On Wednesday night, the Republican party staged its fourth primary debate, the last one before next month’s Iowa caucus.
Once again, Donald Trump won in absentia. His repeated absences from these dust-ups have burnished his image among the party faithful. He holds an insurmountable and growing lead. Indictments and headlines have only boosted his popularity. He laps the field, running 40 points ahead of Ron DeSantis nationally. Other than Chris Christie, no one on the stage in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, did anything to alter these realities.
Vivek Ramaswamy was his usual loud and attention-seeking self. He loves the sound of his own voice. Yet his boomlet is dead. At this juncture, there is no primary that he can conceivably win. He is killing time, hoping for a spot in a second Trump administration. With the 45th president polling ahead of Joe Biden, it is a reasonable strategy.
Ramaswamy tried to take a hatchet to Christie and Nikki Haley, only to bloody himself. His attacks on Haley smacked of sexism. He left the night with little doubt that he really is a bully and a fan of conspiracy theories.
Next up, DeSantis, Florida’s hapless governor. Like a chicken with its head lopped off, he staggers aimlessly. His campaign and affiliated political action committee burn through cash with nothing to show for their efforts. On a personal level, he has failed to distinguish himself from Trump other than by claiming greater mental acuity and youthfulness.
Months ago, he had a chance to land a meaningful blow on Trump. Instead, he pulled his punches and whiffed. Doubling down as a social warrior has left him in a perpetual state of retrograde. Picking a fight with Disney turned out to be stupid. The company is Florida’s largest employer; everyone loves Mickey Mouse.
DeSantis, a Harvard law school graduate with membership in St Elmo, a Yale secret society, has repeatedly demonstrated himself to be tone-deaf, unrelatable and unlikable, the worst sin for any politician.
He couldn’t even land a lasting blow on Gavin Newsom, California’s Democratic governor. When the two clashed last week on Fox, DeSantis was forced to defend his own record on abortion, crime and Covid, to the delectation of Trump. Florida really is a place where people go to die.
For DeSantis, the Iowa caucus is a must-win contest. If he can’t win there, he can’t win anywhere. According to the latest polls, he trails Trump in Iowa by more than 20 points. The endorsement he received from Bob Vander Plaats, a leading Iowa evangelical, appears to be little more than a headline-grabbing nothing-burger. There is a reason why Haley is poised to overtake him among the Republican also-rans.
As for New Hampshire, DeSantis’s brand of social conservatism has found few takers. This is the “Live Free or Die” state, in case he forgot. Regardless, DeSantis gave Trump a pass on pledging to be a dictator, and refused to say whether or not he believed Trump to be unfit to hold office.
Turning to Nikki Haley: the fact that she is the darling of the deep-pocketed set should not be confused with popularity among actual rank-and-file voters. Her appeal to the higher-end of the Republican electorate will not be enough to get her first to the finish line; not even close.
A November poll out of South Carolina, where Haley served as governor, shows Trump beating her by more than 30 points. In other words, those who know her best don’t appear to like her all that much.
Chris Christie, however, may have delivered the evening’s most memorable performance. He labeled Trump a dictator, called him unfit for office, and referred to him as Voldemort – that is, he who must not be named.
“I understand why these three are timid to say anything about him,” Christie jibed. “He just said this past week he wants to use [the Department of Justice] to go after his enemies. He is unfit to be president.” Christie also trashed Ramaswamy as an “obnoxious blowhard” and questioned his credentials as a Republican.
Yet Christie, too, faces the realities of the primary map. He runs poorly everywhere except New Hampshire. How he can get beyond that small piece of real estate is unclear. With Haley surging, he struggles to retain relevance.
Disturbingly, Tom Fitton, the leader of the well-funded, rightwing Judicial Watch, was one of the night’s questioners. He is a Trump lackey who helped script Trump’s defiance. In a 31 October 2020 email, Fitton urged Trump to declare himself the election winner, regardless of the actual outcome.
He called for Trump to demand that only votes “counted by the election day deadline” be tallied. Later, Fitton argued that White House records were Trump’s to keep. These days, the 45th president stands under federal indictment in Washington DC for January 6 and in Florida for allegedly absconding with government records.
The clock clicks down. The primaries and Trump’s trial dates creep up. The open question is whether Trump prevails in both sets of forums.
Lloyd Green is an attorney in New York and served in the US Department of Justice from 1990 to 1992
