There are three strategy scenarios possible for Formula 1’s 2025 Australian Grand Prix, but they all depend on how and when the forecast rain hits the Albert Park track on Sunday.
In scenario one, which assumes rain does not fall despite having been the talk of the event so far in Melbourne, a simple one-stop race becomes the most likely strategy.
This is because the track would remain highly rubbered-in and Pirelli’s new compounds for this season reportedly grain less compared with those used in 2024.
The soft C5 tyre in use here is still graining on the demanding layout with its smooth track surface, but this compound is considered an unlikely race tyre should it stay dry.
With the C3 hard tyre performing so strongly so far – delivering medium-like grip as well as good durability compared to the C4 the drivers detested in testing – the teams at the front of the field would in this scenario do their shorter first stint on the mediums before switching to the white-walled rubber to get to the flag.
On the hards, Mercedes’ George Russell essentially matched Lando Norris’s leading FP2 long-run averages, while with the mediums McLaren had 0.2s a lap in hand over Ferrari and 0.3s over Red Bull (which was then still struggling for car handling balance).
Down the grid, if things do stay dry, it would be worth some teams inverting this one-stopper and taking the hards first – aiming to gain with a mid-race safety car, of which there is a high probability at this vicious high-speed track.
If it rains overnight and the circuit dries out sufficiently before the start, then a two-stopper becomes much more likely – again with the leaders starting on the mediums and then taking two sets of hards over the 58-lap distance.
This is because green track conditions would increase the graining factor, although Pirelli reckons in this specific case there is still little to choose between the one- or two-stop strategy.
This particular factor would likely incentivise some teams into trying a different approach to their rivals.
The third scenario, however, seems to be the most likely – that it does indeed rain heavily overnight and on Sunday, and the start is taken on the intermediates if it is dry enough to do so, or behind the safety car on full wets.
If it rains enough for intermediates but then dries, the teams would most likely switch to the hards when possible on the dry line and attempt to get to the finish without stopping again.
This suggests they would want their drivers to wear down the intermediates to near-slick state before making the switch to avoid being caught out with the track drying.
If the rain eases later, then it would be more logical for the teams to go to the mediums or even the softs if the end is in sight at this theoretical stage.
If it rains throughout, then the teams will have to time taking fresh sets of the wet compounds depending on the intensity of the rainfall.
Another intriguing factor about the first 2025 race possibly being wet is that not all the teams have tested the new extreme wet compound.
This features an altered tread pattern compound to the previous version that is aimed at reducing overheating and having a wider operating window that means it performs more like the inter.
Ideally, this new tyre will eliminate the poor spectacle of wet safety car starts in recent years being followed by drivers pitting as soon as racing is permitted to take the faster inters.
