Adults who are in a relationship could be smoke-free by 2029 and if current trends continue, women could be smoke-free by 2035, followed five years later by men in 2040. Analysis from Frontier Economics, commissioned by Philip Morris Limited, also found that those in employment could be smoke-free by 2036, followed 15 years later by those without employment (2051+).
Bryson Thornton, Global Communications Director at Philip Morris International (PMI), says alternatives to cigarettes could play an important role in accelerating change.
Bryson said: “Where you live, and your background shouldn’t be determining factors as to whether you will quit smoking soon or in the next 20 years. The analysis tells us that more must be done to accelerate change and reduce smoking disparities in the UK.
“The best choice any smoker can make is to quit tobacco and nicotine products completely."
Projected dates that city regions could become smoke-free based on recent trends:
City |
Projected smoke-free date |
||
Portsmouth |
2026 |
||
Leicester |
2028 |
||
Leeds |
2029 |
||
Manchester |
2029 |
||
London |
2031 |
||
Nottingham |
2034 |
||
Sheffield |
2035 |
||
Newcastle |
2039 |
||
Birmingham |
2051+ |
||
Liverpool |
2051+ |
Frontier economics examined the latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) data on smoking prevalence across the UK. The projections were conducted for each city and for each demographic and socio-economic group of interest, assuming that observed annual average percentage point changes observed over the last five years will continue in each future year indefinitely (beginning in 2021).
