As you Cubs fans fantasize about a future that includes Shohei Ohtani, let’s inject some reality into the reverie. Or, to put it another way, I’m here for you.
If the two-way superstar decides to join the North Siders next season, it won’t be because they were one of the seven finalists that had a shot at signing him out of Japan in 2017. It’s hard to believe that a few meetings six years ago with a team that was in a much different situation competitively would still have a profound hold on Ohtani now. That’s not a relationship. That’s a dating-app lunch.
And if Ohtani decides to sign here as a free agent, it won’t be because he wants to play with an iconic franchise like the Cubs, as some dreamers have hypothesized. The club has been playing that card for decades, which explains its colors: red, white, blue and sepia.
No, if Ohtani brings his hitting and pitching talents to Chicago, it will be because the Ricketts family decides he’s worth a $500 million-plus contract and because he thinks the franchise is in a position to win a World Series.
And if it were possible to move Illinois closer to Japan, that would help, too.
Money and winning. Winning and money. But mostly winning, if you think about it. Ohtani is going to get a mega-deal from somebody. There will be more than a few teams ready to write up the biggest contract in Major League Baseball history to get him. Everyone sees the same thing: a fabulously gifted hitter and pitcher, a two-for-one talent in a sport that historically has insisted on one per customer. He’s a box-office no-brainer.
So that leaves winning, something Ohtani hasn’t seen much of in his six seasons with the Angels. They haven’t made the playoffs during his time with the club, and although they’re winning more than they’re losing this season, their play isn’t making the most convincing case for him to stay.
The Rickettses have to decide if he’s worth the massive investment. The good news for Cubs fans is that a player of Ohtani’s magnitude speaks the family’s language. He’d be a guaranteed seat filler at Wrigley Field. The Cubs’ attendance, at 33,383 a game, is ninth-best in the majors, very good for a below-.500 team, but down about 6,500 fans a game from the 2016 World Series season. On the other hand, Cubs fans have shown year after year and decade after decade that they’ll support the team with their wallets, win or lose. Would Ohtani positively impact the family fortune that much?
Since buying the Cubs in 2009, the Rickettses haven’t acted like the owners of a major-market franchise, at least as far as payroll spending is concerned. This would be a fine time for that reflex, if it’s there, to kick in.
What might speak to them is the idea that Ohtani isn’t just a ballplayer. He’s a monolith, a bit like Wrigley Field but definitely like the Hotel Zachary, the Rickettses’ ode to capitalism across the street from the ballpark. If you put it in those terms, in terms the family can understand, then they might be more willing to shell out all that cash. History tells us that if it’s just another high-priced free agent, team chairman Tom Ricketts is more likely to say, “What does he have to do with rooftop seats or the upcoming Bruce Springsteen shows at Wrigley?” But if you tell him that Ohtani could one day have a statue next to Harry Caray’s outside the ballpark, that might hit home for the family.
What does Ohtani see when he looks at the Cubs? If he’s like most of us, he sees a team that’s been up and down this season. If he’s a visionary, perhaps he sees what Cubs president Jed Hoyer sees: a team that’s only going to get better as the young players improve and the purse strings open a bit more. It might take some squinting on Ohtani’s part to get there.
The more immediate question is whether the Angels will deal him before the Aug. 1 trade deadline.
But next year is the big question.
It’s a massive test of what the Rickettses think about the future and what they think about their fans. There will be no hiding from this one. Either they’re in or they’re not. No fake hustle allowed. There can be no contract offer heavy with incentives. There has to be guaranteed money, lots of it. That’s how you show love to someone with a lot of suitors. That’s how you love an elite pitcher and an elite hitter all balled up into one. With everything you have.
