Bryce Harper, Phillies
Bryce Harper has gone 32 days and 25 games without a home run. Eighteen of his 22 hits in that span have been singles.
The good news? The Phillies are 16–9 in Harper’s home run drought, and his on-base percentage during it is .354, as pitchers continue to fear what he can do with fastballs and he finds ways to help Philadelphia win games.
The bad news? Coming off surgery on his lead elbow, Harper has yet to regain the extension and launch in his swing. His pull-side power has gone missing. Harper’s launch angle has dropped to a career-low 7.8 degrees, and his pull percentage to a career-low 31.5%.
“He’s frustrated,” Phillies manager Rob Thomson says. “He’s hitting the ball hard. He’s just not getting it in the air.”
Rust and mechanics are playing a part in the two-time MVP missing his slug. Meanwhile, pitchers continue to treat Harper with care. He has seen only 19.3% fastballs in the zone, the lowest percentage of his career and the fifth lowest in baseball this year. They still fear a guy who has been a singles hitter for the past month.
Harper is just one of many former MVPs and All-Stars who are scuffling to find their form this year as the season hits the halfway mark. Here are some of those stars and the underlying reasons why they have struggled in the first half.
Bill Streicher/USA TODAY Sports
Giancarlo Stanton, Yankees
Since coming off the IL, Stanton still has not found his timing. Manager Aaron Boone says Stanton is missing the proper trigger mechanism with his hands that is the key to his timing. Stanton is consistently late on fastballs.
This month Stanton is hitting .042 against fastballs (1-for-24, not including cutters). The problem has been particularly acute all season against elite fastballs. Against fastballs 95 mph and higher, Stanton is hitting .130 with no home runs.
Stanton is 33, deploys a unique if awkward swing, and has seen velocity continue to rise over the course of his career. Since he won the NL MVP in 2017, average fastball velocity has jumped from 92.8 to 93.8, batting average against fastballs has dropped 11 points and the number of pitchers who can throw 100 has increased from 40 in a full season to 44 in just half a season.
Stanton’s problems against heaters go back further than this month:
Stanton vs. Fastballs
| Avg. | SLG | |
|---|---|---|
2015–21 |
.307 |
.612 |
2022–23 |
.186 |
.380 |
Lowest BA vs. Fastballs, 2022–23 (min. 1,000 fastballs)
1. Taylor Walls, Rays |
.167 |
2. Giancarlo Stanton, Yankees |
.186 |
2. Patrick Wisdom, Cubs |
.186 |
4. Joey Gallo, Twins |
.190 |
Josh Donaldson, Yankees
The same explanations about Stanton apply to Donaldson, who is four years older and not firing his swing the way he once did. Donaldson is hitting .121 against fastballs, including .067 against 95-plus. Without regular playing time, Donaldson faces a challenge to get his groove back.
One source of optimism for Donaldson: His slugging percentage is 154 points below his expected slug, an indicator of bad luck. It’s the second biggest gap among hitters with 200 pitches.
Carlos Correa, Twins
Let’s stay on the theme of getting beat by fastballs. Correa has always prided himself on hitting fastballs, including getting on top of some of the best high-spin, high-velo heaters at the top of the zone. He continually trains on the high-velo pitching machine and with Astros bullpen catcher and coach Javier Bracamonte to throw batting practice at high speed from a short distance. Last year only Luis Arraez, Aaron Judge and Yandy Díaz hit better against heaters.
Perhaps it’s due to the foot problems that have plagued Correa this season, but he has been a much worse hitter against fastballs.
Correa vs. Fastballs (not including cutters)
| Avg. | MLB Rank | |
|---|---|---|
2022 |
.347 |
4 of 124 |
2023 |
.192 |
136 of 139 |
Pitchers are taking away one of Correa’s greatest strengths: the ability to shoot fastballs to the opposite field. They can do this by pounding fastballs inside. Among right-handed hitters, Correa sees the 11th-greatest percentage of inside heaters—and does very little with them.
Lowest Average vs. Inside Fastballs, RH Hitters
| Pct. | AB | H | Avg. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1. J.T. Realmuto, Phillies |
13.8% |
43 |
2 |
.047 |
2. Carlos Correa, Twins |
15.2% |
36 |
4 |
.111 |
3. Pete Alonso, Mets |
20.7% |
42 |
5 |
.119 |
4. Esteury Ruiz, A’s |
14.45% |
32 |
4 |
.125 |
MLB Averages |
7.2% |
.240 |
Julio Rodríguez, Mariners
He is hitting the ball slightly harder (92.6) than he did last year when he was AL Rookie of the Year (92.0). But his downturn is not a matter of bad luck. It’s a matter of chasing more. Rodríguez simply swings too much to be a great hitter.
Mariners manager Scott Servais says it’s a classic case of a young player trying to do too much and to satisfy the many demands on his time and profile. Rodríguez’s chase rate has increased from 33.5%—already too high, which put him in the bottom 19th percentile—to 37.4%, which puts him in the bottom ninth percentile.
Rodríguez by Pitch Location
| In Zone | Out of Zone | |
|---|---|---|
2022 |
.343 |
.155 |
2023 |
.294 |
.138 |
Rodríguez has made 81 outs this year on pitches out of the zone. Only 10 players have more.
Francisco Lindor, Mets
He is on pace for a 30-homer, 100-RBI season, but his batting average (.223) and OBP (.305) are career lows. The problem comes down to two words: swing decisions. Lindor is hitting .161 on breaking pitches, down from .247, and the drop is largely due to trying to hit spin out of the zone.
Most Outs Without a Hit on Chase Breaking Balls, 2023
| AB | H | |
|---|---|---|
1. Francisco Lindor, Mets |
30 |
0 |
2. Christian Yelich, Brewers |
28 |
0 |
3. Jake Cronenworth, Padres |
27 |
0 |
José Abreu, Astros
At 36, Abreu suddenly has lost bat speed, at least through the first half of this season. After six straight years ranking in the top 89th percentile or greater in exit velocity—elite range, Abreu is down to the 48th percentile—mediocre. From 92.2 mph to 89.2, Abreu is among the biggest losers in exit velocity:
Biggest Drop Exit Velocity, 2023 from 2022
| MPH | |
|---|---|
1. Alejandro Kirk, Blue Jays |
-3.9 |
2. Andrés Giménez, Guardians |
-3.8 |
3. Byron Buxton, Twins |
-3.1 |
4. José Abreu, Astros |
-3.0 |
5. Willy Adames, Brewers |
-2.8 |
Four-seamers generally expose a loss in bat speed. Check out Abreu’s decline against four-seamers since his MVP season:
Abreu vs. 4-Seamers
| Avg. | SLG | HR | |
|---|---|---|---|
2020 |
.352 |
.667 |
4 |
2021 |
.295 |
.596 |
11 |
2022 |
.270 |
.404 |
4 |
2023 |
.221 |
.338 |
2 |
Houston manager Dusty Baker dropped Abreu to sixth a few weeks ago. Last week he gave him three days off (including one scheduled off day) as a mental reset before returning him to the cleanup spot Saturday. Abreu responded with four hits in two games against the Dodgers, including a home run (off a splitter).
Mike Trout, Angels
Trout’s slugging percentage has dropped from .630 to .480. Only Jean Segura (-.153) has lost more pop than Trout (-.150).
Since I detailed Trout’s troubles against fastballs, pitchers continue to pound him with heaters, and Trout still has not been able to adjust. Trout sees more fastballs this year than any hitter in baseball except Myles Straw, a go-right-at-him approach pitchers usually deploy against singles hitters.
Trout by Month vs. Fastballs
| Pct. | Avg. | |
|---|---|---|
April |
58.5% |
.273 |
May |
63.4% |
.200 |
June |
68.2% |
.200 |
Most Fastballs, June
| No. | Avg. | |
|---|---|---|
1. Mike Trout, Angels |
302 |
.200 |
2. Nathaniel Lowe, Rangers |
254 |
.189 |
3. Spencer Steer, Reds |
246 |
.180 |
