The world's largest 'homeless' ethnic group is on the verge of a historic independence vote. The oft-persecuted Kurds plan to secede from Iraq in days and there is little that Iraqi officials can do but look on in horror. Having finally averted a fracture of the state by ISIS, the breakup of modern-day Iraq is imminent nonetheless.
Iraq's parliament has said it
will not accept the results, but few in the Kurdish capital of Erbil are concerned, partly because they control the
oil-rich city of Kirkuk. The international community's pleas to the Kurdish leader Masoud Barzani have also fallen on deaf ears. Turkey in fact has described the secession as a '
historic mistake'.
Fears of further destabilisation in the region are certainly warranted, but there are also two indisputable facts to consider. First, the lived history of the Kurds under Saddam Hussein has poisoned any desire to willingly remaining under Baghdad's rule. Second, there are now 275,000 battle-hardened Peshmerga fighters spread across 36 brigades defending the Kurdish homeland.
The historic region of Kurdistan sprawls across the borders of Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran. It's estimated that over 28 million Kurds live between the Zagros and Taurus mountain ranges. Ethnically different from the Arabs, Turks and Persians, the Kurds maintain a distinct cultural identity and practice many religions.
Theirs' is a familiar tale: an ethnic group promised and denied nationhood by European colonial masters. By the First World War the Ottoman Empire was in terminal decline and France and Britain had stepped in. In 1916 they signed the
Skyes-Picot Agreement to redraw the map of the entire region, carving up territory between themselves and Russia.
But by the mid-point of the 20th century the European empires were waning. That led to increased influence for their favoured ethnic proxies in the region, and to the Kurds ending up stateless and disenfranchised. The rest, as they say, is history.
In a tight field, Iraq has arguably been the most brutal host to its resident Kurdish minority. Baghdad has pursued 'Arabisation policies' (the forceful depopulation of Kurdish areas) since the 1940s. And Saddam Hussein waged
a brutal war against the Kurds in the 1980s, culminating in the worst chemical attack of the post-War era. On March 16, 1988 the Iraqi air force dropped Sarin, VX and mustard gas on Halabja, and killed 3,000 people.
The Kurds meanwhile had attempted several unsuccessful rebellions against Baghdad. So the 2003 invasion of Iraq by coalition forces offered them a rare opportunity, and the Peshmerga militias of two rival Kurdish factions took part in the overthrow of Saddam Hussein. With the approval of the United States, the Kurds formed the autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and helped shape Iraqi politics in the post-war years.
Then the ISIS onslaught in 2014 threatened to break Iraq. Like the national army, Kurdish Peshmerga battalions suffered grievous losses early on. And at one point ISIS threatened Erbil. That proved to be a watershed moment for Kurdish emergence. The Peshmerga have fought an especially bitter war against ISIS, but with significant US-backing they have been able to expand Kurdish territory across the Nineveh plains, into Kirkuk.
Now they are days away from statehood.
Which brings us to Catalonia's fast-approaching independence referendum. Last weekend one million Catalonians marched in their capital, Barcelona. Their regional parliament had just voted into law a referendum bill. This week the issue grew into a full-blown constitutional crisis. 700 Catalonian mayors have been summoned to Madrid and may be charged with misuse of public funds for supporting the referendum. Separatist leaders may face prison sentences.
Spain's highest court has ruled the vote illegal and has ordered all voting material and ballot boxes be confiscated by the police. But the Guardia Civil and Mossos d'Esquadra are on the horns of a dilemma: should they abide by Madrid's prosecutors or support their own people's independence. Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has thrown everything at stopping the vote, short of sending non-Catalonian police into the streets.
The reasons for independence (what Madrid has colourfully termed, 'a constitutional and democratic atrocity') are varied: Catalan is a distinct language and its speakers have celebrated their own culture for hundreds of years. During the Spanish Civil War Catalonia (like the neighbouring Basque region) was a hotbed of republican dissent. The long and bloody siege of Barcelona firmly entrenched divisons between Madrid and the North.
Under Franco's ultranationalist rule Catalonian language and culture was suppressed to an extraordinary degree. It was only after the generalísimo's death in 1975 that an autonomous Barcelona emerged as a possibility. Since then it has been a slow path forward for the secessionists, but Spain's recent economic health has exacerbated discontent. As one of the most wealthy and economically productive regions in the country, Catalonians are exasperated that they receive less from Madrid than they pay in taxes.
There is more to come.
