It’s Scheme Month at Touchdown Wire, and who better to talk about with such things than the great Greg Cosell of NFL Films and ESPN’s NFL Matchup? On this week’s edition of “The Xs and Os with Greg Cosell and Doug Farrar,” Greg and Doug (the editor of Touchdown Wire) get into two of the most dominant schematic systems in the NFL today — split-safety coverage, and the run-pass option. Let’s get into split-safety coverage to start.
Over the last few years, we’ve seen a decisive change of the single-high coverages of the Legion of Boom days. Per Ben Fennell of CBS Sports and The NFL Network, 2022 marked the first season in the Next Gen Stats era in which there was more two-high than single-high coverage.
First time in the @NextGenStats era – 2022 season had more Split Safety shells than Single high. On the rise steadily each of the last 5 years
2018 Split Safety: 36.9%
2022 Split Safety: 49.5%— Ben Fennell (@BenFennell_NFL) May 31, 2023
There are absolutely reasons for this. Per Sports Info Solutions, quarterbacks are faring far worse against two-high coverage.
NFL quarterbacks against two-high coverage in 2022 (Cover-2, 2-Man, Cover-4, Cover-6):
4,443 completions on 6,838 attempts (65.0%) for 49,446 yards (7.23 YPA), 179 TD (2.62%), 198 INT (2.90%), and a passer rating of 83.02. pic.twitter.com/Vi8njIfKTZ
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) May 31, 2023
Why is this happening? Let’s get into the weeds on it with Mr. Cosell.
Single post safeties are hard to find.
As Greg points out, the interception totals are instructive to a point, but the larger point is why teams are playing more two-deep these days.
“Think of it this way,” Greg says. “If it’s single-high coverage, you need a great post safety, and there’s not many of those guys around. And colleges don’t really put them out [most college safeties split their time between free, box, and slot], so there are fewer and fewer of those guys around.
“What do you get when you play single-high? You get [open seams] on both sides. Because a savvy quarterback can move a single-high safety, and unless you’re going to have underneath coverage run… let’s say you’re playing a team that’s running a 2×2 set. Two receivers on each side, with a back in the backfield. If you take the inside receiver, which is the No. 2 receiver on each side, and you run them on vertical seam routes, unless you’re going to have an underneath defender run in zone coverage, you are really putting the post safety in a bind. Because he can’t play both seams — he’s one person, and he can’t play both seams.”
Two-deep coverage solves a lot of problems.
So, teams are going with more split-safety coverages, and Cover-4 (Quarters) is now a staple.
Greg: “The answer for some teams, and we can talk about the Nick Saban coverages where you take an underneath defender and they run with a receiver in a 2×2 set to alleviate the problem of four vertical routes versus three deep defenders. But that poses some other issues. So the bottom line is, when you play with split safeties, and particularly in Cover-4… No. 1, you take care of the fact that the seams aren’t available, and No. 2, because those safeties don’t play at the same depth they would in, say Cover-2, they’re run-support players, as well. So, you kill two birds with one stone. You have safeties that are involved in the passing game, and in run support.”
Cover-4 doesn't solve everything.
Not that Cover-4 (or any other coverage) is problem-free. The man/match concepts inherently involved in Cover-4 can leave defenses vulnerable at times. It’s why Patrick Mahomes in particular has learned to beat it up.
Greg: “One problem with Quarters is that it’s a matchup/zone concept. It’s called zone, but it’s really a man/matchup principle. So, in that 2×2, what happens if the slot receiver, the No. 2, runs vertically? Then, the safety must matchup man-to-man. Different coaches teach this differently, but once you get beyond eight, 10, 12 yards at the absolute deepest, it becomes man coverage for the safety. One potential issue there is, if that’s a receiver… let’s say you decide to put Davante Adams or Tyreek Hill or Justin Jefferson there at No. 2. Now, you have an elite receiver with a safety, who by definition is not a great man coverage player, matched against a really high-level receiver.
“The point is, no coverage takes care of everything. But split-safety coverage does eliminate open seams, where [single-high] does not, unless you want to do certain things that compromise your coverage in other areas.
So, why do teams play single-high at all anymore?
So, we’ve seen a lot of former single-high advocates like Pete Carroll switching it up to keep pace with modern NFL offenses. The question must be asked: With all its issues, why do teams play single-high at all anymore?
Greg: “Well, now you get into field position and down and distance. You get into probabilities and tendencies based on your film study. If you’re facing a team, and based on your film study, they run the ball 68% of the time on first-and-10 out of a certain personnel package, then you’d probably want that extra player in the box to defend the run. Because your film and analytical study tells you through the week that this is what they do.
“Everything in this league is based on probability and tendency and field position and down-and-distance, and all the work that goes into that. And that leads to how defenses play. What you call is based on your opponent.”
