It’s time for Week 3 of the NFL season, and Greg Cosell of NFL Films and ESPN’s NFL Matchup, and Doug Farrar of Touchdown Wire, are here to preview the biggest games and the most exciting matchups in the new week.
This week’s games:
Buffalo Bills at Washington Commanders: How Sam Howell has impressed just about everybody.
Los Angeles Chargers at Minnesota Vikings: What might Justin Herbert see from Brian Flores’ offense? Based on this year’s trend, it could be just about anything.
Chicago Bears at Kansas City Chiefs: Justin Fields is clearly on the outs with his coaches. How can the Bears put together a functional passing game?
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Where are we with Jalen Hurts’ pocket vision after two weeks, and why Baker Mayfield is looking so good in Dave Canales’ offense.
You can watch this week’s “Xs and Os” right here:
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Buffalo Bills at Washington Commanders: Sam Howell has arrived!
The Washington Redskins/Football Team/Commanders/INSERT NAME HERE have been looking for a franchise quarterback since the halcyon days of Robert Griffin III and Kirk Cousins (both selected in the 2012 draft), and they may just have the solution to that long problem in second-year man Sam Howell, taken in the fifth round of the 2022 draft out of North Carolina.
Howell’s collegiate career was odd. He looked like a first-round talent in 2020, when he completed 237 of 348 passes for 3,586 yards, 30 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. Then in 2021, Howell was without his top two receivers (Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome) and his top two running backs (Javonte Williams and Michael Carter), who had all left for the NFL. He still played decently, completing 217 of 347 passes for 3,056 yards, 24 touchdowns, and nine interceptions, and become more of a runner, but it seemed that the NFL had downgraded him.
Now, the NFL might regret it. This season, in his second and third NFL starts, Howell has completed 46 of 70 passes for 501 yards, three touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 95.0. Howell is thriving in Eric Bieniemy’s offense, and he’s making a ton of big plays with high-level quarterback traits.
Greg had a lot to say about Howell’s ability to knife through the NFL.
(Note to our viewers from Doug: I kept referring to Howell’s 2021 season when I meant his 2020 season, because I’m an idiot).
“I think there’s a lot to like about his tape,” Greg said. “He’s very tough in the pocket, he’s willing to stand and deliver in the face of pressure, he does not flinch at all. He makes throws with bodies around him and maintains his firm base. He still steps toward his target, and he’s very fundamentally driven in the way he throws the football. He’s an over-the-top thrower, which you don’t see a lot in the NFL anymore, but that’s really important for him in the same way it was important for Drew Brees. Because when you’re six feet tall, and you throw with that three-quarter delivery, which a lot of quarterbacks do, that hurts you, because you’re six feet tall.
“He’s got a good arm, and for a guy who’s only started three games, I think he sees things pretty well. I think he knows where to go with the ball, he doesn’t force the ball, and he doesn’t look hurried in the pocket. I really like what I’ve seen in these two games from Sam Howell this season.”
Perhaps Howell’s most impressive throw this season so far came with 11:53 left in the third quarter of Washington’s 35-33 win over the Denver Broncos last Sunday. Howell had a backside switch release with receiver Jahan Dotson and tight end Cole Turner, and that — plus the release route run by tight end John Bates — forced Denver’s quarters coverage to the bunch side of the field. That put Terry McLaurin one-on-one with cornerback Damarri Mathis, and when you’re one-on-one with Scary Terry with a 10-yard bump, things probably aren’t going to go well for you.
Meanwhile, Howell did a nice job of evading pressure with pocket movement to his left, and you can see him looking safeties Justin Simmons and Delarrin Turner-Yell off, and making the precise throw into converging coverage.
LOVE the design and execution on this Sam Howell 30-yard TD to Terry McLaurin. Bunch left forces the C4 passing strength that way, Howell looks the safeties off to reinforce it, and he then moves to his left to make the bang-on throw. pic.twitter.com/3GVb7ISm1C
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) September 22, 2023
The Buffalo Bills will be dealing with this offense on Sunday, and it’ll be a serious challenge for Sean McDermott’s group.
Los Angeles Chargers at Minnesota Vikings: Watch the chess match between Brian Flores and Justin Herbert.
Both the Los Angeles Chargers and the Minnesota Vikings come into Sunday’s matchup with 0-2 records, but we shouldn’t overlook this game from a schematic perspective. That’s because Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores is one of the most unpredictable coaches in his position in the NFL, and Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has the physical and mental tools to nuke just about any weird defense you want to throw at him.
Moreover, the Chargers are getting it done in the run game as well, and this could be a problem Flores doesn’t want to revisit. In Week 2 against the Philadelphia Eagles, Flores started the game with some pressure looks, but called far more five-man “umbrella” coverages out of big nickel.
Per Sports Info Solutions, in Week 1 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Vikings had a light box on 37% of their defensive snaps, which ranked 28th in the league. Against the Eagles, the Vikings had a light box on 63% of their defensive snaps, which led the league. The Eagles responded as you should against all those light boxes — by running the ball 48 times for 259 yards and three touchdowns.
The Chargers have run the ball this season 61 times for 294 yards and three touchdowns. Both Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley have played well, so you wonder what the strategy will be here.
We had a lot to say about the adjustments Philly offensive coordinator Brian Johnson made against all those coverages, and what we might see in Week 3.
The Vikings did give up two explosive plays to the Eagles in Week 2, and this is something to monitor, bccause both came against blitzes. There was this 54-yard pass to DeVonta Smith against a six-man pressure and Cover-2 in which both Smith and A.J. Brown were open on mirrored vertical routes…
…and this 63-yard pass to Smith — another six-man pressure and some highly questionable coverage on the back end.
The problem with Herbert, as the Tennessee Titans found out last Sunday, is that even when you throw drops into coverage at him post-snap, he can still make bang-on throws like this 42-yard laser to Keenan Allen.
And when pressured this season, per Pro Football Focus, Herbert has completed seven of 15 passes for 104 yards, two of his three touchdowns, and no interceptions.
Most likely, Flores will pick his poisons carefully and switch it up against Herbert. No matter what, it’ll be a fascinating back-and-forth.
Chicago Bears at Kansas City Chiefs: How can the Bears fix Justin Fields?
The Chicago Bears’ offense is an unmitigated disaster through the first two weeks of the NFL season. That’s no surprise, and we at Touchdown Wire have already detailed the issues with the passing and quarterback run game designed by offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and executed by quarterback Justin Fields, and Fields’ candid response to the whole thing.
Greg and Doug went deeper into the larger discussion: When you have a quarterback whose athleticism is his most dominant trait, how do you move to the more advanced requirements of the position without causing paralysis by analysis? And why wouldn’t Getsy want to call more designed runs out of more different packages to take advantage of what Hurts does well — say, like what Shane Steichen is doing for Anthony Richardson this season, and what he did for Jalen Hurts last season?
“Now, we get into a larger discussion of quarterback play in the league,” Greg said. “There’s no question that there are more and more quarterbacks — like Richardson, theoretically Fields, Hurts falls into this category — who have running ability, and you would like to be able to use and deploy that running ability. The question is, how much do you want to do that, and at what point does a quarterback have to become an efficient pocket player?
“‘Efficient’ is a relative term. My guess is, even if Justin Fields progresses in the ways we hope he does so that be can become a good player, he’s not going to reach the level of Tom Brady or Drew Brees. And maybe he doesn’t need to — he probably doesn’t. But where’s the balance there? How do you teach a guy to play from the pocket, which you have to do in this league, if you’re not working on the traits and details that lead to that kind of efficiency?”
Because it’s not as if Getsy isn’t dialing certain things up for Fields that shouldn’t ostensibly work, and do work in most offenses. One of Fields’ sacks came on this play with 3:12 left in the first half. Running back Roschon Johnson ran up the seam, and both Johnson and receiver Tyler Scott were open to Fields’ front side. Why Fields didn’t pull the trigger here is hard to say.
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: A new Baker Mayfield has been born.
Sometimes, all you need is the right home.
Baker Mayfield has been with four teams over the last three seasons — the Cleveland Browns, the Carolina Panthers, the Los Angeles Rams, and now the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who signed the 2018 first-overall pick to a one-year, $4 million contract this offseason.
Through two games — both wins — Mayfield has been dialing it up in first-year offensive coordinator Dave Canales’ system in ways we haven’t often seen from him in the past. Mayfield has completed 47 of 68 passes for 501 yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 105.1 — fifth-best among quarterbacks taking at least 50% of their teams’ snaps this season.
Mayfield has been specifically great in 11 personnel (one tight end, one running back, three receivers), which has been his ideal personnel group in past seasons.
In 2023, Mayfield has completed 31 of 44 passes out of 11 personnel for 324 yards, and all three of his touchdowns. Route concepts out of that group seem to give Mayfield a more comfortable picture.
Baker Mayfield looks like he's been in Dave Canales' offense for about five years. Godwin appears to be his third read here.
I've always felt that Mayfield is most comfortable in 11 personnel. This play (and all three of his touchdown passes this season) have come out of 11. pic.twitter.com/FcmKpmFebc
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) September 20, 2023
But two of Mayfield’s explosive throws have also come out of 12 personnel, with two tight ends, a running back, and two receivers. That included this 70-yard catch by Mike Evans in which tight end Ko Kieft was in the backfield, and tight end Cade Otton was aligned to the right side of the formation. At the snap, both Kieft and Otton blocked for Mayfield’s front side, and that game Mayfield the time he needed to hit Mike Evans on the backside deep comeback. From there, it was Evans outracing everybody, and once again, this was not Mayfield’s first read. Safety Elijah Hicks came after Mayfield on a long blitz, turning the coverage from a two-high look to Cover-3, and Mayfield was all over it.
We discussed why Mayfield is thriving in Canales’ offense. As we saw on that second play, protection has been a major factor.
“They’re very protection-based, which is smart with Mayfield,” Greg said. “Because Mayfield is the kind of quarterback where, the longer he’s in the pocket, the less comfortable he gets. His feet start to get jumpy, he loses his base, his mind works too fast, and he loses clarity of what he’s seeing.
“So, what do you have to do with Mayfield? You have to put him in a situation where he’s in rhythm. Where he can hit the back foot, and the ball can come out. Protection becomes critical, and they are doing protection first in terms of bodies, and in terms of alignment.
“The other thing that has really stood out is the use of Chris Godwin. Godwin a year ago led the NFL in [regular-season] targets [94] and receptions [67] from the slot. This year, he’s actually lined up more often outside than from the slot.”
Greg then further detailed that 24-yard pass to Godwin shown above.
“It was Dagger — everybody runs Dagger — and it was a classic case of what I’m talking about. Otton started in the backfield, he was able to release through the line because it just turned out to be a four-man rush, and so Mayfield was comfortable. He was able to throw with great timing.”
The Bucs face off against the Philadelphia Eagles and their dominant defensive front on Monday night, which will surely test Canales’ protection concepts and Mayfield’s internal clock. But so far through two games, Mayfield has completed 21 of 27 passes under pressure for 230 yards, one touchdown, and a passer rating of 123.1.
Game on, as they say.
