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Tom Wharton

The Weekly Wrap for Saturday, 14 July 2018

DEEP DIVE
Britain's government is once again in turmoil. Senior ministers have quit the Cabinet over Theresa May's Brexit plan. Conservatives are pushing for a vote of no-confidence. The deadline for negotiations with Brussels is fast approaching, and a deal still remains beyond Britain's grasp. Into this mess steps Donald J. Trump, a man who is not known for exuding calmness.
The special relationship. PHOTO: AFP
Last Friday May hosted her belligerent Cabinet at the PM's country residence, Chequers. It was billed as a showdown between the hardcore Brexiteers and May's own. But we now know that the showdown has only just begun. At Chequers the embattled PM went on the offensive, demanding fealty from the likes of David Davis (Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union), and Boris Johnson (Foreign Secretary). It was gunboat diplomacy at its finest: the business cards of a local taxi company sat atop a table in the entrance hall (read: if you don't get onboard you'll be fired immediately and lose your government car). It didn't work.

Davis resigned within 48-hours. He argued that he could no longer represent the government's position on Brexit in good faith (it has been suggested that he would have resigned on the spot but didn't want to catch a taxi home). BoJo followed him out the door a day later. After months of agonising white-anting, the hard-Brexiteers have revealed their denouement. Their plan, to topple May's government and spit in the eye of Brussels, is a cavalier roll of the dice. Whether or not Davis will get his "alternative Brexit white paper" published is still a mystery. What's not is the fact that his Department for Exiting the European Union has fought May's Brexit plan tooth-and-nail, and that will continue. Brussels, meanwhile, has made its own position clear: none of this is our problem.

So May is frantically whipping her herd into order; she has implored her colleagues to get behind her or risk Jeremy Corbyn romping home in another snap election. In fact, if her government survives these next few days and weeks it will be in a much better position to push through her kid-gloves Brexit. Under that plan the European Court of Justice will retain a significant amount of power over Britain and there will be tight 'regulatory alignment'. Yet even with all these concessions to Brussels Brexit is going to hurt

All of which is to say that it was a week from hell for May. And then Donald Trump arrived.

The US President spent the early part of the week assailing his European allies at the annual NATO summit. In his now-familiar modus operandi the president took to Twitter while on Airforce One with threats to withdraw from NATO unless countries increased their defence spending. It was a strange position to have taken considering most members have already agreed to the 2024 benchmark of 2% of GDP. Rather than taking credit for having quickly achieved a long-promised goal, Trump went on the attack. In front of the cameras he made unsubstantiated and outrageous claims (about Germany being under Russia's thumb), filled press conferences with invective, and repeated his claim of being a "very stable genius".

His touchdown at Stansted Airport could hardly have come at a worse time. Any hope that his freewheeling effrontery may have been dampened during the flight evaporated almost immediately. The president made every effort to avoid London (and the giant protests his presence would trigger) but the demonstrations followed him.

Something clearly riled Trump. It could be the cool reception he got from the other leaders. Or maybe it was the 'Trump baby' blimp flying above London. Either way, he was combative enough to sit down for a wholly undiplomatic interview with The Sun. In it Trump complained that Theresa May had not heeded his advice on Brexit ("she didn't listen to me"). In his eyes May's pursuit of a 'soft Brexit' may have killed off the chance for a standalone US-UK trade deal. Trump's dismissal of others is well-known, but talking up Boris Johnson while flattening May seemed particularly churlish. Trump also used the opportunity to insult London Mayor Sadiq Khan, a successful and thoughtful leader who has regularly challenged Trump's views on immigrants.

One can't help but wonder what the Queen thought of him. 
WORLDLYWISE
Rescue efforts continued throughout the week. PHOTO: Kyodo / Reuters
The residents of Japan are still reeling from Super Typhoon Maria. The storm system dumped heavy rain on central and western prefectures to devastating effect over the weekend. The rain swamped fields and villages, swelled beyond flood plains and triggered mudslides. Flash-floods tore through some towns with such ferocity that entire homes disappeared. During the week some 75,000 emergency workers were deployed; it was then that the sheer scale of the catastrophe became known. The death toll presently stands at 204, making it the worst weather-related disaster in three decades. A further 28 are still missing.

As the search-and-rescue operations petered out the clean-up work began. The titanic task is being tackled in adverse conditions; the hammering rain has let up, only to be replaced by scorching summer heat. The mercury has regularly topped 30 degrees Celsius in some areas, presenting a distinct challenge for stricken residents who have been without water for a week. A slurry of mud, trash and other peoples belongings coats entire prefectures. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has toured the flood-zone to meet survivors; he's pledged $18m in emergency aid and a further $312m in tax relief. Now begins a painful process for farmers (both subsistence and corporate): clearing fields and paddocks to see how much of their livelihood has been swept away. 
The moment. PHOTO: Darren Staples / Reuters
The pointy end. On Sunday a sleek French team will line up against a valiant (if battered) Croatian squad in the 2018 FIFA World Cup final. 81,000 delirious fans will fill Moscow's Luzhniki with thunder. 90 minutes of football will be played, or maybe 120 (given Croatia's recent run). When all is said and done FIFA officials will hand the World Cup to either Hugo Lloris or Luka Modrić. The streets of Paris and Zagreb will be perfect foils to one another, ecstasy and sorrow. And either way there will be an alarming number of flares lit. The unlikeliness of this pairing is apparent: a football powerhouse of 66 million people, taking on a minnow of just 4 million. 

Thousands of hearts have been broken on the way to this decider. In the first semi-final France sank Belgium in the professional manner they've shown right through this tournament. Kylian Mbappé accelerated through a Belgian defence that earlier teams had found impregnable. Pogba too was all class. Meanwhile, Kevin de Bruyne continued his own magic show up the other end; conjuring shots out of nothing. But he, along with Hazard, Fellaini and Lukaku, met their match in Lloris. France's captain and goalkeeper was the shore on which Belgian dreams were dashed. To add insult to injury Belgian commuters were forced to listen to La Marseillaise on their way to work the next day thanks to a bet between the French and Belgian rail authorities. 

The second semi-final reminded us that football is not - at least in 2018 - "coming home". England roared into the lead from the early moments of the game when Kieran Tripper's beautiful free kick curled into the net. The men with three lions on their shirts owned the first half, but a winning blow cruelly eluded them. An apparition of past failures must have hovered somewhere over Moscow when Harry Kane hit the post from barely a metre away. In the second half Croatia raised their flag; Modrić flew at the ball like a possessed man, and Ivan Perišić tore strips from England's flagging defence. It seemed only a matter of time. The irrepressible Perišić levelled the scores in the 68th minute and during extra time Mario Mandžukić broke England's heart.
WHAT ELSE HAPPENED
Jailed for reporting the truth. PHOTO: Ann Wang / Reuters
  • A Myanmar court sentenced two Reuters journalists for revealing state secrets; the disclosures relate to Myanmar's successful ethnic cleansing of the Rohingya people
  • Success in Thailand; all 12 boys from the trapped junior football team were rescued (along with their coach) after a frantic international effort
  • Donald Trump tapped conservative justice Brett Kavanaugh to fill Anthony Kennedy's Supreme Court seat; the appointment of another Constitutional originalist tilts the US court further to the right
  • Ireland took one step closer to implementing a total ban on goods produced on occupied Palestinian land; the bill draws attention to the economic output of Israel's illegal settlements
  • Taliban fighters equipped with night-vision goggles launched a sweeping pre-dawn assault on military bases in Kunduz province: up to 40 Afghan soldiers were killed
  • If the fuel economy and emissions of your Nissan seem too good to be true, they are. The Japanese carmaker became the latest industry giant to admit widespread misconduct and falsified data
  • Greece ejected four Russian officials in a widening diplomatic incident; Moscow stands accused of amplifying local opposition to the historic Greece-Macedonia deal
  • Comcast fired another salvo at Fox in the Sky bidding war; the new bid values Sky at £26b and may derail Fox's quixotic, oft-thwarted mission
  • A discovery challenged firmly-held precepts about early human history; ancient humans existed in what is now China hundreds of thousands of years earlier than previously believed
  • Italian Serie A football club Juventus signed the prolific Real Madrid striker Christiano Ronaldo for a cool €117m; Italian newspapers gushed about the 'deal of the century'
THE BEST OF TIMES...
Freedom in Germany. PHOTO: AFP
The long-suffering artist and intellectual Liu Xia arrived in Berlin this week after years of house-arrest in China. Her confinement began in 2010 when her late-husband became just the third Nobel Peace laureate to win the prestigious award while in prison. That Liu Xiaobo's lifetime of non-violent struggle had drawn international attention was a humiliation for Beijing, and his wife bore the cost. Liu Xia's condition worsened after the death of her husband last year; it took a personal plea from German Chancellor Angela Merkel for the authorities to err on the side of leniency.

Peace at last for Ethiopia and Eritrea. The leaders of these unwilling neighbours signed a comprehensive peace treaty to end two decades of instability and animosity. Eritrea won a 30-year war of independence against Ethiopia in 1991 but neither side could win the peace. Territorial disputes festered until war again broke out between the two countries (1998-2000). The not-quite-peace-not-quite-war that persisted until this week has damaged both countries economically. But if this breakthrough leads to a final agreement on the border it will be a great day for East Africa. 
THE WORST OF TIMES...
Complete control. PHOTO: AFP

Last year Turkey voted in a referendum that proposed a drastic shake-up of the country's political system. To the dismay of millions (mostly wealthy, educated and liberal), the vote came down in favour of expanding presidential power into just about every aspect of national governance. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's name is a byword for 'strongman', a man who has brought every restive institution to heel. This week Erdoğan accepted his new powers with glee; he celebrated the occasion by firing 18,000 dissenting civil servants, police officers and academics.

One step forward, another step back. While the Western media was focusing on Liu Xia's release, another Chinese dissident was jailed for 13 years. Qin Yongmin received the sentence on charges of 'state subversion'. Qin's advocacy for a peaceful transition from Communist rule to democracy has been seized upon as a campaign to undermine the Party. He is just one of many pro-democracy activists in China who quietly pay a heavy price for their beliefs: if he serves his full sentence he will have spent more than half his life in prison.

P.S.
Your weekend long reads...
Quote of the week... 
"Dear America, appreciate your allies. After all you don't have that many." - Frank advice from one Donald (Tusk) to another (Trump)

What to watch next week...
Another broadside aimed directly at Beijing. It appears as though Washington is preparing to place punitive tariffs on a further $200b worth of Chinese good unless certain 'industrial policies' are reversed. That's a reference to the Made In China 2025 initiative to make China the ascendant producer of high-technology manufacturing. The more America's economic might is challenged, the more aggressive the countermeasures. 

One last thing... 
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Tom Wharton for inkl
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