Betters have already made wagers on what Donald Trump’s inauguration is going to look and sound like - including on what words he’ll use and whether he will end a war before even taking office.
A study by Casino Reports analyzed the top 10 events, by dollar amount, that people are betting on using prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi and related to Trump’s inauguration. Only bets due to be resolved on or around January 20 were considered in the study.
Many placed bets on what the president-elect will say during his second inauguration, with $1.4 million poured into wagers on certain words and phrases Trump will use during his speech.
A whopping 78 percent of bettors think that Trump will say the phrase “America First” at least once in his inaugural address, the study says. Some — 4 percent of bettors — predict he will mention one his most recent gig work: “McDonald’s.” Others wagered that he would reference “Dogecoin,” the cryptocurrency supported by Trump’s “first buddy” Elon Musk.
Others placed wagers on whether another one of Trump’s cabinet members would withdraw before his inauguration. Matt Gaetz, the president-elect’s initial former pick for attorney general, resigned after allegations of misconduct, including claims that he paid for sex with an underage girl, and the looming release of the House Ethics Committee report that investigated those allegations.
The former Florida Congressman was not the only nominee facing intense scrutiny. Pete Hegseth, Trump’s defense secretary pick who has been questioned over an alleged sexual assault and reported drinking problems, is set to be grilled by the Senate on Tuesday.
Bettors placed $108,638 on the possibility that another nominee will withdraw before Trump is inaugurated, with 8 percent of bettors “certain” that another withdrawal will happen, the study says.
Bettors also placed $3.4 million on whether the president-elect can negotiate a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine before midnight on January 20. However, only 1 percent of bettors believe reaching this milestone is possible.
By comparison, 16 percent of bettors believed a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire could be reached by November 7, when it first started taking bets on if Trump could end the war before returning to the White House.
Others are trying to cash in on Trump’s relationship with Musk. The tech billionaire has spent significant time around the president-elect in recent months, including reportedly spending $2,000 per night on a cottage just a few hundred feet from the main house at Mar-a-Lago.
Some bettors — 6 percent — have speculated a Tesla Bot, “or any humanoid robot designed by Tesla, Inc. or one of its subsidiaries,” will be present during Trump’s inauguration, $233,436 wagered on this possibility.
Others are more focused on what happens after Trump takes the oath of office.
Nearly half a million —$449,736 — has been wagered on the number of executive orders Trump will issue on his first day in office, with 71 percent of bettors predicting he will issue more than 15 executive orders on Day 1. In his first term, he signed 14 executive orders on his first day; President Joe Biden signed 17 executive orders on his first day in 2021.
Nearly $10 million has been wagered on events linked to Trump’s second inauguration, Brett Smiley, editorial manager at Casino Reports, said in a statement in response to the filings. He thought that amount indicated “that people are willing to put their money where their mouths are, and actively engage with these events rather than speculating from the sidelines.”
