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A number of top Tory ministers could lose their seats in the general election, according to final polls predicting a disastrous night for the Conservatives.
In devastating news for prime minister Rishi Sunak, YouGov’s final poll before voting began on Thursday predicted that 14 Tory “big beasts” were set to lose their seats to Labour, the Liberal Democrats, Reform UK and Plaid Cymru.
The Conservatives would drop to just 108 seats, losing 257 of the seats they won in 2019, according to YouGov’s projection on Wednesday. Labour would win a huge majority of 425 seats, up by 223. An subsequent exit poll published at 10pm on Thursday wasn’t much better, predicting 410 for Labour, 131 for the Tories and 61 for the Lib Dems.
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Among those who could be ousted are Jeremy Hunt, Penny Mordaunt, Mel Stride, Alex Chalk, Mark Harper, Grant Shapps and Gillian Keegan.
Separately, Mr Sunak is rumoured to have confided to members of his inner circle that he is fearful of losing his Yorkshire constituency.
Here, The Independent takes a closer look at the prominent Tory candidates deemed by YouGov to be at risk of losing their seats, and when we should learn their fate.
Richard Holden
Richard Holden’s bid for the seat of Basildon and Billericay has been fraught with controversy, with the Tory chair accused of being parachuted in on a so-called “chicken run” after his North West Durham constituency disappeared in the boundary review.
Despite the local Tory association’s executive voting to reject the shortlist of one imposed on them by CCHQ in June, The Independent reported that councillors in the constituency were told they would “lose the whip” if they did not accept Mr Holden – barring them from standing for the party again at any level.
After what was described as “a gun being held to our heads”, senior members of the association met with Mr Holden to “reluctantly” accept his candidacy. Days later, Mr Holden’s aide angrily intervened to cut short an interview in which the Tory chair was asked about the “stitch-up” process.
The final YouGov poll predicted a toss-up between Reform and Labour in Basildon and Billericay, which means he could lose the contest for parliament. But, with the Tories on course for a record-breaking defeat, Mr Holden looks set to be the first member of the government to lose his seat, with the result expected at 12.15am.
Mark Harper
Mark Harper was elected in 2005 in the constituency of Forest of Dean. He has served as transport secretary since 2022 and previously worked as chief whip.
Under the new YouGov Poll, Mr Harper is vulnerable to Labour. He currently has a 15,869 majority in his Gloucestershire seat. The minister will have to wait until about 3am to find out the result in Forest of Dean.
Alex Chalk
Alex Chalk won the seat of Cheltenham from the Lib Dems back in 2015, and has been viewed as a rising star in the party over the past few years.
Mr Chalk has long been at risk due to his wafer-thin majority of just under 1,000 votes, which he is now set to lose to the Lib Dems at the next election, according to the new poll. Mr Chalk’s constituency is expected to declare at around 3am as well.
Simon Hart
The government’s chief whip Simon Hart could lose his seat to Plaid Cymru. YouGov’s previous poll predicted he would lose it to Labour.
Mr Hart has served in ministerial roles under both Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak, having assumed office in 2010. The result in his Caerfyrddin constituency is expected at around 3.15am.
Jeremy Hunt
Jeremy Hunt is a long-serving Tory grandee, having served in multiple senior roles across government, including foreign secretary, health secretary and his current post as chancellor of the Exchequer.
He will be standing in a new constituency this year – Godalming and Ash – after his seat in South West Surrey, which he has held since 2005, is set to be abolished in the recent boundary changes.
He has a 10,720 majority but is set to lose the seat to the Liberal Democrats under the new YouGov poll published on Wednesday 19 June.
In a worrying sign for the chancellor, the official exit poll gave him a mere 19 per cent chance of holding his seat. The result in his Godalming and Ash constituency is expected around 3.30am.
Grant Shapps
Grant Shapps is the MP for Welwyn Hatfield, and took up his first government position as a housing minister under David Cameron’s leadership.
Since then, Mr Shapps has served in several senior roles across government, including as transport secretary under Boris Johnson, home secretary under Liz Truss, energy secretary under Rishi Sunak and now secretary of state for defence.
He has a 10,773 majority and is set to lose his seat to Labour in the general election on 4 July, the new poll found.
Mr Shapps has been given just a 6 per cent chance of holding onto his Welwyn Hatfield seat by the official exit poll, with the result expected around 3.30am.
Gillian Keegan
Gillian Keegan entered parliament in 2017, and has served as education secretary since 2022, having held a number of junior ministerial posts before that.
She has a 19,622 majority in her seat of Chichester but is vulnerable to the Liberal Democrats, according to the shock poll.
The result in Ms Keegan’s seat is expected to come in at around 3.30am.
Penny Mordaunt
The leader of the house, Penny Mordaunt, has been a popular figure in the Conservative party over the last few years, having stood for the leadership twice in 2023.
Ms Mordaunt held several senior government positions under Theresa May’s leadership, including defence secretary and international development secretary.
Ms Mordaunt is now on track to lose her seat to Labour in the constituency of Portsmouth North, where she has served as the MP since 2010, according to the poll. The result is expected at around 3.30am, and she has been given just a 25 per cent chance of survival by the official exit poll.
Johnny Mercer
Johnny Mercer has served as MP for Plymouth Moor View since 2010 and has attended cabinet as minister for veteran affairs since 2019.
He is set to lose his seat to Labour, with Reform predicted to nibble away at the Conservative majority, taking around 11 per cent of the total vote share. His result is expected to come in at around 3.30am as well.
Rishi Sunak
Separately to the YouGov poll, Rishi Sunak has confided to members of his inner circle that he is fearful of losing his Yorkshire constituency at the general election, according to reports.
The prime minister, who would be the first sitting leader of the country to lose his seat, told confidants before a Conservative rally on Tuesday that he thought the vote in Richmond and Northallerton was too close to call.
With the prime minister’s seat on a knife-edge, he will have to wait until around 4.00am to find out the result.
Michelle Donelan
Michelle Donelan has been member of parliament for Chippenham in Wiltshire since 2015, where she has a 11,288 majority.
She was first appointed secretary of state for science, innovation and technology on 7 February 2023. Under the new poll, she was predicted to lose her seat to the Liberal Democrats. The results in her constituency are expected at 4.00am.
Mel Stride
Mel Stride was appointed secretary of state for work and pensions on 25 October 2022. He was elected the Conservative MP for Central Devon in 2010.
He was previously Lord President of the Council and leader of the House of Commons from 23 May 2019 to 24 July 2019, and Financial secretary to the treasury and paymaster general from June 2017 to May 2019.
According to YouGov’s shock poll, he will lose his seat to Labour in the 4 July general election. His seat is expected to declare at around 4.00am.
David TC Davies
Mr Davies has served as secretary of state for Wales since 2022, having previously served in junior ministerial roles and as the chair for the Welsh Affairs Select Committee.
He became the MP for Monmouth back in 2005, but is set to stand in the new seat of Monmouthshire, as his previous seat will be abolished under the boundary changes. However, Mr Davies is set to lose his seat to Labour. His seat is expected to be called at 4.30am.
Michael Tomlinson
Micheal Tomlinson has been a member of parliament for Mid Dorset and North Poole since the 2015 general election.
He was appointed minister of state at the Home Office on 7 December 2023, and worked as the illegal migration minister. He is also set to lose his seat to the Liberal Democrats. The result is expected at around 4.45am.
Steve Baker
Steve Baker was appointed minister of state at the Northern Ireland Office on 7 September 2022. He was elected as Conservative MP for Wycombe in 2010.
He was previously parliamentary under secretary of state at the Department for Exiting the European Union from June 2017 to 9 July 2018.
Under the new poll, Mr Baker is set to lose his seat, which he is campaigning for while on holiday on Greece, to Labour. Mr Baker was told live on the BBC that he had a less than one per cent chance of holding his seat, according to the official exit poll. It comes just days after he revealed he was considering a Tory leadership bid if he held onto the Wycombe constituency, with the results expected at around 6am.
