The Weekly Wrap for Saturday, 16 February 2019

Talking points A street battle in Port-au-Prince. PHOTO: Hector Retamal / AFP Haiti was rocked by deadly protests over President Moïse's profligacy Nasa bid adieu to its intrepid Mars rover 'Opportunity' Separate deadly bombings targeted security forces in Iran and India Russia planned to 'unplug' its internet from the rest of the world A report warned of an impending catastrophe: insect extinction New Yorkers killed-off Amazon's heavily-subsidised campus in Queens The EU added Saudi Arabia to a terrorism-financing blacklist Brexit latest: May defeated in Westminster by hardline Tories A new book alleged that 4 in every 5 Vatican priests are gay A Thai princess's tilt at government was challenged in court Deep Dive Political rallies in Lagos are infused with music and dance. PHOTO: Andrew Esiebo / Guardian In the next two months 1.8 Billion people (a quarter of the world's population) will elect new leaders, as Nigeria, Indonesia and India go to the polls. These are (respectively) the seventh, fourth, and second most populous nations on the planet. And the results of their elections will have profound consequences on regional and global politics. Which is why this week's Deep Dive kicks off a 3-part series examining exactly what's at stake. First up, Nigeria. 'Mr Honesty' on the ballot Amid a continent making piecemeal democratic progress Nigeria stands out as something of a success story. And it needs to be. Four years ago the one-time dictator Muhammadu Buhari swept to power on an anti-corruption platform aimed squarely at his avaricious predecessor, Goodluck Jonathan. And we mean swept literally – his supporters carry twig brooms as symbols of cleansing and renewal. But for many of Nigeria's 190 million citizens the reformed 'Mai Gaskiya' ('Mr Honesty') has been a flop. Buhari's first term came and went, without any meaningful prosecution of the former administration. And little was done about the quotidian corruption in Nigeria's public sector. Meanwhile, economic growth has stagnated, and Nigeria is facing a "lost decade". That may sound like a whimsical economic term but it would be calamitous for the 86m Nigerians who live in extreme poverty. Furthermore, the dispute over federal spending between Nigeria's poorer northern states and the southern oil-producing states in the Gulf of Guinea has been largely ignored. Today, Nigeria is voting on whether to stay its course or to replace Mr Buhari. If it chooses the latter; the man most-likely to win is Atiku Abubakar. The vivacious (and fabulously wealthy) former vice president promises to be a breath of fresh air after Buhari's stultifying term. But, as you may already have guessed, Abubakar too is facing a string of serious corruption allegations. It's worth noting that in a country where half the population is between the ages of 18 and 35, both major candidates are in their 70s. Other notable challengers in the fray today include the suave former pop-star and evangelical preacher Chris Okotie (that's his lively rally pictured above).  North wind blowing While there has been some sporadic unrest, this election season has proven largely peaceful. All major candidates signed a 'peace accord' to avoid a recurrence of the post-election violence that saw over 1,000 deaths in 2011. And yet, conflict – particularly the growing strength of Boko Haram in the country's north and east – is a key voter issue. The terrorist group has evolved in recent years from a religious sect to a brutal militia (arguably in response to marginalisation and abuse by sub-Saharan governments). It is most active around the rapidly-drying Chad Basin which straddles Nigeria, Niger, Chad, Cameroon and the Central African Republic. Another major point of conflict is inter-communal strife. In the state of Kaduna, just north of the capital Abuja, this tension is close to the surface. There the Muslim-majority community comprises transient cattle herders who regularly clash with the resident Christian farmers. Locals refer to the northern part of the state as "Mecca", and to the southern reaches as "Jerusalem" – in that regard Kaduna's story is a microcosm of Nigeria's own.  Further South, the Niger Delta Avengers (NDA) have also issued threats of violence. After Buhari's election in 2015 the NDA bombed oil pipelines (the lifeblood of the Nigerian economy) with great gusto. This year the NDA has oscillated between the carrot and stick, formally backing Abubakar, and threatening more explosions if he loses.   Election year fever 84m Nigerians are registered to vote today. That figure pales in comparison to the 190m Indonesians who'll declare their preferences on April 17. South East Asia's most populous nation is in the throes of a fascinating duel between President Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo and his would-be usurper Prabowo Subianto. The well-regarded Jokowi is battling to overcome a slump and has drafted a conservative Muslim onto his ticket to push back against claims that he's out of touch with his increasingly religious constituents.  And if Indonesia's election day is to be a massive democratic party then India's general election in that same month will be nothing short of a nation-wide, multi-day carnival. There, 900m people will cast a vote to decide who represents them. Nine... hundred... million. For now Narendra Modi's ruling coalition retains a firm lead over the opposition. But polls show that the world's largest democracy may well be headed for a hung parliament. Stay tuned for the next two instalments of dēmokratiā writ large. Worldlywise Baghouz is being reduced to rubble. PHOTO: AP The end of a caliphate The town of Dabiq features prominently in extremist Sunni interpretations of the apocalypse. It's said that there, in the north of Syria, an ultimate battle would lead to the true believers overcoming infidel hordes. The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria's well-oiled propaganda machine made this prophecy central to the caliphate's founding myth (they named their English-language recruitment magazine after the town). But ISIS has been denied a dogmatically-significant last stand – Dabiq was flattened by Turkish artillery in 2016 and fell promptly. Today, ISIS is out of prophecies, fighters and territory. The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have corralled around 1,000 militants into a tent city – in a little over one square kilometre – near the town of Baghouz in Deir ez-Zor province. All who remain are the zealots and the foreign fighters with nowhere else to go. They have hidden themselves amongst family members above and below the ground. It is an ignominious end. There have been defections in small numbers but, if Mosul and Raqqa are any measure to go by, there will be no mass surrender. The SDF are suffering grievously in close-quarters fighting: they battle all day to seize a single home only to lose it overnight after a tunnel-borne ISIS counter-attack. But this last stand is grinding inexorably towards the only possible conclusion. As British authorities ponder the fate of the teenaged ISIS bride Shamima Begum there are hundreds of ex-fighters and their family members awaiting an unfamiliar fate in the refugee camps and detention centres of the Middle East. And it should go without saying that the loss of territory does not in any way equate to a loss of power; expect a vicious chain of suicide bombings to mark ISIS's metamorphosis back into a traditional terror group. Nursing mothers and their sick children. PHOTO: Francis R Malasig / EPA-EFE Viral stupidity There are a lot of silly outmoded things knocking at the door of popular culture in 2019. Low-rise jeans is one. Measles is another. Thanks to the breathtaking stupidity of a small handful of the global population the scourge of measles is once again running through communities from Australia to Madagascar. We'll start in the Philippines, which was scandalised by a vaccine scare in 2017. The ensuing scepticism over Sanofi's vaccines has opened the door to an acute outbreak of measles – some 4,000 cases have emerged in the last two months alone. This is a potent reminder of just how damaging faulty vaccine scandals (like the contemporary occurrences in China) can be. And in Madagascar an emergency vaccination program has not been enough to prevent the deaths of 922 children and adults since the end of 2018.  Both these cases deserve our attention and sympathy. However, in the United States and Australia, two countries battling with recent measles outbreaks, our judgement should not be reserved. In two of the wealthiest nations on Earth a small minority of people are paying for their scepticism with other people's lives. Just this week the wife of the Trump administration's communications director launched into a tirade filled with anti-vaxxer pablum. In a series of tweets she wrote, “Here we go LOL #measlesoutbreak on CNN #fake #hysteria. The entire Baby Boom population alive today had the #Measles as kids. Bring back our #ChildhoodDiseases they keep you healthy & fighting cancer". This is a profoundly ignorant take, and one repeated in Australia regularly.  The Best of Times A pleasant surprise. PHOTO: Nasa Re-greening Asia North America is gradually transforming into one giant cornfield. South America is being raked and burnt by soy and cattle farmers. Yet Asia, home to countries with a shocking environmental record, is returning to green. New Nasa satellite imagery shows that since the early 2000s we've added 5% more green cover to the planet's surface and it's largely come from China and India. These industrial powerhouses have added an Amazon rainforest's worth of vegetation in a little under two decades. However, it's important to state that not all of this is native revegetation – Nasa's orbital cameras can't differentiate between newly-planted fields and newly-reclaimed forests.   Not that black panther Will Burrard-Lucas is a lucky man. This week he became the first person in a century to photograph the vanishingly rare African black leopard (AKA black panther). The stunning shots were taken in Kenya's Laikipia Wilderness Camp. We could use a lot of words tracing their slender silhouette or describing their graceful gait, but it's a big deal so please look at the pictures. The Worst of Times This is what a hero looks like. PHOTO: AFP Political prisoners Oriol Junqueras might look like a middle-aged bureaucrat – and he is – but don't be fooled by appearances; he's a champion of his people. The former vice president of Spain's restive Catalonia region is standing trial in Madrid on charges of rebellion. He and 11 other colleagues have been deemed responsible for the 1-O independence referendum that threatened to split Spain. Junqueras, who may be jailed for 25 years, has steadfastly refused to answer his accusers questions. He ought to be heard in his own words, "Nothing we did is a crime, nothing, absolutely nothing. Voting in a referendum is not a crime". The trial in Madrid threatens to revive the boisterous Catalan calls for self-rule.   Gruesome finds In other news, it's been a banner week for body parts washing up on beaches. Thai police are at their wits' end over a recent invasion of corpses. The torsos of two decapitated men and the sawn-off head of a woman have all been recently discovered along the coast. At least one of the bodies is tattooed in English and is believed to be the remains of a foreigner. And in Vancouver, the undisputed home of weird body parts washing ashore, yet another severed human foot has appeared. That makes it 15 feet in 12 years! Local authorities still have absolutely no idea what is going on. Neither do we. Weekend Reading Quote of the week "Tonypandy - villain" - UK Labour's John McDonnell kicked off a minor culture war with just two words when asked whether Winston Churchill was a hero or a villain. The South Welsh mining town of Tonypandy was the scene of infamous strikes and riots in 1910-11. Then, Churchill ordered in the Lancashire Fusiliers (one miner died and 500 were wounded by British arms). If the term "villain" sends Churchill hagiographers into a fit we'd hate to see what would happen if any Bengalis were asked for their opinion of the wartime PM...   Headline of the week Girl falls into giant panda enclosure, pandas do nothing - New Zealand Herald Featured long-reads from inkl publishers: Businessweek salutes Putin's empire The Economist lines up with millennial socialists USA Today Sports Media Group hears the stories fighters tell EDITOR'S NOTE: Our publishing partner, friend, and inspiration, Maria Ressa, has been released on bail in the Philippines. The fact that she was even arrested yesterday on cyber libel charges is worthy of ridicule. Ressa is the founder and CEO of Rappler, a digital news powerhouse in the Philippines. It has exploded in popularity under her guidance due to a deceptively simple formula: holding the government to account. This, of course, rings like an insult in the ears of Rodrigo Duterte – who has name-checked Maria and advocated for Rappler to be shuttered. His government has pursued a sustained campaign against Rappler, accusing it of US-funded subversion, slamming it with an astronomical tax bill, and now directly harassing its executive. Please take a second to consider supporting Rappler so that they can continue their vital work in service of the 105 Million people of the Philippines. Tom Wharton @trwinwriting P.S. Don't forget to follow inkl on Twitter and Facebook.