Across the landscape of quarterbacks, everyone’s looking up at Patrick Mahomes.
That’s the only logical takeaway following a season in which the Kansas City Chiefs star took home a Super Bowl title and won NFL MVP honors. And he did it all with a rebuilt receiving corps that no longer featured Tyreek Hill.
That places him on a level unto himself when it comes to 2023’s presumptive starting quarterbacks, but there are contenders to his throne. This fall will be the backdrop to Aaron Rodgers’ attempt to emulate Tom Brady’s late career success, potential revivals from broken veterans once traded for king’s ransoms and vital steps forward for young, emerging passers.
We know who rules that kingdom. We also know who is firmly among the serf class (hello, Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ quarterbacks). But the ground between them is fertile with possibilities. So, with more than three months to go until the start of the 2023 NFL season, let’s take a too-early attempt to break each of these starters into proper tiers.
Tiers below are weighed on a player’s age, past performance and 2022 output. Once separated into a tier, they’re listed in no particular order.
Tier 1: The reigning MVP, Super Bowl champion, and Super Bowl MVP
- Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
It’s been five years since we had an AFC title game without the Chiefs. Mahomes has two Super Bowl rings, three conference crowns, two MVPs and a 63-16 regular season record as a starter over that stretch. He gets his own spot.
Tier 1.5: Also elite, just not as much as Mahomes
- Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
- Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
- Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Each of these quarterbacks can get you to a Super Bowl. Burrow and Hurts already have, though they stopped agonizingly short of a title. Allen helped rebuild the Bills from sad-sack also-ran to perennial AFC contender and has less offensive firepower than either of his less experienced colleagues. He’s also the oldest player on this tier and he just turned 27. These guys are gonna be very good for a very long time.
Tier 2: Capable of greatness, lacking consistency
- Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
- Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
- Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
The guys above this stage have the chops to be elite even in bad circumstances (though, in fairness, they’ve got great supporting casts). The quarterbacks in tier two are capable of being even better, but their fortunes depend more heavily on the support system around them.
Jackson has struggled with poor receiving corps. Herbert’s explosive passing fell down the Richter Scale behind a glitchy offensive line in 2022. Tagovailoa’s glow-up was made possible by Tyreek Hill’s arrival and marred by injury. The heights these passers can reach are dizzying, but they may not be enough to make a team a Super Bowl contender on their own.
Tier 2.5: The guy making Urban Meyer look worse every week
- Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
From Week 9 onward, Lawrence threw 15 touchdown passes against two interceptions, ranked fifth among all starting quarterbacks by averaging 0.189 expected points added (EPA) per play) and rallied the Jaguars from 2-6 to 9-8 and an AFC South championship.
He threw four interceptions in the first 23 minutes of a Wild Card game against the Chargers and still managed to lead Jacksonville back from a 27-0 second quarter deficit. The proof of concept that the former top overall pick is a franchise quarterback is there; he just needs to do it consistently to cement his spot in the circle of trust.
Tier 3: Reliable (?) veterans who'll get you to the playoffs
- Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
- Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
- Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets
- Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Look, I’m surprised Goff is here, too. But Detroit was able to rediscover the passer who was once an MVP candidate for an NFC champion Los Angeles Rams team. Goff was wonderful to wrap up his second season as a Lion. His 0.299 EPA/play was by far the highest mark among all quarterbacks over the final half of 2022 (15 touchdowns, zero interceptions and a 7-2 record as a starter). The fact he’s only 28 years old and has approached these heights in the past suggests this could be more than an outlier — so he hits the top 10 … for now.
Rodgers and Stafford are here on a provisional level. Rodgers turns 40 years old in December and is coming off his worst season as a starter. Granted, Green Bay’s awful receiving corps shoulders some of the responsibility there, but it’s clear the scrambling that’s buoyed his amazing passing feats has slipped and it’s affecting his game. Stafford is 35, was injured for a big chunk of 2022 and inefficient in games he played. A hollowed-out Rams team is going to look a lot like the Lions’ teams he’d hoped he left behind, albeit with Cooper Kupp in the lineup to help salvage his offense.
Tier 4: Kinda trustworthy
- Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
- Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
- Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
- Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints
Picking any quarterback from this tier is like picking up a new HBO show when it debuts. It could be great! It could be a disaster and cancelled within a year. But there’s a certain baseline pedigree there and the adventure is part of the process. In 2023, these quarterbacks will be starting at a higher floor than the players behind them, but could easily slide back down.
Murray backslid in 2022 and is now coming back from an ACL tear. Fields is an electric runner who has made hay behind one of the league’s worst offenses but still has a ton to prove. Smith leveled up his game as the Seahawks’ unquestioned starter and faded considerably down the stretch. Carr is Schrodinger’s quarterback, existing in a flux state between underrated and overrated and waiting for your observation to free him from purgatory.
Tier 4.5: Fell off enormously in 2022 but are significantly better than that
- Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
- Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos
Two accomplished quarterbacks. Two new situations with teams that traded away massive ransoms to change the face of their franchise. Two massive disappointments.
Both Watson and Wilson were messes in 2022, ranking 32nd and 27th, respectively, in EPA/play among 37 quarterbacks who took at least 200 snaps in 2022. There’s reason to believe each can bounce back. Wilson got a new head coach who oversaw late-stage Drew Brees and still pushed the New Orleans Saints to perennial playoff status (Sean Payton).
Watson gets a full season to adjust after being suspended for 11 games in 2022 thanks to more than 20 accusations of sexual misconduct and what the NFL described as “predatory behavior.” His receiving corps remains grim, but he was the only light in a dark 2020 Houston Texans season and is capable of rising back to Pro Bowl levels even in a bad situation.
Tier 5: Quarterbacks who need the right situation to thrive(ish)
- Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
- Daniel Jones, New York Giants
- Jimmy Garoppolo, Las Vegas Raiders
- Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans
Cousins’ regular season career pre-2022 suggests he belongs on Tier 3 or 4, but it’s tough to view him as more than empty calories given his lack of consistent postseason success. Last season was his least efficient season as a starter (he ranked 20th in EPA/play), At a soon-to-be 35 years old it’s fair to wonder if he’s begun his descent.
Jones and Garoppolo both work well in low-impact, short-target passing offenses. Jones offers considerably more running ability and has an improved receiving corps with which to work following his breakthrough fourth season. Garoppolo is 40-17 all time as a regular season starter. Both are … fine. Tannehill’s monster efficiency has waned as his receiving corps and rush attack have receded, leaving Tennessee to actively look for his replacement. This may be his last season with the Titans.
Tier 5.5: 49ers quarterbacks
- Brock Purdy/Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers
I’ll be honest with you. I don’t know where this duo actually belongs. Purdy’s tendency to float passes downfield threatens to be a liability in his second season, assuming he returns from UCL surgery in time. But he’s also 8-0 in games he’s started and finished.
We have only 262 snaps worth of regular season data on Lance, but know he has the raw talent to be a potent dual threat with his deep ball and his legs. Both play in Kyle Shanahan’s system, which props up mediocrity behind center with playmakers elsewhere. Can this duo be as successful as anyone from Tier 2 onward? Sure! Could they crash and burn inside or outside Shanahan’s protective scheme? Also very possible!
Tier 6: Young enough to earn the benefit of the doubt
- Mac Jones, New England Patriots
- CJ Stroud, Houston Texans
- Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers
- Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
- Sam Howell/Jacoby Brissett, Washington Commanders
- Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
- Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons
- Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
This tier is filled with young quarterbacks capable of big things or quietly laying the foundation for a decade of backup gigs and a cushy retirement. Jones gets the benefit of the doubt because he was coached by Matt Patricia last season, a move that historically works out for roughly 15 percent of his players.
Pickett proved he could win games by mostly staying out of the way and has a viable path to modest improvement in 2023. Howell, Ridder and Love are all primed for starting roles (though Howell has a viable 1b in Brissett, who was good for the Browns in 2022 until the exact moment it mattered). Love’s in the worst shape in terms of receiving talent, but he also inherits a roster capable of mitigating his mistakes.
The rest of this class is this fall’s presumptive rookie starters. The bar is low for Young, Stroud and Richardson; get their teams to six wins or better and 2023 will be considered a success. Fail and, well, they’re only rookies. They’ve got time to turn things around and patience trickling downward from the top of the organizations that drafted them.
Tier 7: Not especially serious about 2023
- Baker Mayfield/Kyle Trask, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The point may not be for Mayfield and Trask to be good in 2023. They might be — Mayfield had moments where he showed flashes of the quarterback who led the Browns to the playoffs in 2020 and Trask is a wild card — but conditions do not favor it. Tampa’s clearest path back to prosperity is to be the worst team in a weak division and float to the top of 2024’s solid QB draft class. In that regard, Mayfield/Trask may be a perfect fit.
