may come down to playing all AL teams in their final nine games—three games each against the Yankees, White Sox and Astros.
What they need: Arizona could use a dependable starting pitcher and bullpen help. Lucas Giolito or Marcus Stroman would be a great fit. The Dodgers are not going to sit still and are primed for a big splash. The Giants aren’t fading. The Padres are too talented not to mount a major run. The Phillies are battle-tested. The NL wild-card spots are likely to require at least 89 wins.
Reds (43%)
Why they’re in playoff position: Elly De La Cruz, 21, is an impact player who changed the team. The Reds are 22–8 since he showed up. But don’t forget about Matt McLain, 23; Spencer Steer, 25; Will Benson, 25; and TJ Friedl, 27; who have given this team energy. The Reds are first in the majors in steals and third in taking the extra base. Joey Votto, 39, has transformed into a masher who hunts pitches to launch (career-high home run rate) and no longer minds striking out (career-high K rate).
Why they could fall out: Pitching. It’s too young and too thin. I’m a bit surprised the Reds don’t get a higher percentage of reaching the playoffs, but a lack of pitching depth makes Cincinnati a coin flip. The Reds are 27th in the majors in ERA at 4.87. Only five AL or NL teams have made the playoffs with an ERA that high, and all of them played in the homer-happy Steroid era between 1996 and ’99. The bullpen has the fifth-lowest strikeout rate. Cincinnati expects Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo to rejoin the rotation in the coming weeks. That will help because this staff must improve for the Reds to win the Central.
What they need: At least one starter and a reliever. Among available arms are Eduardo Rodriguez and Michael Lorenzen of the Tigers; Jack Flaherty, Chris Stratton and Jordan Hicks of the Cardinals; and Scott Barlow of the Royals.
