Australia lost migrants in record numbers during the pandemic.
In the first pandemic year alone, instead of growing the Australian population by around 180,000 people through migration from overseas, we lost about 85,000 folks to other countries. The net migration figure could’ve been even deeper in the red if it hadn’t been for expat Aussies returning home.
When we filled out our census forms on August 2021, we listed our residential address of 12 months prior. This means we can now simply filter census data for Australian citizens that lived overseas in August 2020.
Let’s examine who these homesick Aussies are, where they settled and how many of them there were. We can also see where they contributed to house prices going up.
The total head count comes to 85,812. That is pretty much the same number of Aussies that returned home leading up to the 2016 Census (86,494). Does that mean we don’t have a story here? Did nothing extraordinary happen? Quite the opposite.
Firstly, Census data can’t capture the expat Aussies that returned from overseas between March 2020 and July 2020. I am sure plenty of concerned parents encouraged their kids studying abroad to head home early into the pandemic. Secondly, 2020 saw fewer Aussies than usually leave the country to settle abroad. This is especially the case for international students who only stay abroad for a year or so.
About 8000 fewer Aussies aged 18-30 returned home in 2021 compared to 2016. There simply weren’t as many Aussies studying overseas in August 2020 that could’ve decided to return home to Australia by August 2021. The same is the case for the stereotypical Aussie law graduates in their 20s or young gun corporate folks that head to the London office of their multinational firm for a year.
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The shortfall of 8000 young gun Aussies was made up by more families (parents in their 30s, 40s, and even 50s) returning at higher rates. The census data doesn’t tell us why Australians relocated their families. Did they think Australia was a better place to sit out the pandemic? Did the pandemic lead them to re-evaluate their lifestyle choices? A combination of both?
The economic profile of the returners is pretty clear. They are a wealthier, and more educated cohort than the average Australian.
Almost twice as many returners earned over $104,000 dollars compared to the Australian average – that’s the London lawyers. There were also plenty of returners without any income – that’s the kids of wealthy Australians who studied abroad.
A whopping 48 per cent of returners held at least a Bachelor’s degree, compared to only 29 per cent of the Australian average. The returners brought wealth and brain power with them.
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Our cosmopolitan homecomers settled mostly in our five largest cities – even locked-down Melbourne attracted almost 17,000 returning residents.
Sydney was by far the most attractive option for Aussies with an international professional background. Finance, consulting, accounting, and law – all the classic corporate careers are still best pursued in Sydney. That’s where the regional headquarters of the multinationals cluster.
If we zoom a bit closer into the map of Sydney, we see the hyper concentration of the returners.
Of the 20 suburbs in Australia that attracted most returners, 15 are in Sydney. These 15 suburbs are the top of the crop, the most desirable locations you can come up with – think harbour views and beach access. These 15 suburbs are all within an 11 kilometre radius around the fancy office towers of Barrangaroo and Martin Place. Housing doesn’t come cheap here.
This leads us to thinking through how the returning Aussies have impacted local property markets.
Returners were more likely than in previous years to be families. They compete in the market for family-sized homes. The three-plus bedroom home is by far the most pressurised market segment at the moment because the big Millennial generation started to have kids, and working from home increased the demand for an additional bedroom.
The returners aren’t a large enough cohort to significantly drive up the national median house price but in small pockets of the market (just have a look at the Sydney map again) they certainly drove up the median cost.
Please, don’t get me wrong here. We are very glad that the returners once again call Australia home. They are a highly skilled cohort whose hands and brains we desperately need considering the ongoing skills shortage.
Demographer Simon Kuestenmacher is a co-founder of The Demographics Group. His columns, media commentary and public speaking focus on current socio-demographic trends and how these impact Australia. Follow Simon on Twitter or LinkedIn for daily data insights.
