Nigel Pearson has already forecast a big summer, with reference to potential incomings in reshaping a squad that has shown glimpses this season but ultimately is in an area of the Championship it really doesn't want to be.
However, that sentiment extends far beyond transfers before the contract situation of a number of individuals need to be addressed. The Robins have only five players who become free agents this summer and a mammoth 15 in 2023, albeit with a number of individuals holding options.
Such are the tight financial parameters Pearson must work within, many are not straightforward yes or no decisions, and are dependent on a number of factors beyond, even, the manager's own opinion of each respective player. We've taken a closer look at the seven main ones to be deliberated over, which will have a considerable bearing on the make-up of the squad for 2022/23.
We’ve not included Han-Noah Massengo, who’s out of contract in 2023 and has already been offered a new deal so unless City either have or want to renegotiate different terms, that’s a decision that was made back at the start of the year and, should an agreement not be found, then becomes a transfer discussion.
So too Antoine Semenyo, with the club holding a one-year option affording them greater security and also having opened talks over a potential extension for the forward. While, as it stands, for the other high-profile individuals whose deals expire in 2023, namely Nahki Wells and Kasey Palmer, a decision of them appears to have been made a while ago.
Robbie Cundy (out of contract this summer)
You have to give the centre-back credit. He’s waited almost three years to finally make his City debut and has been drafted into a team who are leaking goals at an alarming rate, that’s also against the backdrop of uncertainty over his future.
He hides it well, both on and off the field, but there must be an air of anxiety given, as it stands, he doesn’t know where he’ll be playing beyond June 30. It seems a pretty simple process, however: if Cundy can stay fit between now and May 7, play and perform in the majority of those fixtures, a contract should be his.
Pearson has admitted he wants “dominant” centre-backs this summer, and will be calling for change after another horrific defensive season but he won’t want to be having to sign too many players in that position, given the problems that may create around cohesion and chemistry. With Cundy already in the building and a Pearson-type of defender, providing certain physical criteria is met, he should really be getting a new deal.
Andy King (out of contract this summer, club holds option)
It’s been a season on great personal fulfilment for the veteran but also regular disappointment; he’s achieved a lifelong dream of signing for, playing, scoring and captaining his boyhood club, where his grandfather first introduced him to the game, but has also suffered two serious hamstring injuries that have drastically limited his involvement on the field.
The latest leaves his participation for the remainder of this season in doubt as he’s not expected back, at the very earliest, until late April. It is possible, but also seems optimistic given his age and the injuries that he’s suffered previously.
How much that detail comes into Pearson’s decision-making is unclear but for all King’s ability - and he’s certainly had some good displays - influence in the dressing room and personality off the field, handing a contract extension (and City hold a 12-month option) to someone who turns 34 in October and has made 10 starts this season seems somewhat of a gamble, and also potentially unnecessary given City’s financial issues.
It also may raise eyebrows not just in the stands but within the squad because, ultimately, in very harsh terms, has he deserved it?
What needs to be considered - and only Pearson can truly answer this because neither you nor I can, given our only true window is 3pm on a Saturday: what is the guidance and leadership King provides at the club worth in raw numbers?
Because if it’s at the lower end of the scale, and King is happy to accept, maybe there’s a consideration for a player/coach role with the acceptance that he’ll play 5-10 games next season. If the value is in the high region, then it becomes a far more complicated decision.
Callum O’Dowda (out of contract this summer, club holds option)
We’ve explored O’Dowda’s situation at length earlier this week but the situation has slightly moved on from Pearson’s position in November when he basically stated that if the winger gets fit, stays fit and plays to a certain level of consistency, there’s every chance his 12-month option is activated.
That sort of did happen and then sort of didn’t with O’Dowda on his way back from a knee injury and expected to be involved in some of the Robins matches between now and the end of the season.
That extra year does give City a degree of flexibility if, for example, Pearson is adamant the 26-year-old simply has to stay; there’s no complications over the need for a new deal, it’ll simply be a matter of actioning those terms and then see how he develops across 2022/23 before a bigger decision needs to be made.
Perhaps that’s the answer given the number of decisions that need to be made elsewhere, with Massengo, Semenyo and Alex Scott’s futures potentially being tested, new deals with the other names on this list and the need for more recruitment into the club and all the negotiations around that.
O’Dowda’s contract decision is a “problem” but an easy one to put off until next summer, if required. However, if Pearson’s mind is made up on the former Oxford winger, having seen him sustain another injury amid an alarming drop off of form, then the other easy choice is simply to let him go on a free transfer.
Timm Klose (out of contract this summer)
Signed as an emergency free transfer in light of Nathan Baker's prolonged absence due to a second concussion, the future of the latter could have an impact on the veteran Swiss' position.
On the face of it, although City's defensive deficiencies haven't been cured by his arrival, the 33-year-old has still been pretty reliable and has produced more good performances than bad ones, also adding some extra experience into the dressing room amid the injury absences of Matty James and Andy King, with the former now having returned.
His greatest achievement, if you want to call it that, has been staying fit as there were doubts, given his lack of professional action beyond Basel's Under-23s in the first half of the campaign coupled with the knee problems that ended his tenure at Norwich, that Klose's limbs may not cope with the physical demands of the Championship.
That hasn't come to pass as he's made 11 starts and completed 90 minutes in all but one; testament to his professionalism and the conditioning he did while in Switzerland and waiting for his destination.
You would imagine Klose would be keen on a stay in Bristol, and you would also imagine that his wage demands are not at the point where it makes City look elsewhere. The key factor is whether or not he's played well enough in the eyes of Pearson to consider him a strong option for next season - because the likelihood is it'll only be another short term deal - and when the manager says he wants centre-backs, exactly how many.
We are looking at a scenario where, of the current complement - Klose, Tomas Kalas, Rob Atkinson, Cundy, Baker and Zak Vyner plus the returning Taylor Moore - only one, Atkinson, can you absolutely, categorically, without doubt say will be at the club for next season.
In that instance, should the turnover in the position be significant, which is possible, having Klose as an option to retain and maintain some consistency in that department makes a lot of sense. We've also not mentioned Baker with any great length, because it's unfair to speculate but the reality is his involvement next season remains uncertain, and City have to legislate for that.
Dan Bentley (out of contract in 2023)
The captain had a big smile on his face when asked about his future earlier this month having returned to the starting XI with some style after an eight-week absence that started to create an element of doubt over his long-term future.
“We’ll see if the club want to keep me! If they do, we’ll be sat here in a couple of months having a slightly different conversation, if they don’t we might not be talking,” he said.
He’s said himself he wants to stay at the club, both for sporting and personal reasons with a young family now in Bristol and both his children born in the city. The Robins' position right now may not seem pretty inspirational but given one of the club’s senior players is excited about what the future may hold, that’s some reason to be optimistic that this trough could soon be followed by a peak. He’s already called wanting to make it a “positively transitional season”, implying everyone believes this is the start of something else.
The question is whether the club want to keep hold of the 28-year-old, and for how long and how much? It’s impossible to know so we can only weigh up the known parameters and that is, Bentley a) probably deserves an extension because he’s been, bar a few spells out, City’s first-choice keeper, making 121 appearances; b) he’s also mostly been good to very good in those games.
Yes, he’s prone to the odd clanger but then there aren’t many Championship goalkeepers who aren’t; c) if there isn’t a will to extend and City are either going to explore a sale this summer or allow him to leave on a free in 2023, do they think they can sign better now or in 12 months and/or do they see Max O’Leary as the more viable long-term option with Harvey Wiles-Richards in reserve, possibly. O’Leary, interestingly, is also a free agent in 2023 but City do hold an option.
When it boils down to it, section c is riddled with hypotheticals and unless there is a definitive and attainable transfer target for this summer to replace him as No1 or City know they can get X in the transfer market (which looks unlikely), then surely at some stage Bentley will be signing new terms.
Jay Dasilva (out of contract in 2023)
The comeback kid, so to speak and increasingly one of the “success stories” of this season given where he was, where he very nearly ended up and where he is now which is, once again, City’s first-choice wing-back - whether that be to the right or the left.
It’s no secret that City explored the possibility of moving Dasilva on in January, primarily to get his wage off the books but also because he simply wasn’t playing so the investment the club were making monthly into him wasn’t showing any return. The only replies they got were largely substandard loan offers so the 23-year-old was retained and it’s very much now worked out for player and club.
In the context of his position in January, even if a departure couldn’t be arranged, the summer looked a likely exit point as he approaches the 12-month countdown for City to try and get something back for the money spent on him. However, now, and this truly shows how much football can change in a very short period of time, it’s quite a different set of circumstances.
Dasilva has clearly impressed Pearson, not just with his performances but they way he’s earned his place back in the team and stuck to his task, being adaptable on the field and in the instructions he receives and he should be a better player for it. That sort of stuff generates currency with the manager and the will to keep Dasilva beyond this summer could well now exist, especially when you consider he is still only 23 and there is so much talent and potential to be mined.
There is also a slightly cynical side to this, however, that by returning to something close to his best form - and he’s still yet to hit the 2018/19 levels yet - he’s been made that little more attractive in the shop window for any potential suitors this summer.
More so than Bentley and more so than Tomas Kalas, it could come down to the personal preference of Pearson and if Dasilva has done enough to convince him that he’s a viable and long-term option at left wing-back - and in that case, yes, he needs to renewed - or there could be more suitable options out there - and in scenario, we’re back to where we were in January.
Tomas Kalas (out of contract in 2023)
It wasn’t that long ago that the big Czech was sat on the top of Ashton Gate with a drone flying around him and City were riding on a crest of a wave of optimism. As we near three summers on and the club is in full rebuild mode: will Kalas be a bedrock of that, or part of the old furniture that needs to be moved on?
It’s a complex decision-making process involving the 28-year-old because on pure ability alone, and probably performance as well, he’s City’s strongest defender and you could up to a point, before Andi Weimann went nuclear and Alex Scott started running games, that he was arguably the Robins’ best player.
The thing is, such is his position on the wage bill, he absolutely should be, that is precisely why City spent a club record transfer fee on him and have paid him to such a degree over the last three years. Being “one of the best”, is about the baseline standard.
Going back to the notion of time, that contract he signed in 2019 looked punchy then and it looks a sledgehammer right now as City look to reduce their wage bill further this summer - ideally by around £5m - and while likely sales/departures of Wells and Palmer will help that, Kalas’ salary sticks out like a sore thumb.
A decision needs to be made this summer because Pearson needs to decide whether it’s worth swallowing that volume of money - and we’re talking around £1.4m - for 12 months, and that’s before we get into the contract aspect of the conversation.
If he feels there are more affordable centre-back options out there, who can also be brought to the club, then maybe it makes sense to test the market as to what they can get for Kalas. That was tentatively done last summer and, surprisingly, there were no takers, given the size of his contract and what City would ideally want in terms of a transfer fee.
Will it be the same in 2022? Possibly, it’s hard at this stage to say, really. And if that is the case, then we’re into Famara Diedhiou-territory here, albeit of a slightly different nature whereby the player isn’t pushing for a move but City have decided they can’t afford to keep him beyond 2023.
There is another path to all this, and that’s extending Kalas - to which there is a very strong case given his qualities - but his wage can be renegotiated, perhaps spread over more years akin to what was presented to Andi Weimann last summer, so a saving can be made.
There is absolutely no suggestion the player himself is seeking a transfer and, like Bentley, appears settled in Bristol. He even said so earlier in the season that he would be keen on an extension. That is, however, before looking at the financials.
And in the case of Kalas it could all come down to market forces and what makes the most financial sense for all parties concerned. At present, and without knowing exactly what is out there, it’s hard to decipher exactly what that is just yet.
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