You can listen all you want to coaches telling you how they want things to do on the field, but if you really want to know what it all means, take a sharp look at what teams do, as opposed to what they say. Teams will tell you everything you need to know about their desires to change things about their schemed based on differences in personnel and coaching as the offseason progresses. When new coaches are hired as the previous season comes down, and then new players are added through free agency and the draft, that’s where all the puzzle pieces begin to assemble.
In this week’s edition of “The Xs and Os with Greg Cosell and Doug Farrar,” Greg (of NFL Films and ESPN’s NFL Matchup), and Doug (of Touchdown Wire), get into five offenses that, based on changes in coaching and personnel, will look radically different in 2023 than they did in 2022.
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The Baltimore Ravens with new offensive coordinator Todd Monken
When the Baltimore Ravens hired Todd Monken to replace Greg Roman as their offensive coordinator, it was immediately clear that it was for a new philosophy. At his introductory press conference in February, Monken spoke about what he learned about modern offenses in his last three seasons as Georgia’s offensive coordinator.
“I think the game has changed,” Monken said. “The game has become more of a space game; using all 53-and-a-third yards and using the width and depth of the field, using space players and your skill players. I think that’s changed. Years ago, maybe it was inside-zone and run duo downhill. Now, it’s utilizing athletic quarterbacks. The game has changed; it’s changing. At one time, it was taller pocket passers, and now you’re seeing more shorter, athletic players. The game has changed in terms of using their athleticism, using players’ athleticisms, what they bring to the table because the game is about space. It’s about being explosive. Well, how do you create explosives? Well, part of it is creating space.
“So, that’s probably the biggest thing is, ‘How do you find a way to incorporate that into your offense?’ I think also being no-huddle, some tempo [and] what that provides because [in the college game] we were all no-huddle. It’s a little bit different then because of the dynamics of a signal system, and then the [radio communication] green dot to the quarterback. So, you have to work through some of that. That will take some working through, but it’s a speed bump, not a hurdle.”
Greg agrees that Baltimore’s offense is going to be different, especially when you factor in new receivers Odell Beckham Jr. and first-round draft pick Zay Flowers.
“When you’re going to see a lot more of this year is spread offense. Now, spread is a relative term — the hashmarks are different, and [in college], the side side of the field is extremely wide and difficult to defend. The NFL wide side of the field isn’t as wide, but still, you can do a lot more things. More spread formations with more wide receivers. They have tight ends in Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely who can detach from the formation.
“I think you’ll see a lot of empty sets, and that creates space for Lamar Jackson as a runner. You don’t want to lose that, and there are different ways to run your quarterback. Under Greg Roman, they ran Lamar out of more tight formations. Quarterback power, those kinds of things. But you can certainly run your quarterback out of spread formations, and some might argue that it’s a better way to do it because the defense is more spread.”
The Green Bay Packers with new TEs Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft
Last season, per Sports Info Solutions, the Green Bay Packers ranked ninth in the NFL with 131 dropbacks with two tight ends on the field. They lost Robert Tonyan to the Bears in free agency, but made up for it in the draft with the second-round selection of Oregon State’s Luke Musgrave, and the third-round selection of South Dakota State’s Tucker Kraft. Last season, Jordan Love completed one pass to a tight end for four yards, so not a lot of guidance there. But how will Musgrave and Kraft make Love’s life easier as he takes over that passing game?
Overall in 2022, the Packers ranked ninth in the league with 131 dropbacks with two tight ends, and mostly Aaron Rodgers completed 92 of 127 passes for 975 yards, 478 air yards, eight touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 108.9. So, it’s clear that Matt LaFleur wants the two-tight end concepts in his passing game, and that should help his young quarterback.
“It won’t be a dramatic change from a personnel standpoint, because 30% of their snaps last year did come out of 12 personnel,” Greg said. “That was the second-highest percentage in the league, and that was also a function of the fact that they were still trying to figure out the receiver position. Christian Watson is back, and I think what we saw out of Romeo Doubs would indicate that he can be a quality NFL wideout. And they did draft Michigan State’s Jayden Reed in the second round — you don’t draft a receiver in the second round and not expect him to take meaningful snaps.
“I liked [both Musgrave and Kraft] on tape. Musgrave has a bit more of a vertical dimension to his game than Kraft — with free access off the line of scrimmage, he has a three-level element to his game. He can run the seam, and he can run those vertical routes — crossers and overs. Kraft was a notch below in terms of athleticism, but not too far below. Drafting them in the second and third rounds, you’d expect them to play.
“What you’re trying to do with Jordan Love is you’re trying to create a situation where the use of personnel dictates defensive personnel, and then based on your film study, you know what the use of personnel means from a front standpoint, and from a coverage standpoint.”
The Buffalo Bills with new TE Dalton Kincaid
Last season, including the playoffs, the Buffalo Bills had 41 dropbacks with two tight ends – only the Bengals and Rams had fewer. Obviously, that changes with the four-year, $52 million contract extension Dawson Knox signed in September, 2022, and the selection of Utah tight end Dalton Kincaid with the 25th pick in the 2023 draft. After the pick, when they traded up from 27 to 25 to get Kincaid, Brandon Beane talked about Kincaid’s ability to separate at the top of the route, and he also brought up how two tight ends can really shake things up for a defense. You start to get into that Travis Kelce Y-iso type of stuff, and all of a sudden, the defenses playing against your offense have to change.
“Generally when you’re in 12 [personnel, with one running back and two tight ends], if you’ve got two ‘Y’ [in-line] tight ends, you’re going to get base defense,” Beane said. “When he’s in the game, we’re going to get nickel as if we’re in 11 [personnel, with one back, one tight ends, and three receivers]. So it’s just a different style player. He’s 6-3, just under 250. He’s not a receiver, but he’s more of a receiver. We’re not going to be having him block a lot of six-techs [defensive ends].”
And this is where Buffalo’s offense should be very different in 2023 and beyond.
“When they go with Knox and Kincaid on the field together, and they will, the first question is, how do defenses match up,” Greg said. “Defenses will do different things — it will be dependent on down and distance and a number of things. But Kincaid does have the movement ability to line up as the boundary X — the single receiver to the short side of the field on the back side of trips. Now, trips would include Knox, because when you’re lining up in 12 personnel, he’d be one of the receivers to the three-receiver side. Defenses have to give away some things when the tight end is the receiver to that short side.”
The Houston Texans with new QB C.J. Stroud and OC Bobby Slowik
The Houston Texans made Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud the fulcrum of the offense when they selected him with the second overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. The Texans also took former San Francisco 49ers passing game coordinator Bobby Slowik to make him their offensive coordinator, so you can expect to see a lot of Kyle Shanahan-style concepts in this offense — boot action out of the pocket, a lot of pre-snap motion, and 21 personnel (two running backs, one tight end, two receivers). Shanahan really didn’t have a guy in Brock Purdy who could roll out credibly in 2022, but there was a reason the 49ers traded as much as they did to get Trey Lance.
Stroud, with his ball placement, ability to read the field, and underrated sense of how to attack defenses while on the move, seems like a natural fit. Two of the top five quarterbacks in EPA in the NFL last season with the benefit of pre-snap motion were Purdy and Jimmy Garoppolo, so that’s obviously a San Francisco staple.
Per Sports Info Solutions, Stroud in 2022 completed 98 of 137 passes for 1,233 yards, 632 air yards, 17 touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 135.7 — that passer rating led all FBS quarterbacks.
New Texans OC Bobby Slowik comes from a Kyle Shanahan system that uses motion to maximize things for quarterbacks.
C.J. Stroud with motion last season: 98 of 137 for 1,233 yards, 632 air yards, 17 touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 135.7. 🙂 pic.twitter.com/cj1WaIxpX1
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) May 16, 2023
“Motion is one of those things that — you know how the defense is going to respond based on your tape study,” Greg said. “And your quarterback has to be comfortable with all that. Peyton Manning didn’t want motion at all, because Peyton Manning wanted the defense to be static. He was really comfortable with, ‘Hey, I know what the defense is, I know exactly what I’m getting. I don’t want the defense moving three seconds before I snap the ball.’ Stroud is used to motion, but again, the college game is different based on the wide side of the field. But he’s obviously been in an offense that deploys motion, so it’s not as if this will be brand new. What he has to learn is how defenses will react to it. It’s different in the NFL than it is in college football.”
The Seattle Seahawks with new WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
The Seattle Seahawks ran a lot of two-tight end sets last season, so they weren’t running a ton of three-receiver sets in context of the modern NFL. 447 dropbacks with three receivers last season, which ranked 21st in the league,, and in those dropbacks, Geno Smith completed 260 of 387 passes for 2,790 yards, 1,866 air yards, 20 touchdowns, seven interceptions, and a passer rating of 97.8, which was the fourth-best in the league behind the efforts of the Lions, Dolphins, and Bengals.
So given that, and given the fact that the 20th overall selection of Ohio State receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, what does this tell us about the progression of Seattle’s passing game, and how does Smith-Njigba fit into that with his specific attributes, and those of D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett? The Seahawks have been saying for years that they want their receivers to be interchangeable as inside/outside guys, and this could be a major positive step in that very direction.
“It’s going to be interesting, because last year, they had the third-highest percentage of 12 personnel in the NFL,” Greg said. “And Geno Smith was outstanding throwing out of 12 personnel. He had the second-most passing attempts out of 12 personnel behind only Patrick Mahomes, which might surprise some people. But the Seahawks obviously felt that they needed to increase their explosive play element, ir they wouldn’t have taken Smith-Njigba with the 20th pick in the draft. He only played about 60 snaps in 2022 due to injury, but in 2021, 104 of his 113 targets came out of the slot. Now, I think that because of his size and his ability to separate as a route-runner, he can play outside as well. And that’s fine, because Tyler Lockett can play in the slot, as well, He’s done that much of his career. So, they certainly have versatility now with Lockett and Smith-Njigba in how they can align.
“The larger point is, I would expect their percentage of 12 personnel to decrease, and their percentage of 11 personnel to increase.”
