You would be forgiven for assuming World Cup qualification would be sealed by simply winning one's play-off final.
Makes sense, right? But no.
Should Wales Women win their World Cup play-off final against Switzerland on Tuesday, October 11, they will likely go through to yet another round of knockout football in their bid to reach a first-ever major tournament.
Read more: Wales v Switzerland kick-off time, TV channel, form and underdog status
Here's a look at how the play-offs work and what results Wales need to automatically qualify for the 2023 World Cup:
How do the World Cup play-off finals work? Who is playing?
There are three Women's World Cup play-off finals being played on the same day, although not all kick off at the same time. It means should Wales win, they may have a wait on their hands to determine their next step, or whether their World Cup journey is over.
UEFA say the two play-off winners with the highest ranking will automatically qualify for the World Cup. But the remaining play-off winner will need to compete in the inter-confederation play-offs in New Zealand next February.
As for how the three play-off winners are separated, they will be ranked based on results in the qualifying group stage (against the sides ranked first, third, fourth and fifth in their section) and the play-off final, with the latter offering three points for a win in regular or extra time or one point if a win comes via a penalty shootout. You can read more from UEFA here.
The three World Cup play-off finals
Tuesday, October 11, all UK kick-off times
- Switzerland v Wales, 6pm
- Portugal v Iceland, 6pm
- Scotland v Ireland, 8pm
What results do Wales need to automatically qualify?
A Welsh win by two goals or more in regular or extra time will give Wales hope, but they need results elsewhere to do them a favour. Portugal, playing Iceland, or Scotland, facing Ireland an hour later than Wales' kick-off, would have to win on penalties (thereby accruing fewer available points) to send Wales through automatically, but Grainger's side need a win by two goals for that to happen.
In a nutshell:
- Wales will not qualify if they lose to Switzerland
- Wales will have to play in the inter-confederation play-offs if they beat Switzerland
- If Wales win by two goals or more in normal or extra-time AND Portugal or Scotland win on penalties, Wales will qualify for the 2023 World Cup, which would be their first-ever major tournament
What do Wales need to do to reach inter-confederation play-off?
A Welsh win by any margin would likely send them to a 10-team inter-confederation play-off stage next February, where they would have one more match to get through to reach the 2023 Women's World Cup.
As things stand ahead of the play-off finals, Wales would be the top seeds for the inter-continental play-off which would mean one competitive match out there. There would need to be a seismic shift in rankings to result in Wales needing to play two competitive play-off matches in New Zealand.
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How will the inter-confederation play-offs work?
A 10-team tournament will be held from February 17-23, 2023, in New Zealand to decide the last three finalists.
Continental allocation: AFC: 2 (Chinese Taipei, Thailand), CAF: 2 (Cameroon, Senegal), CONCACAF: 2 (Haiti, Panama), CONMEBOL: 2 (Chile, Paraguay), OFC: 1 (Papua New Guinea), UEFA: 1 (TBC).
The teams will be split into three groups, two of three teams and one of four, with seeding decided by FIFA rankings. All three groups will be played as separate knockout competitions with the winner of each qualifying for the finals. In the two three-team groups, the seeded team will go straight to the final (after playing a friendly against New Zealand or another guest nation) and meet the winner of a semi-final between the other two nations.
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