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USA Today Sports Media Group
USA Today Sports Media Group
Sport
Zach Kruse

The statistical case against the Packers retaining defensive coordinator Joe Barry

The disappointing Green Bay Packers defense improved in a few important areas but also failed to improve or regressed sharply in many other statistical departments during the 2022 season.

Joe Barry’s defense retained every important contributor from the 2021 team and even added a few high draft picks, but the inconsistent and mediocre results over a 17-game season present a strong case for Matt LaFleur moving on and finding a new defensive coordinator in 2023.

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The Packers ranked second in cash spending on defensive players this season. Talent was never an issue. Expectations were rightfully high. The failures were too many. The goal is always to improve, but the Packers didn’t do nearly enough of it on the defensive side in 2022.

Even so, LaFleur said he is anticipating Barry returning as his coordinator next season.

The Packers coach pointed to a strong end of the season and the desire for continuity as his top reasons for keeping Barry. It’s hard to endorse the idea. Should a decent stretch including games against two terrible offenses (Bears 23rd in scoring, Rams 27th), one half against a concussed Tua Tagovailoa and an implosion from Kirk Cousins erase a stretch where the Packers gave up 27 or more points five times during the 1-7 midseason funk?

The numbers paint a clear picture: the Packers defense wasn’t good enough.

Fittingly, the season ended with the Packers unable to get a stop on either of the final two drives against the Detroit Lions, who marched for a go-ahead touchdown and then killed the rest of the fourth-quarter clock following an interception. On 4th-and-the-season, Jared Goff picked apart a zone coverage, found the converting completion and called game.

Does the Packers coordinator have enough built-up equity in the job to survive?

Here’s the statistical case against retaining Barry:

2022 2021 Improve/regress
Points per game 21.8 (17th) 21.8 (14th) Same
Yards per game 336.5 (17th) 328.2 (9th) Regress
Yards per play 5.8 (28th) 5.4 (15th) Regress
Takeaways 24 (12th) 26 (9th) Regress
Scoring% 38.2 (23rd) 36.6 (15th) Regress
TDs allowed 42 (20th) 44 (16th) Improve
Passer rating allowed 88.3 (15th) 86.9 (10th) Regress
Sacks 34 (27th) 39 (16th) Regress
Tackles for loss 68 (24th) 52 (32nd) Improve
Yards/attempt 7.4 (28th) 6.7 (7th) Regress
Yards/carry 5.0 (28th) 4.7 (30th) Regress
Interceptions 17 (4th) 18 (6th) Regress
3rd down% 37.6 (8th) 42.9 (24th) Improve
4th down% 57.9 (23rd) 45.5 (7th) Regress
Red zone TD% 53.7 (13th) 67.3 (30th) Improve
Average yards/drive 33.0 (23rd) 32.1 (18th) Regress
Average points/drive 2.07 (26th) 2.12 (20th) Improve
Penalties 100 (25th) 88 (4th) Regress
DVOA 2.7% (20th) 3.6% (22nd) Improve
PFF grade 67.7 (21st) 76.8 (3rd) Regress
EPA -63.86 (20th) -55.57 (16th) Regress

Barry never made it to Year 3 in his previous two stints as a defensive coordinator. He was two years and out in Detroit, and he was two years and out in Washington. Will Barry be around for a third season in Green Bay? Barring a change of heart from LaFleur over the next few days, it looks likely.

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