Wayne Pivac is almost ready to announce his Wales squad for the upcoming autumn internationals, and the head coach has had much to ponder.
The squad will be announced at 12pm on Tuesday, October 18, ahead of the opening match against New Zealand on November 5.
That will be followed by the visit of Argentina a week later, then Georgia and finally Australia to round off the penultimate campaign before the 2023 Rugby World Cup.
So, what headlines could we see when the squad is announced? Here are a few storylines to keep an eye on:
Form players miss out
It always seems the case that some form players miss out in every squad selection, but it's a pretty safe bet to say there will be some players feeling hard done by.
Let's start in the back-row, where the abundance of opensides is likely to result in at least one in-form option being snubbed. In the summer, that was Jac Morgan. In this year's Six Nations, it was Tommy Reffell. Last autumn? Both of them.
Right now, Wales have Morgan and Reffell, plus Thomas Young, Justin Tipuric, Josh Macleod, James Botham... and the list goes on. It's quicker to name those who are likely to miss out, like Taine Basham, who dislocated his elbow at the weekend.
Are Wales likely to name four or more opensides? You'd wager not. Three at a push, given options like Aaron Wainwright and Ross Moriarty can cover six and eight. But it feels odds-on that at least one talented openside misses out on Tuesday.
It is set to be a similar story in the hooker department, too. Four into three doesn't go. Ryan Elias, Dewi Lake, Ken Owens and Bradley Roberts — one will miss out and it will be a tough break for whoever that is.
The other in-form player who could well miss out is Nicky Smith. He has been perhaps the best loosehead in Wales for a while now, but for whatever reason, he has not pulled on a Welsh jersey since last summer. Will that change this time around? Maybe, if there is an injury concern over Gareth Thomas, but it just seems as though Pivac isn't interested.
Long-term absentees to return, or maybe not
We have mentioned the fight that the experienced Ken Owens has on his return after a lengthy absence, but he is not the only player set to return to the Test scene after a while out of the game.
Owens spent 11 months on the sidelines, with Tipuric being out of the game for 14 months, while Leigh Halfpenny wasn't seen for 15 months after injuring his knee minutes into his 100th Test cap against Canada last summer.
Perceived wisdom dictated early on, when Owens and Halfpenny in particular were still tip-toeing towards a comeback, that it would be unwise to rush these experienced stars back for the autumn, that it would be better to let them carry on working their way back at their clubs than throw them into the rigours of Test rugby too soon. However, all of them now have varying amounts of minutes under their belts. So that argument doesn't seem as likely to be adopted now.
Wales are lacking in full-back options with Liam Williams injured, so Halfpenny seems likely to come back in. Owens will almost certainly return too, although the number of hooking options does give Pivac the luxury of letting the Sheriff bide his time if he sees fit.
As for Tipuric, the competition in the back-row, as well as his own recent knock, could potentially see Pivac see opt to rest him. But such is the importance of Tipuric to Wales' game, it is more than likely he will be in the squad unless injury definitively rules him out.
Uncapped talent to be looked at
A year out from the 2023 World Cup, it may feel like, having blooded more than 25 players since taking the job, Pivac has little untapped talent to look at anymore. Well, that's not exactly the case, with at least one uncapped player making the squad not inconceivable.
Starting in the front-row, Sam Wainwright became Wales' newest cap in the summer, but could Pivac opt to take a closer look at the other untested tight-head he called up to South Africa? Harri O'Connor is highly rated at the Scarlets and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him named with Leon Brown ruled out.
Dafydd Jenkins is another prospect tipped for a big future. The sense is that Wales want to take a look at the Exeter second-row at some point, given plenty of speculation he would tour South Africa in the summer. Ultimately, he ended up with the U20s alongside Exeter team-mate Christ Tshiunza, who is almost certainly going to be named in Pivac's squad. Might the Wales coach be tempted to have a look at Jenkins now?
In the backs, the injury issues at fly-half have handed Sam Costelow a decent shot at a first senior call-up, were he not already in contention on form alone. Having trained with the squad previously, it would make sense for Pivac to bring him in, hand him the reins to the Georgia game and get him familiar with Test rugby before France next year.
In midfield, there are striking similarities between Max Llewellyn and a 2008 Jamie Roberts: former Ysgol Glantaf students bringing some gainline-busting physicality to the Arms Park side. pThe only difference is that Pivac likely won't try Llewellyn on the wing and at full-back first, but he is an outside bet for a centre spot given the varying form of the other options.
In the back-three, Keelan Giles and Ryan Conbeer are two wings worth a punt at this stage. Both have impressed, with Giles quietly getting back to the sort of form which nearly won him a cap in 2016. With injury concerns over Alex Cuthbert and Josh Adams, there is a spot there to be grabbed.
A new captain?
It seems increasingly likely that Dan Biggar, the man who has skippered Wales throughout 2022, will miss out on the autumn squad through injury. Currently in a knee brace, the wait to see a specialist ahead of the campaign doesn't sound too promising.
So, assuming Biggar isn't named in the squad on Tuesday, will the captaincy be shifted around immediately? Or will Pivac hold off on any decisions until closer to November?
The latter would make sense, given the presence of former squad captain Alun Wyn Jones in the mix. If you name someone else captain on Tuesday, it does give the impression Jones is no longer first-choice. However, that hasn't stopped the likes of Will Rowlands being tipped as a potential new captain for this campaign. Mere speculation or is there no smoke without fire? We might soon find out.
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