Wayne Pivac faces one of the biggest selections of his career this week when he names Wales’ team to face Australia.
Another poor performance from his players this coming Saturday would heighten the pressure on their head coach after the dismal defeat to Georgia.
Pivac will be without his England-based players but Australia are also set to be under-strength and coaching is often about making the best of the available resources.
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And that process starts in selection.
Here’s the kind of team that he needs to pick to give Wales a decent chance of salvaging something from a so-fair disappointing campaign.
15. Leigh Halfpenny
There are not many other options for Pivac here, with the England-based Louis Rees-Zammit off limits, but Halfpenny, 97 caps for Wales and edging towards what would be a hugely popular century, is still ultra-reliable and a wonderful reader of play with courage to spare.
14. Josh Adams
The Cardiff player performed solidly on his return after injury, breaking clear of the defence at one point and touching down, only to be denied a score after a forward pass. He made ground with the ball, defended well and achieved an aerial turnover. He also scores tries. Worth retaining, then.
13. George North
No change here. North has had a good series to date, even if he did miss a tackle or two too many against Georgia. He has run hard and offered an attacking threat — a big deal for a side who have otherwise largely looked punchless in their offensive play.
12. Owen Watkin
An injury appeared to hamper him in the second half in round three, with his mobility affected. Pivac has the option of handing a first cap to Joe Hawkins if Watkin is deemed unfit but, for such a big game, the coach will presumably hope to field tried-and-tested performers. Watkin defended bravely on Saturday, as always, but Wales could do with the Osprey bringing more creativity to his game.
11. Rio Dyer
There’s a reasonable chance Pivac will stick with Alex Cuthbert, but the big man wasn’t at his best against Georgia, with his yellow card a particular blot on his copybook. If form is the criterion, then Dragons flyer Dyer would be handed the shirt. He played soundly against New Zealand and Argentina and has zip about his game.
10. Gareth Anscombe
Wales’ attacking game has gone missing this autumn. Could Anscombe change the narrative for the autumn finale? It didn’t exactly work for him against Argentina, but he has vision and passes nicely off both hands. There’s not much between him and the game-controlling Rhys Priestland. Maybe Anscombe offers a shade more of a running threat.
9. Tomos Williams
The last thing Pivac wants to do is tinker here. While not being at his very best against the Georgians, Williams impressed over the previous two games and has confirmed in this series, if any confirmation were needed, that he can make things happen.
1. Gareth Thomas
The Welsh scrum may have found the going tough at the hands of New Zealand but Thomas has responded well, scrummaging solidly against Argentina and Georgia. He is also one of Wales’ best tacklers, returning a 14-0 count on Saturday, the best defensive performance of any player on the pitch. Had he stayed on over the weekend, Wales’ scrum may not have imploded so spectacularly, albeit the main problems seemed on the other side.
2. Ken Owens
A dart or two went awry against Georgia, but no need to dash from the bar when Owens reaches for his Tungstens just yet. He performed strongly all round against the All Blacks and Argentina and his experience will be important for the clash with the Aussies.
3. Tomas Francis
There is a decent possibility that Pivac and Jonathan Humphreys will start with Dillon Lewis, and not many people will quibble with that. The Cardiff man has had a decent campaign, with the Welsh scrum on top while he and Gareth Thomas were on the field against Georgia and Lewis working hard around the field.
Francis has been considered the stronger scrummager in the past, though, and given that anchoring the set-piece is still a No. 3’s primary job, the temptation might be to hand him the shirt, assuming he’s fit after his recent absence from playing duties.
4. Adam Beard
He will start because it’s an important game and he has played in a lot of those before now. If the Georgian experience taught Wales anything, it is not to muck about too much in selection for key positions. Wales need the 6ft 8in Beard’s lineout expertise and work at defensive mauls. But they could do with the big man imposing himself on matches, as well.
5. Alun Wyn Jones
Unfairly singled out by some after the heavy defeat against New Zealand, with Jones making 10 tackles in 40 minutes on the field and doing what he could to stem the tide. He wasn’t Wales’ best on the day, but nor was he their worst. He still has a steely resolve and he still detests low standards and losing. For those reasons alone, he needs to feature, assuming full fitness.
6. Jac Morgan
An unqualified success so far this autumn. Morgan doesn’t go missing in action, is consistently physical and has improved his attacking game. If there hasn’t been much for Pivac to write home about this month, Morgan’s form bucks the trend. He’s been excellent.
7. Justin Tipuric
The captain did his best to lead by example against Georgia after a big display against Argentina. He remains one of Wales’ top players.
8. Taulupe Faletau
Revised figures for Faletau’s effort on Saturday are startling. In 28 minutes he put in 11 tackles without missing one and made 16 metres from three carries. Yes, there was the odd error, as well, but he’s an authentically world-class player. First name on the team-sheet.
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