Russell Wilson is the Broncos’ leading returning rusher.
Once a dynamic threat to take off and run, the veteran quarterback has dialed things back in recent years. The fact that his 277 yards from 2022 — a career-low — is the highest rushing total of any returning player is illustrative of the situation in Denver.
Latavius Murray left for the Bills in free agency while Melvin Gordon, who was released in November and picked up by the Chiefs, remains unsigned. Chase Edmonds and Mike Boone both found new homes after the season and Marlon Mack is still a free agent. Only two running backs who took snaps for the Broncos last season remain on the roster: Javonte Williams, who tore his ACL and LCL in October, and Tyler Badie, who had just one carry as a rookie.
Denver’s big move at running back was plucking Samaje Perine away from the Bengals and inking him to a two-year, $7.5-million contract. Perine has been productive in spurts across his six-year career but he hasn’t finished with more than 100 carries in a season since his rookie campaign in 2017. Williams’ recovery may dictate just how involved Perine will be, though coach Sean Payton did have an affinity for utilizing multiple running backs in New Orleans and he’s already made it clear he wants his new team to establish the run.
The Broncos have 319 vacated running back carries, according to 4for4, the second-most in the NFL. That figure accounts for 86.9% of their carries by the position, which is also the second-highest percentage in the league. So even if Williams is active for Week 1, there’s plenty of work to go around in this backfield.
Denver ranked in the bottom half of the league in run-play percentage (41.19%) in 2022, which makes sense considering how often they were behind on the scoreboard and forced to abandon their rushing attack. The Broncos -72 point differential was sixth worst in the league. Beyond adding Perine and bringing Payton out of retirement, the front office made the offensive line a priority and signed guard Ben Powers and tackle Mike McGlinchey. PFF ranks the Broncos O-line as the league’s 11th-best heading into 2023, 10 spots up from where it finished last year.
Here’s how the backfield touch distribution might shake out in the Mile High City this season.
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Javonte Williams 2023 Projection
Williams was on the field in a limited capacity at OTAs last month, an encouraging sign for a potential Week 1 return. Payton even went as far as saying that he expects him to be ready for the start of training camp. Williams’ status will become clearer as the summer progresses, but considering he’s already out on the field is positive news for his outlook.
As a second-round rookie out of North Carolina, Williams split time with Gordon in 2021. They each logged exactly 203 carries and the veteran Gordon just barely outgained Williams on the ground, finishing with 918 rushing yards to Williams’ 903. The first-year pro’s underlying numbers were extremely encouraging, though. Even though he was tied for the 15th-most rushing attempts in the league, his 31 broken tackles led all players and his 2.3 yards after contact per attempt was tied for eighth-best.
Williams took over as the full-time starter in 2022 but his stint was cut short in Week 4 by a season-ending knee injury. Up to that point, Williams had gained 204 yards on 47 carries for an anemic Broncos offense. Even though he took over as the starter, his average number of carries stayed consistent, though he did become much more involved as a receiver.
Considering the degree of the injury he suffered, Williams might not handle a heavy workload immediately upon his return, whether that’s in the season opener or later in the year. The result might be something similar to Williams’ stat line as a rookie, though perhaps with increased efficiency thanks to the upgrades in the trenches.
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Samaje Perine 2023 Projection
Perine is coming off his best season with the Bengals and a career-best campaign as a receiver. He gained 394 yards on 95 carries and found the end zone twice and also caught 38 of 51 targets for 287 yards and four touchdowns. The majority of Perine’s production in 2022 came in the two games he started in Joe Mixon’s place: He gained 237 all-purpose yards and scored three times on 42 touches.
It’s been a while since Perine shouldered a starter’s workload for more than a game or two but he proved to be more than up to the task when Zac Taylor called upon him. And if Williams’ recovery is indeed on track for an early season return that’s what he’ll be asked to do. Again, that timeline will become clearer as Week 1 nears.
Perine has been very durable the last few seasons. He missed 20 games in the first three years of his career and two in three seasons since. That’s important given Williams’ current situation and the fact that Tony Jones Jr. and Badie have less than 100 career touches between the two of them.
Broncos Running Backs Fantasy Football Summary
This team is going to run the ball. A lot. Ideally, Williams and Perine will be splitting carries with the rushing work tipping in Williams’ favor. But it’s entirely possible that it’s a one-man show for Perine in September if Williams isn’t ready to go yet. That would make Perine (RB34) a downright steal at his current draft position. At RB30, Williams’ average draft position is surprisingly tame but the hype train could ratchet that up if there’s positive reports come August. We could be looking at a lesser version of what Payton had in New Orleans with Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. Both players saw 200-plus touches in 2017 on their way to top-six fantasy finishes. Perine has already said that Payton’s two-back system is part of what drew him to Denver. In practice, that approach will yield positive results for both Perine and Williams in what projects to be an exponentially better Broncos offense in 2023.
Editor’s Note: Welcome to the second annual installment of “The Replacements,” an SI Fantasy series focused on vacated volume that projects how teams will replace production year-to-year. This offseason, we’re analyzing the six teams with the highest percentage of available targets and the six teams with the highest percentage of available carries heading into 2023.
