With elections a day away, practically all bets have been made, both at the presidential level and down the ballot as well. Voters, analysts and observers will not solely be focusing on who takes the White House, but also the composition of the House and the Senate, which will largely determine the next administration's ability to implement its agenda during the next term.
The outcome is a large question mark, especially in the Lower House. There, nonpartisan forecaster The Cook Political Report claims 22 races are considered a "toss-up." Of them, 12 are Republican seats and 10 are Democratic ones. Considering there are currently 220 Republican Representatives, 212 Democratic ones and three vacant seats, each race will play a key role in tipping the scale as the latter party only needs to flip four seats to regain the majority should Kamala Harris win the presidential race.
Looking at Republicans in tight races, most of them are in California (5) followed by two in Arizona and Iowa. The remaining three are in New York, Oregon and Pennsylvania. Three others are set to face a tougher race, with The Cook Political Report claiming their races are "Leaning Democrat": They are Anthony D'Esposito (NY-04), Brandon Williams (NY-22) and Don Bacon (NE-02).
One race that's gotten attention is the one for California's 22nd Congressional District, where Democrat Rudy Salas is seeking to unseat incumbent Republican David Valadao in a competitive rematch. Salas, who lost to Valadao in 2022 by less than 4,000 votes, is campaigning to become the first Latino representative from this largely agricultural district.
This district, which encompasses Kern, Kings, and Tulare counties, has garnered national attention as Salas has a real chance of coming out on top in the San Joaquin Valley, a traditional Republican stronghold. The most recent poll, released on Tuesday by Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics/The Hill has the Latino up by a slight lead over Valadao, 47% to 45%.
Similarly, in California's 13th District, Republican Rep. John Duarte is facing tough opposition from Democratic challenger Adam Gray, who served for 10 years in the California State Assembly. The district is a top priority for both parties since in 2022, Duarte won the seat by just 564 votes, while Biden carried the region by double digits just two years earlier.
Another key race is located in the Inland Empire, a metropolitan area and region inland of and adjacent to coastal Southern California. The race for the state's 41st Congressional District in Riverside County, which was re-drawn in 2021, is expected to be extremely close.
The redistricting in 2021 changed the landscape of voters in the Inland Empire. The territory now stretches from Corona down to Lake Elsinore and all the way to include Palm Springs and La Quinta. In that district, Republican Rep. Ken Calvert will be challenged by Democrat Will Rollins. It will be a rematch from their 2022 contest, which Calvert won by 11,100 votes, according to Ballotpedia.
The other Republicans facing close contests are:
- David Schweikert (AZ-01)
- Juan Ciscomani (AZ-06)
- Mike García (CA-27)
- Michelle Steel (CA-45)
- Mariannette Miller-Meeks (IA-01)
- Zach Nunn (IA-03)
- Mark Molinaro (NY-19)
- Lori Chavez-DeRemer (OR-05)
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