January could mark seven consecutive months of falling inflation compared to a year earlier. There is no empirical economic agreement on how many months makes a trend, but seven is as good as any for the dismal science.
This is the age of disinflation.
Make no mistake, prices continue rising at an uncomfortable pace, but the rate of increase has slowed considerably since hitting a generation high in June. The latest look comes Tuesday, Valentine’s Day, with the release of the January Consumer Price Index.
Investors have been loving the deceleration of the inflation figures. As inflation has cooled, the appetite for stocks and bonds has warmed up. The Federal Reserve also is fond of the cooler price trends. Chairman Jerome Powell called disinflation “most welcome” two weeks ago after the central bank slowed its own interest rate hikes in response to slower inflation.
So far, this scenario is the very early stages of what’s been called an “immaculate disinflation.” That is the clever name for a best-case economic picture of price hikes stabilizing at a much more comfortable level later this year – around the Fed’s target 2% annual inflation target – and staying there. Not a miracle, exactly, but there is plenty to love about this for investors, workers and consumers.
Inflationary pressures are easing through a combination of higher borrowing costs, repairs to the global supply chain and less consumer demand. A rapid fall may be welcomed by the Fed, but it can turn threatening to corporate profit growth.
Here’s how: Companies have raised wages more than 6% over the past year. That’s sticky inflation. It’s embedded in the cost structure of businesses while those same businesses are no longer able to raise prices as fast as they were months ago. The result squeezes profit margins, and firms look for other ways to boost bottom lines – like shedding jobs.
It's a loathsome cycle the Fed, investors and workers hope to avoid.
