We Believe In These Bold Bracket Predictions
Trevor Ruszkowski/USA Today network
The Madness is upon us! What better way to kick off Thursday’s start to the NCAA men’s tournament than with our basketball gurus’s bold bracket predictions.
Pat Forde: By the Elite Eight we could have zero coaches with national titles still competing: Mark Few of Gonzaga, Mark Adams of Texas Tech, Mick Cronin of UCLA, Matt Painter of Purdue, Tommy Lloyd of Arizona, Rick Barnes of Tennessee, Fran McCaffery of Iowa and Greg Gard of Wisconsin. If that happens, it would be a third straight tournament with a first-time coach winning, following Tony Bennett in 2019 and Scott Drew in ’21.
Molly Geary: I can’t shake the feeling this tournament could be a truly wild one. Last year was full of twists itself, at least until it all ended with the exact matchup most had forecasted. With the extra COVID-19 year, some teams are older than normal, and that includes mid-majors. And besides Gonzaga, the top handful of teams are noticeably weaker in KenPom efficiency margin than the top group in 2021 and the previous tournament in ’19. Things feel ripe to go up in flames, but good luck predicting exactly when and where.
Jason Jordan: Kansas will be the first No. 1 seed to fall. I know, I know, the Jayhawks are fresh off a Big 12 conference title and have won five in a row, but I can’t stop seeing No. 5 Iowa waiting for Bill Self in the Sweet 16. Why? Keegan Murray. The 6’8” forward is tailor-made for stardom this March, averaging 23.6 points and 8.6 rebounds this season while shooting 55% from the field. It’s a matchup for which the Jayhawks have no answer.
Kevin Sweeney: Iowa goes to the Final Four! I know it's a relatively popular pick right now, but the Hawkeyes were simply tremendous in the Big Ten tournament and are so hard to guard.
Jeremy Woo: Gonzaga won’t make the Final Four. Some combination of Memphis/Boise State/Arkansas/UConn/Duke/Texas Tech is not an easy route for the Bulldogs, and it’s not like they have been an infallible machine all season. Yes, Gonzaga is good, but good teams have been able to play them close for long stretches, and it doesn’t have much experience playing from behind as a group. “They have to win the title eventually” isn’t good enough logic for me.
What To Watch
A few Thursday games on our radar:
• No. 13 South Dakota State vs. No. 4 Providence (12:40 p.m. ET, truTV): The Jackrabbits have won 21 straight—they can’t even remember what it feels like to lose and will play with an expectation of winning. The Friars, meanwhile, have a nice record and terrible metrics—and we’re siding with the metrics. Providence has had a great run, but the well of good fortune ran dry in New York last week and hasn’t been replenished yet.
• No. 8 Boise State vs. No. 9 Memphis (1:45 p.m. ET, TNT): Boise State rebounded from a rocky November, in which it lost four of its first seven games, to finish 27–7 overall and clinch the conference title. Two of the more higher-rebounding teams in the tournament, this one could come down to how well Boise State can handle Memphis’s up-tempo offense.
• No. 8 North Carolina versus No. 9 Marquette (4:30 p.m. ET, TBS): A matchup between two coaches making their tournament debut with their new programs—Hubert Davis at UNC and Shaka Smart at Marquette—both teams will look to rebound from falling short in their respective conference tournaments. The Golden Eagles were up-and-down throughout the year, finishing 19–12. But given their big wins against Illinois, Villanova, Providence and Seton Hall this season, this younger roster is not timid.
• No. 13 Vermont versus No. 4 Arkansas (9:20 p.m. ET, TNT): Yes, Vermont whopped the competition in the America East this season, culminating in an 82–43 rout against UMBC in the league championship game. But, respectfully, that’s the America East. The Catamounts’ five-out offense won’t be as productive against a battle-tested Razorbacks squad and its trio of tough-nosed guards (JD Notae, Stanley Umude, Au’Diese Toney). No Cinderella run here.
• No. 7 Murray State vs. No. 10 San Francisco (9:40 p.m. ET, CBS): It’s disappointing to see two top mid-majors matched up in the first round, but this game will be an absolute blast. Each team ranks in the top 50 nationally in offensive and defensive efficiency per KenPom, marks of just how good and how well-rounded these clubs are. San Francisco became the first WCC team not named Gonzaga, St. Mary’s or BYU in two decades to get an at-large bid and has a star at point guard in Jamaree Bouyea, while Murray State owns the best record in college basketball and runs tremendous offensive sets in the halfcourt under coach Matt McMahon.
(P.S.—For a full schedule of Thursday’s games, plus complete brackets and predictions, keep coming back to our NCAA men’s tournament page.)
(P.S.S.—Don’t forget the women’s tournament begins Friday, and we have all the coverage you need here, including Ben Pickman’s Cinderella teams to watch.)
From The Vault: April 9, 2001
As the men’s tourney begins, we turn back the clock to almost 21 years ago, when Alexander Wolff detailed Duke’s run to its third national title in 11 years. Can anyone say, clutch threes?! Mike Krzyzewski, who is retiring at the end of the season, is leading Duke to its 36th tournament appearance in his 42 years with the program. The No. 2 seed opens its run Friday against No. 15 Cal State Fullerton (7:10 p.m. ET, CBS).
