To take stock of what has occurred in Catalonia, we'll start at the top. Spain sacked the Catalan government and called for new elections to usher in a more compliant regime. Upon news of their impending arrests, former leader Carles Puigdemont and four of his cabinet ministers
slipped out of Barcelona and across the French border. For now they are holed up in Belgium seeking legal advice. Back home some view them as the legitimate government-in-exile; others decry their cowardice. Their stay in Belgium may be rather brief since Madrid has begun the process to broadcast Europe-wide arrest warrants.
Later in the week Puigdemont's deputy and seven other ex-cabinet members answered their summons to Spain's High Court. They were promptly jailed, pending trial, for the serious crimes levelled against them: rebellion, sedition and the misuse of public funds. Rebellion carries a maximum 30-year sentence in Spain. The courts have also demanded the return of €6.7m from the former government: funds which were allegedly misappropriated for the referendum. With the majority of Catalonia's elected executive either behind bars or in self-imposed exile, agitation returned to the streets. Thousands rallied in Barcelona on Thursday night chanting,
"the streets will always be ours".
But it must also be noted that the Catalans are not a unified identity. Major parties within their parliament had opposed and boycotted the referendum. The counter-protests of nationalists against separation have at times numbered in the tens of thousands.
In a televised interview Puigdemont lambasted Spanish leader Mariano Rajoy and asserted that this "is no longer
an internal Spanish affair. The international community, and especially the European community, must realise the danger..." It sounded more like a lament than it did an exhortation. The simple fact is that the European Union has been unwilling to communicate a meaningful position on the Catalan bid for independence, much less provide leadership. In fact the EU swung behind Madrid almost from the start, pointing out that Spain would sink into recession without one of its most productive regions.
This is why Puigdemont's plea sounded so desperate: when the EU's moral stance on self-determination and democracy came into conflict with the realities of another Spanish recession, the EU's self-interest was the clear winner.
In Iraqi Kurdistan a similar dynamic was witnessed. The overreach of Kurdish forces in the oil-rich city of Kirkuk would never be permitted by Baghdad: the resources are too valuable.
On Wednesday the long-serving president of Iraqi Kurdistan, Masoud Barzani, stepped down with his legacy in tatters. But the Barzani name, carried before Masoud by his father Mustafa (the feted independence fighter and leader), will remain at the centre of the region's parochial political scene. Nechirvan Barzani, nephew to Masoud, will now assume the executive face with
the dizzying task of negotiating a settlement with Baghdad from a position of weakness.
The newest Barzani will survey his autonomous region with dismay. He must find a way to channel the anger of his people. The shock referendum prompted an equally shocking reaction from Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi: the deployment of ground troops into Kirkuk, Sinjar and the Nineveh Plains. There was limited fighting between Kurdish forces and their one-time allies as the peshmerga had little choice but to retreat. The end result is that
some 180,000 people, mostly Kurds, have been displaced from their homes.
The forceful response has not only bruised the pride of the peshmerga but also revealed that the United States were fair-weather friends. Now that the usefulness of the Kurdish military has been expended in America's fight against ISIS, Washington has simply turned a blind eye. This continues a long tradition of America simply abandoning local proxies when they no longer suit American interests. Readers may draw parallels between early US support for Ho Chi Minh, or say, the Afghani Mujahideen.
The situation now in Kurdistan is vexed. Baghdad is demanding that the borders and the international airport be returned to federal control. The Kurds can also scarcely countenance relinquishing control of the all-important Syrian
crossing at Feysh Khabour (because doing so would cut communication and transport lines to the fortified Syrian-Kurdish enclave of Rojava). Yet Baghdad demands it.
On the 100-year anniversary of the infamous Balfour Declaration (the document that divvied up the Middle East between the imperial powers of France and Britain) the Kurds remain as far from statehood today as they were then.
When democratic interests come up against economic interests, as they usually do, the latter almost always prevail.
