Five is the key number in the ACT election. There are five electorates, each electorate has five members and the government is usually determined by who wins the fifth seat in each electorate.
In the 2020 poll, the ACT Greens defied expectations to secure the fifth seat in each electorate but whether they will be able to retain these seats is the ultimate question.
There is a lack of reliable polling in the territory and the betting companies don't even run markets on the election so it is really hard to determine how the election will pan out.
Hare-Clark complicates this further as candidates from the same party battle it out to secure seats in the respective electorates. There are circumstances where one party candidate is kicked out in favour of another. Last election Marisa Paterson ousted Bec Cody and Leanne Castley ousted James Milligan (he was later returned). Nobody's seat is safe.
There are some candidates who have been more prominent than others. They have been putting in the hard work with door knocking, holding street stalls and manning polling booths.
But there is the unknown variable of independents. Groups have put together well organised campaigns in an attempt to inject something new into the Assembly. Whether this campaigning has worked won't be determined until well after polling has worked.
Here is a seat-by-seat play for each of Canberra's electorates and what you can (possibly) expect.
Brindabella
Brindabella is the only electorate where sitting members are retiring. Labor's Joy Burch and the Liberals' Nicole Lawder are both not contesting the election, making it an interesting race between the major party candidates.
Not only are there two retiring incumbents but the ACT Greens are unlikely to retain the seat following the high-profile resignation of Johnathan Davis in the wake of allegations of sexual misconduct. He was replaced by Laura Nuttall, who is likable and a very dedicated MLA but she has not had enough time to build her profile.
Brindabella has historically tended to be a strong support ground for the Liberals but the party's vote in the electorate did go down in 2020. Labor is running a strong ticket in the electorate.
Taimus Werner-Gibbings narrowly missed out last time, losing by just 83 votes to Mr Davis. It is the third time Mr Werner-Gibbings is running in the electorate and with Ms Burch's departure it leaves it open for him.
Mick Gentleman has the benefit of incumbency but has not been a high-profile campaigner during the past weeks. He was also ineffectual through the term and was effectively demoted by Chief Minister Andrew Barr in a ministerial reshuffle late last year.
Voters in Canberra are known for supporting women running for office. Ms Burch's supporters are expected to swing heavily behind another Labor woman. Louise Crossman and Caitlin Tough have both campaigned very hard for the party, knowing a seat is genuinely in play.
Mark Parton, the charismatic radio presenter turned Liberal MLA, is a safe bet to retain his seat. A dedicated campaigner, Mr Parton will benefit from a strong primary vote. If the gender voting trend happens again, either Deborah Morris or Rosa Harber will be the second Liberal MLA in Brindabella.
James Daniels and Sandi Mitra have been strong campaigners and one of them could easily nab the third seat if support swings the Liberals way.
The most notable independent in Brindabella is Vanessa Picker, who is running as part of Independents for Canberra. The former Labor member made headlines in August when she declared she would not support Labor if Mr Barr remained as Chief Minister.
Ginninderra
Ginninderra is Labor heartland. An analysis of polling booths has shown the party enjoys consistent support in the electorate.
The Greens' Jo Clay appears to be a popular local member and there is every chance she could retain the seat, even if Labor does win three seats.
The Liberals' share of controversies in the electorate hasn't helped either. The party only has four candidates running after Elizabeth Kikkert was disendorsed. Darren Roberts, another Liberal candidate, was revealed to be Bert Poppins, whose Facebook page posted and endorsed a series of material that was derogatory and called for a "push back" against Indigenous reconciliation efforts.
Mrs Kikkert is unlikely to retain her seat, even with the benefit of incumbency. She is running for the Family First Party and its arch-conservative views are completely out of touch with Canberra.
No ex-Liberal has managed to cling onto their Legislative Assembly seat running for a minor party or as an independent. Mrs Kikkert's supporters are hoping she will make history on Saturday, her detractors note she may split the conservative vote for the Liberals and assist more progressive candidates, including Labor.
The Belco Party, led by former Liberal leader Bill Stefaniak, could further split the Liberals vote.
Peter Cain will likely retain his seat and if the Liberals do manage to scrape over the line, Chiaka Barry is a strong candidate but is untested in the electorate, as is Joe Prevedello.
It would be a complete shock if either Tara Cheyne or Yvette Berry lost their seats. Heidi Prowse is a well-known Canberran and could possibly win the third Labor seat in the electorate.
Mark Richardson, from Independents for Canberra, may be an outside chance. The head of ACT Road Policing gained notoriety earlier this year when he blasted Summernats hoons as "subspecies".
Kurrajong
Party leaders tend to enjoy a boost in their electorates in the ACT. In Kurrajong, the three leaders - Andrew Barr, Elizabeth Lee and Shane Rattenbury - will be going up against each other.
It is the first election where Ms Lee is contesting as leader and this could benefit her but the Liberals are disadvantaged. The party lost their second seat in the electorate in the last election. This was lost to the Greens, who benefit from strong support in Canberra's "lentil belt" inner north.
A redistribution also disadvantages the Liberals after Forrest and Red Hill were moved out of the electorate. Both are Liberal strongholds.
For the Liberals to win back this second seat they have to rely on a swing against the Greens. Voting patterns show the Greens votes in the inner north can swing quite a bit from election to election and the party can record swings against them if they had success in the previous election.
But Kurrajong is also the most highly contested ground for independents. Independents for Canberra leader Thomas Emerson is running in the electorate and has been the most prominent candidate for the party. He could likely take the fifth seat.
However, the independents could face the prospect of a split vote with Strong Independents, made up of Peter Strong and Ann Bray, also running in the electorate. Paul Girrawah House, running for the First Nations Party, could also split the minor party vote further.
Murrumbidgee
While the redistribution disadvantages the Liberals in Kurrajong, it benefits them in Murrumbidgee. It also puts the Greens at risk.
Some Liberal insiders believe they could pick up three seats in Murrumbidgee. The redistribution does boost their chances in the electorate but an independent could take this all away.
Ed Cocks' seat may be in trouble. He has chosen to tie his campaign to Jeremy Hanson and Mr Hanson is likely to pick up most of the first preference votes between the two. Mr Cocks, who entered the Assembly part way through this term, does not have the same profile as Mr Hanson, a former opposition leader (albeit one dumped to the backbench).
Amardeep Singh and Karen Walsh have both run strong campaigns and have constantly been on the hustings. These efforts would have likely persuaded more than a few to vote for them.
The Greens' Emma Davidson, who has served as a minister this term, is in trouble. Bringing Red Hill and Forrest into Murrumbidgee would damage her chances but so would the controversies she has found herself in, including her office being subject to a review following "inappropriate behaviours".
Fiona Carrick, who is running as an independent, may just take this seat off Ms Davidson. She had the fourth-highest preference vote in 2020 but was running as an ungrouped candidate. This time she has registered a party and has support candidates which could boost her chances.
But Independents for Canberra is running five candidates in the electorate which could affect her preferences.
If Labor incumbents Chris Steel and Marisa Paterson were to go it wouldn't be for lack of effort. Both have been campaigning vigorously and it would be hard for another Labor candidate to overtake them.
Murrumbidgee is also the electorate that would benefit most from the light rail to Woden. If it follows the trend of 2016, where Yerrabi had a massive swing towards Labor, then this might work in the government's favour. But it is unclear whether there is the same level of support for the project in the south.
Yerrabi
In 2020, Labor thought they had Yerrabi in the bag. The first stage of the light rail network opened in 2019, connecting Gungahlin with the city. The voters of Yerrabi didn't really care.
Labor is eager not to make the same mistake again. But its two incumbent MLAs in Canberra's northernmost electorate - Michael Pettersson and Suzanne Orr - are not ministers. They do not have the same capacity to demonstrate they get stuff done. They don't get the same media attention.
Both will need to hope they've done enough to generate the profile and goodwill required to translate into votes. Otherwise the natural level of Labor support in the electorate may filter through to others on the ticket. Incumbency guarantees nothing in territory politics.
Leanne Castley, who was elevated to the deputy leadership of the Canberra Liberals this term, is a sure bet to keep her seat. Warm, friendly and outgoing, Ms Castley has been a hit in the community.
James Milligan, who only got back into the Assembly at the start of the term when former leader Alistair Coe called it quits, is less visible. His profile in the media is minimal. The number of press conferences he has given this term can be counted on one hand. He will need to have demonstrated good community links to make up for the paucity of his parliamentary agenda if he is to retain his seat.
As is the way with multi-member electorates, the biggest threats can come from within. John Mikita is one of the Liberals' star candidates. Mr Mikita has campaigned for more police and police resources for years as his grandmother's 1999 murder went unsolved.
His message is clear, concise and he has drive. A candidate of this calibre is what the Liberals need. If he's done the work properly, he could leapfrog Mr Milligan and claim a seat in the Assembly.
Greens' insiders believe there is a large enough vote for the party in the electorate that they will retain the seat no matter what. Andrew Braddock, the party's incumbent candidate, is a committed community advocate but doesn't perform well in the harsh glare of the political spotlight. While the party might be confident of retaining this seat, they probably shouldn't rest easy just yet.
David Pollard, who has run twice as an independent for the Legislative Assembly, is running again. This time he is part of the Independents for Canberra. He received 2.6 per cent of the vote in 2020 and finished 14th. The party's other candidate, Sneha KC is a registered nurse and has been prominent in the campaign.
