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Tom Wharton

The Weekly Wrap for Saturday, 23 September 2017

DEEP DIVE
Our television screens, front pages and news-feeds have been inundated with images of the twin tragedies in Mexico and the Caribbean.

First, the now-familiar images of Hurricane Maria tearing across the Atlantic ocean. Great fears were held for the island nations in its path, many of which were still reeling from Hurricane Irma. But as it ploughed through the Caribbean, the region received another sharp blow.

A huge earthquake struck a short distance from Mexico City, toppling buildings and killing hundreds in the capital. In a morbid parallel, it happened on the 32-year anniversary of the deadly 1985 earthquake. Rescue efforts continue as you read this.
A streetscape in Dominica.
By late last weekend the residents of Dominica, Puerto Rico, Haiti, the Dominican Republican and a whole host of smaller nations knew what they were about to endure. Hurricane Maria was fast bearing down on them. It's the second storm of this Atlantic hurricane season to reach Category 5 status on the Saffir-Simpson scale. 

Maria made landfall on Dominica at full strength and the extent of the damage is still being gauged. Aerial footage from Wednesday shows an island sheared of vegetation; crops and trees wrenched from the earth. The storm, like Irma before it, toppled powerlines, smashed boats in the marina and tore the roofs of houses. 15 people have been confirmed dead and as of Friday another 20 were missing. For a good portion of the week the islands residents were left to fend for themselves; cut off from their neighbours by the churning wet mass of Maria.

Puerto Rico suffered a similar fate as it was raked by 175mph winds. A direct hit from Maria wiped out the utilities and upended the island. Cell towers and the electrical grid were crushed by the staggering volume of water dumped on the island. There is no power, water or phone coverage in many places. Rescue teams are forced to navigate the streets by boat after some suburbs received up to 3ft of rainfall. The United States will have to dig deep to repair its dependent territory as the governor described scenes of total devastation. For now Puerto Ricans must overcome the second-order effects of the disaster: mudslides, polluted water sources, disease and building collapses.

As Maria batters Haiti and the Dominican Republic an extraordinary and worrying prediction has been made: recovery and reconstruction efforts in the region will be just as slow and piecemeal  as the 2010 Haiti earthquake response. Why? Because inequality and underdevelopment in the Caribbean are not random phenomena, they are the results of colonial power structures that persist to this day. 

Mexico is no stranger to earthquakes: it lies across or adjacent to six jostling tectonic plates. On the 19th of September 1985 an earthquake shook the country to its core, smashing hundreds of buildings and leaving 10,000 dead. The ancient lake bed on which the capital lies is particularly prone to friction from the fault zones. On Tuesday morning Mexico held an earthquake drill and commemoration of that quake. All across the country people marched into open areas, took shelter and practiced evacuations. None could have realised just how useful those exercises would become.

Just hours later a 7.1 magnitude earthquake violently shook the country for 20 seconds. It was so intense that older and less-secure buildings in the capital collapsed immediately. Huge plumes of mortar dust rose into the sky above the Mexico City. Gas leaks and fires hampered initial rescue efforts, as did delayed collapses. Further south towards the epicentre, entire towns were flattened.

The death toll stands at 273 but is expected to rise, as always, when emergency workers reach rural areas. At least 2,000 more have been injured. The scale of the disaster has been overwhelming. The Enrique Rebsamen school collapsed in on itself, killing 25 children and teachers. Just 11 young girls were pulled from the wreckage. In step with the severity of the earthquake, the local and international aid response has been enormous. Thousands upon thousands of volunteers worked day and night to clear rubble, and among the survivors they've found reasons to hope.

This earthquake comes on the heels of a larger one earlier this month in the south that killed 100 people.
WORLDLYWISE
To many Germans, Angela Merkel is simply 'Mutti'.
Election season - This weekend Germany heads to the polls to grant or deny Angela Merkel a record-tying fourth term as chancellor. Her previous 12 years at the helm of Europe's largest economy have been marked by stability, strong growth and an outsized role in international affairs. It's understandable that many believe a victory for Merkel's CDU party to be a foregone conclusion, giving her the wry epithet of 'the eternal chancellor'.

Yet recent polling (and Merkel's own last-minute flurry of campaigning) shows that her deeply divisive immigration policy is creating drag. Just days out from Sunday's vote, over 30% of the population are undecided or don't intend on voting. Likewise the anti-immigrant AfD party has enjoyed moderate gains. We expect Merkel to form government with either her traditional social democrat rivals (the current arrangement) or a multi-party coalition.

Today, on the other side of the globe, New Zealanders will also fill their ballots. The latest polls show incumbent Prime Minister Bill English shaking off 'Jacindamania' to lead the National Party to a middling victory. Just seven weeks ago an unexpected resignation saw Jacinda Ardern become leader of the opposition. Handing the reigns of a struggling Labour party to a relative novice was described in the local rugby parlance as 'a hospital pass'. Yet despite the critics, her presence and policies have rejuvenated the Labour party and energised its base. However, it appears that the government will be returned on the back of a reliable economic platform.
Western bombs have rendered Raqqa mostly uninhabitable.
Raqqa defence collapses - A surprise offensive by American-backed fighters has pierced through the northern suburbs of Raqqa. The Syrian Democratic Forces completely overwhelmed the remaining defences in the one-time ISIS capital. The SDF expect the city to fall within days. The slow-and-steady clearance operations that were witnessed in the liberation of Mosul have been largely absent from the Raqqa campaign. Unencumbered by relationships with a central government, Western jets have laid waste to the city, dropping 16,500 munitions on it since June. Put another way; a bomb, shell or missile falls on the city every eight minutes. The final count of civilian casualties will soar into the thousands. 

Further south a three-way confrontation threatens to spark a wider conflict. The strategically important city of Deir ez-Zor, capital of its eponymous province, lies on the banks of the Euphrates. Neither rebels nor ISIS have been able to claim the entire city, with a staunchly defended regime air base holding out for years. Now the ISIS garrison in the city is being squeezed from the Russian-backed Syrian army on one side and the US-backed SDF on the other. Just a few kilometres apart, the two rivals have exchanged artillery fire, raising the rather unpleasant prospect of outright confrontation.
TRUMPETER
Trump tempered his criticism of the UN but slammed North Korea and Iran.
  1. Trump threatened North Korea with genocide at the UN.
  2. Macron and May criticised his climate change stance.
  3. But his attempt to scrap the Iran deal faced resistance.
  4. Trump apologised to Erdogan over the security-fiasco.
  5. And Manafort got in even more trouble.
  6. Trump loosened restrictions on drone war.
  7. Mueller zeroed-in on WH documents.
  8. Republicans pushed another draconian health bill.
  9. California sued Trump over the border wall.
  10. Alex Jones said Trump's Cokes are being drugged.
THE BEST OF TIMES...
Another day at the office for Frida.
Lending a paw - Amongst the plethora of horror stories from Tuesday's earthquake, there have been a few wonders. First amongst these is the stories of Frida, a specially-trained Labrador that scoured wreckages for survivors. She's been credited with finding and saving 52 people. Go Frida!

Think global, act local - We should all be taking a leaf out of Clarissa Song's book. The plucky 14-year-old from Singapore has waged a green war to rid her school canteen of disposable plastics. Her brand of environmentalism is noteworthy for being narrow in focus and determined. We applaud her.
THE WORST OF TIMES...
Indonesia's Riau province is ground-zero for deforestation.
Stop using palm oil - It's rubbish. A recent report shows that 47 major food brands from South East Asia are failing to meet their own guidelines for sustainable palm oil use. It's one of the largest contributors to deforestation in the region and is particularly damaging to the irreplaceable marshy wetlands of Indonesia.

No end in sight - This is a subject that we've paid particular attention to over the years. The slow-burn of South Sudan's civil war continues to take a toll across the country. In this latest outburst of violence, rebel forces aligned with Riek Machar attacked a village in the violence-plagued Unity State, killing at least 25. When will the world's youngest country emerge from the war?
P.S.
Your weekend long read... This is straight out of a William Gibson novel: a shadowy (and ostentatiously wealthy) royal family is seeking to privatise space. Luxembourg is a well known tax-haven and now its rulers are attempting to stake out new territory in orbit for their banking system. Extraordinary.

Lastly, if you found this issue of The Weekly Wrap interesting, please take a moment to share it. It helps.
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