Editor’s Note: Welcome to the second annual installment of “The Replacements,” an SI Fantasy series focused on vacated volume that projects how teams will replace production year-to-year. This offseason, we’re analyzing the six teams with the highest percentage of available targets and the six teams with the highest percentage of available carries heading into 2023.
For the first time in years, there’s reason for optimism in Houston regarding the direction of the Texans. DeMeco Ryans was brought in to take over as head coach and quarterback C.J. Stroud was selected second in April’s draft.
Houston won an NFL-worst 11 games over the last three seasons and finished bottom-three in both scoring and yardage each of the last two years. No one expects the Texans to make a playoff run this season but things are looking up at NRG Stadium with a roster that has seen some serious shakeup in the offseason.
Stroud is replacing Davis Mills, a third-round pick in 2021 who started 28 games under center over the past two seasons. Brandin Cooks, the top receiver three years running, was traded to the Cowboys. Nico Collins is the only one of Houston’s six most-targeted receivers who is returning. Other than Cooks, Chris Moore, Jordan Akins, Rex Burkhead and Phillip Dorsett are all no longer with the team.
The Texans lead the NFL in total vacated targets (357) and percentage of vacated targets (63.9%), according to 4for4.com, and it’s not close. They have 99 more available targets than the next closest team and no other team has a vacated target rate higher than 50%. There is a ton of volume up for grabs in this offense, and though rookie quarterbacks don’t typically support high-end fantasy seasons for receivers, as the old adage goes, someone has to catch passes.
Texans 2022 Targets
Aside from Collins, the rest of the pass catchers are relative newcomers. Tight end Dalton Schultz and receivers Robert Woods and Noah Brown all signed with the team in free agency. Receivers Nathaniel “Tank” Dell and Xavier Hutchinson were drafted in the third and sixth rounds, respectively. And 2022 second-round pick John Metchie III, who missed his rookie year after he was diagnosed with leukemia, is set to make his NFL debut in his sophomore season.
Ryans tapped Bobby Slowik, the 49ers’ former passing game coordinator, to be his offensive coordinator. With so much turnover from the coaching staff down to the personnel, it’s difficult to draw too much from Houston’s recent offensive stats, though it’s at least worth noting that the Texans, who had the third-worst point differential in the league, ranked ninth in passing rate (60.79%) in 2022.
With a win total set at 5.5, it’s safe to assume that Stroud will have to sling the ball around quite a bit with his team trailing this year, which is good news for his new group of pass-catchers.
These are the key players who will step up in Houston’s offense in 2023 and soak up a share of the most vacated volume in the league.
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Dalton Schultz
Schultz is coming off his worst statistical season since 2019, but he was still the No. 2 option for Dak Prescott behind CeeDee Lamb. His 89 targets were the seventh-most among tight ends even though he missed two games, and he also hauled in five touchdowns. Schultz’s best statistical season came in 2021 when he caught 78 of 104 targets for 808 yards and eight touchdowns — all career bests — and finished as the TE3.
It’s entirely possible that Schultz leads the Texans in targets. Slowik comes over from San Francisco, where he worked under Kyle Shanahan, whose system is known for focusing on the middle of the field. Tight end George Kittle was utilized often in that offense and he led the team in targets and receiving yards twice.
Schultz will be a good safety net for Stroud, especially considering running back Dameon Pierce isn’t known as a pass-catching threat out of the backfield — that will be offseason addition Devin Singletary’s job. And though Houston doesn’t profile as a high-scoring offense, the 6’5” Schultz, who has 11 red-zone touchdowns over the last two seasons, is a good option to have around the end zone.
Nico Collins
Collins, a third-round pick in 2021, hasn’t been much of a fantasy asset so far in his career. He missed three games as a rookie and seven as a sophomore due to foot and groin injuries. On a per-game basis, his production increased from 31.9 yards per game to 48.1 in Year 2, which would put him on pace for more than 800 yards over a full 17-game season. Collins is a big target at 6’4” who was a threat to rip off long plays at Michigan, where he averaged nearly 20 yards per catch as a junior.
Cooks, Moore and Akins all saw more passes than Collins in 2022 but his 66 returning targets are the most on the team by far. Still, he has only made three trips to the end zone in the NFL. Given the competition the front office brought in, Collins is not likely to see a noticeable difference in volume, though his season-long stats could see an uptick if he’s able to stay healthy.
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John Metchie III
Metchie tore his ACL in the 2021 SEC Championship at Alabama and subsequently fell to the second round of the draft. He was diagnosed with leukemia last July and missed the entirety of his rookie year while he underwent treatment. And now, Metchie is recovering from a hamstring strain but is reportedly expected to be ready for training camp.
The last time he was seen on a football field, he had 97 yards and a touchdown before halftime when he went down against Georgia. Metchie totaled 1,142 yards and eight touchdowns on 96 catches his junior year for the Crimson Tide. It’s been almost two years since he last played, but given the draft capital and the talent he showed before his injury and diagnosis, look for Metchie to be involved in the Texans offense with the caveat that this will be his first action at the NFL level, same as Dell and Hutchinson.
Robert Woods
Entering his age 31 season, the best fantasy days of Woods’ career are likely in the past. His receiving yardage has decreased in four straight seasons and he hardly made an impact with the Titans last season despite playing all 17 games after an ACL tear. Woods led the Titans in receiving yards, which isn’t saying much. He finished with 527 yards on 40 receptions and his 31 yards per game average was the lowest of his career.
Woods figures to be a good veteran presence in a young receiver room full of first-, second- and third-year players. Two years removed from a season-ending injury, he could bring some burst that he didn’t show in Tennessee, but he doesn’t figure to be a key fantasy contributor on his third team in three years.
Other Receivers
Houston also signed Brown from Dallas, a fellow Buckeye like Stroud, who had more production last season than the first four years of his career combined. Brown’s 555 receiving yards were good for third-most on the Cowboys after Lamb and Schultz. But after a hot start — primarily with backup Cooper Rush playing for the injured Prescott — Brown’s involvement tailed off as the season went on.
Dell is intriguing considering that Stroud asked his new team to draft the Houston receiver after the two bonded at the combine. Dell is a slight target at 5’10” and 165 pounds, but his production in college was undeniable. He led the FBS with 1,398 yards and 17 touchdowns in 2022 and had 1,329 yards and 12 scores the year prior.
Hutchinson, a late-round pick out of Iowa State, has a difficult path to fantasy relevance with so many pass-catchers ahead of him. He’ll be a 23-year-old rookie but he contributed all three seasons with the Cyclones after a stint in junior college, culminating in a 107-catch, 1,171-yard campaign as a senior.
Summary
The new piece of this passing offense with the most obvious upside is Schultz. He has the potential to see in the neighborhood of 90 targets, if not more, and volume like that is a virtual guarantee for another top-10 tight end finish — Michael Fabiano has him ranked as his TE10. Keep an eye on training camp reports to see which receiver(s) — Collins, Metchie, Woods, Dell — Stroud develops a rapport with as the summer goes on.
