Six races to go: the calendar's final quarter. The business end of the year. The last push. That bit of the year where all the races turn into an amalgamated blob of half-remembered overtakes at weird times of the day, before finally concluding in an Abu Dhabi encounter that will either be saturated in tedium, or offer a masterclass in how to put on a championship finale. And never the twain shall meet.
Thankfully, unlike 2024, the final run-in of flyaways is not a series of dead-rubber races; millions of pounds are not being expended for little material yield. This time there's a championship battle on the cards, at least only notionally unless the gap between Max Verstappen and Lando Norris comes down to a tangible range in the final couple of races. There's a lot left to play for, which means the usual winding-down period in development to focus on 2025 is a much more precarious situation to manage.
But it's the constructors' championship that pays the big bucks. Aside from who wins the title, there's little more than honour in the other drivers' placings; the difference between 14th and 15th in the standings will be inconsequential.
What price the difference between, say, ninth and 10th in the constructors' title? That's circa an extra $10 million, depending on the size of the prize pot, and can demonstrate the disparity between operating at the cost cap and falling short. Alternatively, perhaps the extra $10m pays for some new infrastructure, covers off a debt, or allows for a little more fidelity with simulations. The possibilities are endless.
That's why the constructors' placings are valuable, but there's also said to be a couple of extra payment columns that also reward recent success in the championship, with extra payments made to those who have finished in the top three in recent years. The flipside to a better championship position is in reduced aerodynamic testing. Would a team rather have extra $10m, or the extra 10% in wind tunnel testing time? If so, that determines whether a team wants to force the issue for a position change in the final few races of the season.
Still, there are plenty of key battles available in the championship, with varying levels of prestige. Here are the three main ones that remain hotly contested.
The battle for first and second
Contenders: McLaren, Red Bull, Ferrari
McLaren took the lead in the constructors' championship after Oscar Piastri's win in Azerbaijan, and Lando Norris' win in Singapore opened a 41-point buffer that looks set to extend if Red Bull cannot resume its early-season form. During Red Bull's mid-season regression, it seemed somewhat inevitable that McLaren would overtake it in the teams' standings; given the performance disparity between the two, it will be an arduous task for Red Bull to reclaim it.
The eventuality that looks a smidgen more likely is that it will face a challenge from Ferrari over second, as just 34 points separate the two teams. Both Red Bull and Ferrari appear to have gotten over the respective issues that cost performance in the middle part of the season; the RB20's ever-shifting balance created a disconnect between driver and car, while Ferrari's floor developments instigated bouncing during the high-speed corners.
Red Bull retains a car performance advantage, but relying on Max Verstappen for the bulk of its points effectively means it goes into the race with one hand behind its back. Both Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz can be expected to contribute to the Prancing Horse's burgeoning tally, while Red Bull's Sergio Perez seems to be nothing more than a presence in the lower reaches of the points. And, on current form, Red Bull might be spending more time looking in its rear-view mirror...
The battle for sixth
Contenders: RB, Haas
Fourth and fifth are pretty much sewn up: Mercedes is 112 points shy of Ferrari in the constructors' standings, and 243 clear of Aston Martin. Nothing short of capitulation will change the order here.
Despite its regression, Aston Martin's grasp of fifth looks reasonably assured too; there's a 52-point gap between it and the sixth-placed RB. For its part, RB is just three points ahead of Haas - and of the two, the American team outfit has the greater form behind it. Although a smaller team than RB by some magnitude, Haas under Ayao Komatsu's leadership has become a far more diligent operation compared to its years under Gunther Steiner; its focus on getting the most bang for its buck has led to a much more felicitous season compared to 2023.
Nico Hulkenberg has been one of the stars of the midfield; the two sixth-place finishes at Silverstone and the Red Bull Ring helped the team make huge inroads into RB's early advantage in the constructors' title. While Kevin Magnussen has not been as prolific, the Dane has played a valuable support role to Hulkenberg this season and helped the German fortify his position within the top 10 - albeit with a sometimes-controversial modus operandi.
At RB, Yuki Tsunoda has been the main points-getter, but the addition of Liam Lawson for the final six rounds should offer a little more exuberance in the midfield. Flashes of performance from Daniel Ricciardo were just that, and the team needs a driver who is a little less sporadic. Lawson, who comfortably sat on the line between points and the positions just outside during his five-race stint for AlphaTauri last year, should be in the mix more often.
It's going to come down to upgrades here; Haas has a new package that it has earmarked for Austin, while RB should also have a few new parts for the final six races.
The battle for eighth
Contenders: Williams, Alpine, Sauber
In truth, Williams could be a contender for sixth in the championship given its progression following the summer break. The upgrades that it introduced in Zandvoort were, despite the physically tiny tolerance issues that resulted in its qualifying results being thrown out, a noticeable boost to the team's fortunes; James Vowles' team was disappointed not to break into the top 10 in Singapore.
Adding Franco Colapinto into the mix has been a masterstroke; the Argentine has immediately got on terms with Alex Albon and scored a healthy four points in only his second race. For his part, Albon has been able to take the revised FW46 into Q3 on three of the four occasions post-summer.
Alpine can still challenge if Williams is beset by profligacy. Under new team principal Oliver Oakes, the team has largely sharpened up its act at the circuits, while technical chief David Sanchez is tasked with directing both the development of its 2024 car and addressing the A524's long list of shortcomings into the next design. But the team appears to have stagnated of late, and its development path has been low-key at best.
The same can be said of Sauber. Still scoreless after 18 races, the Swiss squad looks no closer to breaking into the top 10 and may have to rely on a race with an anarchic streak to even get off the mark. Should Alpine improve, it could enter Williams' orbit - but with Williams largely on the up, the British outfit may contend for an even higher finishing position.
