It’s time for Week 7 of the NFL season, and as always, Greg Cosell of NFL Films and ESPN’s NFL Matchup, and Doug Farrar of Touchdown Wire and the USA Today Sports Media Group get you ready with tons of tape study and advanced metrics.
This week, Greg and Doug get into these games:
- Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles — How can the Eagles’ defense stop Miami’s motion-heavy, track team offense?
- Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts — What did the win over the 49ers tell us about the Browns’ defense… both good and bad?
- Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens — The Lions and Ravens are each dialing it up on both sides of the ball, leading to perhaps the best schematic matchup of the week.
- Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs — How the Chiefs are playing defense at a very high level under Steve Spagnuolo.
- San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings — Brock Purdy has been amazing against the blitz this season, but will he be able to handle Brian Flores’ multi-level pressure concepts?
Greg and Doug also get into the Jets’ amazing defense.
You can watch this week’s “Xs and Os” right here:
You can also listen and subscribe to the “Xs and Os” podcast on Spotify…
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How can the Eagles at least limit what the Dolphins do with pre-snap motion?
The Miami Dolphins are running more motion than any other team in the 2023 season, and their efficiency with motion is kind of hilarious.
Motion report through Week 6!
This is sorted by rate of motion at the snap. The second column is all motion (at snap and motion and set).
Data collected by @ESPNStatsInfo. pic.twitter.com/ijpaOIL2DN
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) October 18, 2023
lol the dolphins' epa on motion passes vs. the rest of the league (@SportsInfo_SIS) pic.twitter.com/gkGAJgosWW
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) October 20, 2023
On Sunday. the Philadelphia Eagles defense is next up in the barrel — they have to deal with Mike McDaniel’s explosive offense, and all the ways in which motion sets a defense on edge, and puts defenders in bad places. It’s not a great matchup in the passing game; the Eagles’ secondary is pretty banged-up to the point where we’re not completely sure who the safeties will be, and for the season, the Eagles have allowed 72 completions on 105 attempts for 673 yards, six touchdowns, one interception, and an opponent passer rating of 101.0.
The better news for Philly’s defense is that they’ve been successful against motion runs, which the Dolphins will also spam you with — the Eagles have allowed 152 yards and two touchdowns on 57 carries. That’s 2.7 yards per carry, the lowest average allowed in the league. Only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Baltimore Ravens have allowed a lower opponent EPA per attempt against motion runs than the Eagles’ -0.27.
So, there’s that.
The Eagles have faced one offense with heavy motion this season, and that was the Los Angeles Rams in Week 5. The Rams use the second-most motion at the snap in the league this season, and Philly was able to keep the run game in check. Against Matthew Stafford and his receivers out of motion, the Eagles allowed 11 completions in 18 attempts for 90 yards… and two touchdowns.
This 17-yard completion to Puca Nacua with 13:26 left in the third quarter set up similarly to how the Dolphins attack you in the passing game. Receiver Tutu Atwell ran the crossing motion to get a full head of steam upfield at the snap, and Nacua and Cooper Kupp ran deep crossers to stretch the defense. It was a great design, with a bonus somersault from Kupp on his route.
Rams get the Eagles on motion with deep crossers, with bonus Cooper Kupp somersault. Now, the Eagles prepare for the descent into hell against the Dolphins. pic.twitter.com/us493jEj9r
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) October 20, 2023
Greg and Doug get into how the Eagles can at least limit the damage to their defense against this nearly impossible challenge.
How Aaron Glenn's evolution changed the Lions' defense for the better.
In 2022, Aaron Glenn’s second season as the Detroit Lions’ defensive coordinator, that defense finished 27th in DVOA — which was a step up from their ranking of 29th in 2021.
What a difference a season makes. Through the first six weeks of the 2023 season, the Lions rank third in Defensive DVOA, behind only the Cleveland Browns and the Baltimore Ravens.
Better personnel has been part of the equation, but the Lions have also suffered their share of injuries. Really, it’s Glenn’s change of focus in coverage that has made the difference. Glenn was the New Orleans Saints’ defensive backs coach from 2016 through 2020, and under former defensive coordinator and current head coach Dennis Allen, the Saints are about pressure concepts and man coverage. The difference for the Saints is that they have had the players to tie pressure to coverage in ways other defenses might not.
Last season, per Sports Info Solutions, the Lions played the sixth-most snaps of man coverage against the pass in the NFL, allowing 110 completions on 153 attempts for 1,717 yards, nine touchdowns, five interceptions, and an opponent EPA of 10.51, 11th-worst in the league.
This offseason, Glenn obviously did some self-scouting, and put his players in better positions to succeed with different concepts. This season, the Lions have played the second-most snaps in zone coverage on pass plays behind only the Jacksonville Jaguars, allowing 102 completions on 153 attempts for 1,171 yards, one touchdown, four interceptions, and an opponent EPA of -0.73.
Greg and Doug discuss how Glenn’s evolution into different coverages has been a huge factor in his team’s defensive turnaround.
Why it's past time to pay attention to the Ravens' dominant defense.
We’ve talked a lot about the Detroit Lions’ offense this season, and for good reason — Ben Johnson’s offense currently ranks fourth in DVOA behind only the Miami Dolphins, San Francisco 49ers, Buffalo Bills. Not only is quarterback Jared Goff playing at the highest level we’ve seen in his NFL career, but the run game the Lions put out there is as effective and multiple as any you’ll see.
As many observers are correctly stating that Dan Campbell’s squad is among the league’s best overall, we’re pretty sure we’re up to date on the effectiveness of that offense.
If you are unaware, ESPN analyst and former Lions quarterback Dan Orlovsky has you covered.
I thought Stafford left Detroit
Goff is as good as anyone right now “just playing the play” and what the defense asks you to do with the ball, he’s doing@Lions ARE LEGIT pic.twitter.com/20kUrRnfPz
— Dan Orlovsky (@danorlovsky7) October 18, 2023
However, if you’re outside of the greater Baltimore area, it’s entirely possible that you’re sleeping on a Baltimore Ravens defense that currently ranks second in DVOA, behind only the Cleveland Browns. Defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald is dialing it up something fierce in his second season, and that’s one reason the Ravens have risen from 28th to eighth to their current elevated status since 2021.
That makes Sunday’s game between the Lions and the Ravens Must-See TV from a schematic perspective.
I don't think I've ever witnessed such an even matchup by DVOA unit ranks:
Lions Pass o (4th in DVOA) vs. Ravens Pass d (3rd)
Lions Run o (7th) vs. Ravens Run d (7th)
Ravens pass o (14th) vs. Lions pass d (5th)
Ravens run o (4th) vs. Lions run d (3rd)
— Jeremy Reisman (@DetroitOnLion) October 19, 2023
Perhaps we don’t talk more about Baltimore’s defense because there isn’t a defined edge-rusher who’s among the league leaders in sacks. Maybe it’s because Macdonald doesn’t have a known “shutdown corner” in his quiver. Or maybe people get him confused with Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel.
But whether you recognize it or not, this Ravens defense is getting after it at all levels.
Let’s start with defensive tackle Justin Madubuike, who currently leads the team with five sacks. The fourth-year man from Texas A&M, a third-round pick in 2020, has been playing the season of his life, and what’s especially interesting about Madubuike is how often he’s getting pressure outside the guards. Not what you’d expect from a 6-foot-3, 300-pound guy, but Madubuike isn’t your average pass-rusher at this point.
On this sack of Kenny Pickett against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 5, Madubuike started to the outside shoulder of right tackle Chukwuma Okorafor, then moved to the inside shoulder of right guard Nate Herbig, and then blew up running back Jaylen Warren for the takedown. That’s pure demolition, folks.
Nothing unusual here. Just @Ravens DT Justin Madubuike demolishing half of the @steelers' offense on a sack of Kenny Pickett. The 6-foot-3, 300-pound Madubuike is frustrating opponents from every gap. Hugely underrated guy. pic.twitter.com/ke9LZqaZYg
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) October 19, 2023
The Ravens are also using 2022 first-round pick Kyle Hamilton in some interesting ways. I thought that Hamilton was the best player in his draft class, and he’s been awesome in coverage both at safety and from the slot — he’s allowed 11 catches on 17 targets for 78 yards, 55 yards after the catch, no touchdowns, one interception, one pass breakup, and an opponent passer rating of 50.6.
But where Hamilton is REALLY effective this season is as a blitzer — against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 3, he had three sacks — more than the two he had in his entire rookie campaign. On this sack of Gardner Minshew, watch how Hamilton slow-played the blitz, looking like a slot defender. Then, when it was too late for the Colts to change their protection, he careened in.
Another underrated defender this season has been safety Geno Stone. A seventh-round pick out of Iowa in 2020, Stone has also been playing at a new level this season. In fact, there are few deep safeties in the league playing at Stone’s level right now. He’s allowed six catches on 11 targets for 40 yards, 28 yards after the catch, no touchdowns, three interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 23.1. Basically, opposing quarterbacks would be better off spiking the ball than throwing it anywhere near him.
On this interception of a Ryan Tannehill pass to tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo last Sunday against the Tennessee Titans, cornerback Marlon Humphrey had eyes on receiver DeAndre Hopkins underneath, which caused him to break a hair late on Okonkwo’s vertical route from the slot. But Stone did a great job of breaking on the ball in Cover-3, and came up with his justified reward.
Greg and Doug discuss how the Lions will be challenged by this defense filled with Secret Superstars.
Brock Purdy is great against the blitz, but he might not like the Vikings' blitzes.
One reason the San Francisco 49ers are cooking on offense with quarterback Brock Purdy is the second-year man’s performance against the blitz this season. Per Sports Info Solutions, Purdy has faced five or more pass-rushers this season on 63 of his dropbacks. He’s completed 35 of 57 passes against blitzes for 426 yards, 205 air yards, five touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 113.6.
That stands out in a 49ers offense that can attack defenses with both the run and the pass at all levels of the field, and Purdy isn’t just checking down when he gets pressured with blitzes. He’s completed five of nine passes of 15 or more air yards against the blitz for 139 yards, 92 air yards, two touchdowns, and a passer rating of 140.0 — that’s the best in the NFL among qualifying quarterbacks (at least five attempts).
This 27-yard touchdown pass to Deebo Samuel against the New York Giants’ overload blitz in Week 3 is about as good as it gets.
However, Purdy has not seen anything like the Minnesota Vikings’ blitz packages he’ll see on Monday Night Football. The Vikings, under defensive coordinator Brian Flores, are blitzing this season at an insanely high rate — 57.9%, and the Patriots are second at 43.4%. But the Vikings’ pressure rate of 23.6% is decidedly middle of the pack.
“I see a team that causes a lot of issues,” Kyle Shanahan said Thursday about what he sees in Minnesota’s defense. “I mean, they blitz more than anyone in the league. You can never just relax and just call a play or run a play because there’s always a thousand things that can go wrong just because of the threat of what they do in any situation. So they’re on you a lot with that. They get you to make mistakes in that way. I mean, you look at the two games that they won it’s because they created a turnover with those pressures where they didn’t have a guy to block a guy. They didn’t have a hot throw. The quarterback fumbles it and they return two for touchdowns there in the second half. That’s got both of their wins. So, they’re a team that challenges you schematically and everything and when they do that, you’ve got to be on it.”
The problem for Purdy could be how Flores changes his coverages against the snap on those pressure looks. Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs has had serious issues with the deep ball this season, and Flores in particular tied him in knots in Week 5.
“I thought we took a step in a positive direction,” Mahomes said, when asked about the deep passes against the Vikings. “That’s a hard scheme to go against, the amount of pressure, the amount of dropping out, the Cover-0. I thought the young guys did a good job of being in the right spot at the right time. I think selfishly for myself, if I could hit some of those deep shots that when we did get the opportunities.”
When Mahomes talked about the Cover-0, he may have been thinking about this deep incompletion to Travis Kelce with 11:45 left in the first quarter. The Vikings showed Cover-0 pre-snap, and shifted to Cover-3 post-snap. The Vikings brought a six-man rush. Mahomes turned his back for the play fake to running back Isiah Pacheco, and when he turned back around, he saw a completely different coverage. Mahomes still had Kelce one-on-one with safety Cameron Bynum, and you can understand why he’d take that shot 10 out of 10 times. Problem was, Bynum made a great play, and that was another shot the Chiefs didn’t make.
Here, the guys get into why Purdy has been so good against the blitz this season, and what Flores might be dialing up for that to not be the case in Week 7.
