It’s the political leadership job no one’s in a hurry to campaign for.
Twelve days on from the New South Wales election and the role of opposition leader remains vacant, with contenders guarded on their interest.
A complex game of political musical chairs is being played out in the southern suburbs of Sydney, amid speculation the former prime minister Scott Morrison could soon announce his departure from federal politics.
Mark Speakman, the NSW Liberal MP for Cronulla and a potential leadership contender after Dominic Perrottet stepped down, is said to be weighing a move to federal politics via a run in Morrison’s seat of Cook.
With former treasurer Matt Kean ruling himself out, Speakman, a senior barrister and the former NSW attorney general, is regarded as the leading candidate from the dominant moderate faction. Except he is yet to declare his candidacy.
Colleagues said he was not ringing around seeking support, and no one else was either. One MP said it was as if the party had become “catatonic” after the election on 25 March.
Speakman did not return the Guardian’s calls on Wednesday.
Party insiders are worried that if Speakman, who was just re-elected, were to attempt a switch to federal politics, the two resulting byelections – one federal and one state – could deliver unfavourable results.
There is also no clear indication when Morrison might go.
Guardian Australia has been told he is seeking a job overseas and there are predictions the announcement could come as early as the Easter break, or as late as mid-year.
When Speakman was asked in early March by his local newspaper, the Leader, if he would consider a switch to federal politics, he left the door open.
“Win or lose government, my intention if I am re-elected is to serve four years,” he told the Leader.
Asked if he would consider a switch if Cook became vacant, he replied: “I’ll cross that bridge if I come to it, but at the moment my intention is to run the full four years in Cronulla.”
Only one senior NSW Liberal has publicly put their hat in the ring for the opposition leader’s job: the former planning minister Anthony Roberts.
But Roberts is of the right faction. He could become leader if no one else nominates but he would struggle in a contested election if a moderate was also seeking the job.
Alister Henskens, the former minister for sport, has also been mooted, but has not yet publicly declared his hand. Loosely affiliated with the right of the party, he could gain moderate support if Speakman doesn’t run. But he too has not been actively canvassing the leadership, backbenchers said.
The NSW parliament is not expected to sit until May, which gives the Liberals time to select a leader, but leaves the party unable to undertake a post-election review.
On Wednesday, the NSW Nationals leader Paul Toole narrowly held on to his position after a challenge from Dubbo MP Dugald Saunders.
The party’s deputy leader, Bronnie Taylor, was also returned to her position after walking into the meeting alongside her “friend” Saunders.
When asked who she voted for, Taylor insisted “that’s a matter that I don’t discuss”.
Toole defended the Nationals’ post-election position after the party vote and took a swipe at the Liberals.
“The National party lost one seat, and for me that’s still very disappointing,” he said.
“If the Liberal party only lost one seat then we’d be in government today.”
Guardian Australia approached Morrison and Roberts for comment.
