Talking Points
- Bong Joon-ho's Parasite made history at the Oscars
- The COVID-19 toll jumped to 1,482 after a counting method change
- Switzerland voted yes in a referendum to protect LGBT+ rights
- Thailand's worst-ever mass-shooting left 29 dead
- Narendra Modi's BJP fell short in Delhi's crucial district vote
- Sudan agreed to send former-strongman Bashir to The Hague
- Angela Merkel's – and Germany's – succession plan collapsed
- The US charged Chinese soldiers over the huge Equifax hack
- Barclay's boss Jes Staley was investigated over Epstein ties
- T-Mobile and Sprint got the nod for a controversial merger
Deep Dive
Reports of the end of Syria's civil war have been greatly exaggerated over the years. Now, after nine ruinous years, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) has advanced into the last rebel-held province - Idlib. It's a cold and bloody fight to the finish.
Highway to hell
Syria's main transport artery, the M5 highway, runs from Aleppo in the north to Damascus in the south. For the duration of the war it has been outside the control of the ruling regime – a potent reminder of Bashar al-Assad's formerly tenuous hold over his country. Roads are obviously vital for resupply and power projection like few other pieces of infrastructure (look no further than the Romans on this point). Which is why the SAA has fought, bitterly, to regain control of the M5. The last major city holding out was Saraqib. This week it fell.
The inexorable advance of Syrian troops and armour, backed by Russian air power, is something we've seen repeatedly over the last four years. Their opponents were a coalition of Turkish-backed islamist fighters (many still under the banner of the rebranded Syrian al Qaeda, Hayat Tahrar al-Sham). As their positions around the town were vaporised by the Kremlin's ordinance, the defenders withdrew further west to Idlib city. What has been different about this series of grinding engagements is the shelling of Turkey's own troops.
Ankara has maintained observer positions for its troops in the border province of Idlib ostensibly to prevent refugee migration into Turkey. This week several of those positions were shelled by pro-regime forces, leaving 14 Turkish soldiers dead. As justification for the shelling it was suggested that Turkey had been using the sites not only to prevent border crossings but also to harbour its favoured militias. Ankara responded indignantly. By that we mean, they extracted swift vengeance by blowing up 100 SAA positions .
Much of the reporting this week noted that the risk of a full-on shooting war between Syria and Turkey is low. This is true, but it's also worth noting that if anything could enrage Damascus enough to escalate the conflict, it would be the downing of its vaunted combat helicopters. Which is exactly what the rebels in Idlib did this week with a shoulder-launched anti-aircraft missile. There's every possibility that Turkey is not merely supplying its allied fighters with the tools to decisively shift the balance of the battlefield, but also stealthily deploying its own special forces in offensive actions. The Syrian government has complained bitterly about the presence of Turkey's armed forces on their side of the border but they hardly have a leg to stand on. After all, Russian mercenaries (note: calling them mercenaries instead of special forces is a distinction without a difference at this point) are embedded in SAA front line units too.
Not wanting to miss out on the action, Israel joined the fray by launching a volley of missiles over the Golan Heights. These missiles were either thwarted by interceptor missiles (if you believe the Syrian state news) or on-target (if you believe everyone else).
A(nother) disaster
There comes a point when the phrase "humanitarian emergency" loses its urgency. What's happening in Idlib now is just the latest paroxysm in the historic catastrophe that is the Syrian civil war. At least 800,000 have been displaced in Idlib since December. A staggering 142,000 in just three days this week, as Russian airstrikes started hammering Saraqib. All of the camps for Internally Displaced People (IDP) are huddled close to the relative safety of the Turkish border. Its denizens are muddy, frost-bitten and lacking both in food to nourish their bodies and the fuel to warm them. Tens of thousands are sleeping in the frigid open air. You have seen these images time and time again. The NGOs running IDP camps are begging for international aid – they are overwhelmed.
And while the suffering of hundreds of thousands – no, millions – continues to worsen, there appear to be few positive signs on the horizon. That's because everyone is working the angles. Turkey is holding the line to prevent a wider exodus from Idlib. Ankara, which is already playing the begrudging host to some 3.5 million Syrian refugees, fears another 3 million could cross over if Idlib city falls to the regime. Russia is trying to cement itself as both chief-mediator and chief-club-swinger in the region. The US is trying to drive a wedge between Ankara and Moscow by backing their recalcitrant Turkish allies. It's all still, in a word, a mess. And it goes without saying that the great power conflict (which has has dragged this war out and amplified its misery) will not be resolved when the Syrian flag is hoisted above Idlib city.
Worldlywise
The pluck of the Irish
On Saturday Ireland's enduring political duopoly of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael was broken by the left-wing Sinn Feín. The election delivered the party of Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness an unheralded 37 seats in the 160-seat Dáil Éireann, thus ending a century of increasingly-sclerotic centre-right rule. Fianna Fáil slumped in just ahead with 38 seats, while former-Taoiseach Leo Varadkar's Fine Gael took 35. Both have ruled out forming a coalition with the high-spending, high-taxing left-wingers. But a return to centre-right rule seems unlikely given that this meagre arrangement (minority government with supply and confidence agreements) is what sapped major party support over the last four years. And so, another election beckons.
The name Sinn Feín carries with it a lot of history . Gerry Adams, the black balaclavas and AK-47s of the Irish Republican Army, Bobby Sands wasting away in H-Block, and the eventual victory of the Good Friday Agreement. And for the longest time it seemed to be too much baggage to be taken seriously in a modern, peaceful, post-Troubles Ireland. But with the elevation of Mary Lou McDonald to top job, Sinn Feín has moved from a militant anachronism on the fringes of Leinster House to a powerful third-way alternative. Now, holding positions of considerable power in the parliaments of both Northern Ireland and the Republic, unification seems closer than ever .
Stone cold justice
This week the curtains finally came down on the career of long-time GOP operative (read: Watergate scandal alum) Roger Stone . DC prosecutors recommended that he faced 7-9 years over his involvement in the morass of the 2016 election Wikileaks affair. Luckily, his long-time friend Donald Trump happened to be in a position to help: Trump tweeted about the recommendation, describing it as "a horrible and very unfair situation", and "a miscarriage of justice". Within hours, the Department of Justice revised its recommendation in favour of a significantly lighter sentence. Was this just an oversight and rectification, you ask? Just ask the four prosecutors from the case who resigned in protest.
So egregious were these presidential interventions that even Trump's consummate allies are expressing concern. Attorney General William Barr , the man who (it cannot be stressed enough) spiked Robert Mueller's findings on Trump's obstruction of justice, has reached the end of his extra-length tether. The AG said that the president is making it "impossible for me to do my job". Barr at least still has a job, unlike several of the government officials who testified against Trump during the impeachment trial. This is a president who has quite clearly abused power in office and survived punishment; pity those who were expecting him to be cowed by the experience.
The Best of Times
When did you first fall in love?
Well, if we were to answer for our species, it would've been somewhere in-between our reptilian ancestors and our proto-mammalian ancestors. If you have any hope of knowing the secrets of the heart , you need to know how and why they emerged in the first place.
And if you're not into evolutionary science...
The Worst of Times
Parsing press releases
Britain's major oil company BP has, under the tenure of new chief Bernard Looney, promised to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. If this seems like a chimerical goal for a fossil fuel extractor, you may be onto something. This excellent analysis of BP's plans reveals a great deal of window-dressing without any actual commitment to depart from its current trajectory, which is to increase oil and gas production by a fifth over the next decade. Be sceptical when heavy emitters throw around lofty promises. Very sceptical.
Unmet promise
In a major setback, a pair of experimental drugs intended to halt the progress of Alzheimer's has failed. Pharmaceutical giants Roche and Eli Lilly have been testing therapies as part of a trial at Washington University in St. Louis. The prospects of targeting gene mutations for those living with autosomal dominant Alzheimer's has dimmed.
Weekend Reading
Quote of the week
"If you look at meat processing, if you look at media, if you look at plagiarism detection software, if you look at baby formula, if you look at pacemakers, everywhere you look, you see markets that have been rolled up and monopolised."
– Sarah Miller on her crusade to break up Big-Everything.
Headline of the week
''How much should we really drink?" – Financial Times (sorry in advance).
Special mention
Whichever one of these two photogenic mice got the subway snack.
Some choice long-reads
- Businessweek downloads a predatory loan app in Kenya
- The Guardian visits the frontline of the 'War on the Poor'
- Foreign Affairs applies a stress-test to Xi Jinping's credentials
Tom Wharton
