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Business
South Asia correspondent Avani Dias

The Rajapaksa family maintained an iron grip on power in Sri Lanka for decades. Then it started to unravel

Mahinda Rajapaksa (left) has stepped down amid escalating protests against his rule, but his brother Gotabaya Rajapaksa is still in power.  (AP: Eranga Jayawardena)

It was a moment that even a few months ago would have been inconceivable: The Prime Minister of Sri Lanka, a member of the all-powerful Rajapaksa family, was forced to quit. 

Mahinda Rajapaksa's resignation this week wasn't a routine toppling of a leader.

His fall is seen as a major blow to a dynasty that has had an unshakeable grip on the island nation for most of the last 20 years. 

It was only possible after a persistent grassroots movement of daily protests demanding a new political regime.

"It's one of those amazing moments where we've seen thousands of people coming and peacefully protesting for weeks," said Bhavani Fonseca, senior researcher and lawyer at Colombo's Centre for Policy Alternatives.

"[They were] saying, 'enough is enough, we need the Rajapaksas out, we need a systemic change'. 

"It's quite amazing … the impact it has had."

To understand the significance of this, it's important to look at the Rajapaksa family's history in Sri Lanka. 

The rise of the Rajapaksa clan 

The Rajapaksas first entered local politics in the 1930s, backed by their business owning rice fields and coconut plantations in Hambantota, on Sri Lanka's south coast.

The clan slowly grew its political influence over the years.

When Mahinda Rajapaksa (right) was elected president, he quickly appointed his brother Gotabaya as his defence chief.  (Twitter: Mahinda Rajapaksa)

But it wasn't until 2005 when Mahinda Rajapaksa was elected president — the country's most powerful position — that the family really began dominating the scene. 

His younger brother Gotabaya Rajapaksa was a military officer and Mahinda immediately promoted him to defence secretary.

Other relatives were also given prominent roles, including their brothers Basil and Chamal, who served as cabinet ministers. 

Mahinda's 33-year-old son Yoshitha served as his chief of staff.

The family's rise coincided with Sri Lanka's civil war between the Sinhalese-dominated government and the separatist group, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam.

Sinhalese people make up about 75 per cent of the country, while Sri Lankan Tamil and Indian Tamil people are about 15 per cent.

"The Rajapaksas have had a very magnetic hold over the people for at least two decades," said Jehan Pereira from Sri Lanka's National Peace Council.

"This has come because Mahinda Rajapaksa has an ethos which resonates with the Sinhala ethnic majority."

But Mr Pereira said while this ethos helped the president maintain his grip on power, it also polarised the nation.

"On the one hand, his ethnic nationalism has enabled him to woo the ethnic majority voter base but on the other hand, the ethnic minorities have felt alienated and marginalised," he said. 

Mahinda Rajapaksa, with his defence secretary brother Gotabaya by his side, ended the 26-year civil war in 2009.

The war was mainly a clash between the Sinhalese-dominated Sri Lankan government and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam insurgent group.  (Reuters: Buddhika Weerasinghe)

Both sides were accused of war crimes and Mr Rajapaksa faced criticism for how he clinched victory, with 40,000 Tamil civilians alleged to have been killed by government forces in the final weeks of fighting.

"The majority Sinhalese community saw them as defeating terrorism, but the minority see them as being associated with serious human rights violations," Ms Fonseca said.

"So an extremely divisive family, but very popular."

After a brief fall, the Rajapaksas rise again

Mahinda Rajapaksa was defeated in the vote for a third-term presidency in 2015.

His loss came amid several corruption allegations and bad investment deals that would end up haunting his family a few years down the track. 

"There have been many projects they have undertaken which are like white elephant projects," Mr Pereira said.

Critics of the Rajapaksa-led government say they wasted loaned money in white elephant projects.  (Reuters: Dinuka Liyanawatte)

"[They] make no economic sense, like building the tallest tower in South Asia … it is empty today.

"This type of unproductive investment has convinced people that they have been misusing the resources of the country for their own personal ends."

But Mahinda Rajapaksa refused to give up.

He struck a deal with the new government and managed to claw himself back into a powerful position, taking over as prime minister in 2018.

It wasn't until Sri Lanka's devastating Easter Sunday bombings in 2019, which left more than 270 people dead, that the Rajapaksas saw an opportunity.

More than 200 were killed and hundreds were injured in eight blasts that rocked churches and hotels in Sri Lanka in 2019.  (AP: Eranga Jayawardena)

By pitching themselves as the country's saviours in the face of terrorism, they were able to reclaim dominance. 

Gotabaya Rajapaksa used his military background to gain popularity in the wake of the attacks and was elected President in that same year.

He appointed his three brothers into the country's most powerful positions, including Mahinda as prime minister.

"The Easter attacks went back to this notion of needing a leader who could address national security, and soon after the attacks this call for a strong leader emerged," Ms Fonseca said.

"Gotabaya Rajapaksa came in with a mandate of addressing national security, stability, economic growth and there was a lot of expectation that he would be the answer to all our problems, and he got a huge mandate.

"His party got a further mandate in 2020 with the parliamentary elections."

How rice changed everything for the Rajapaksas

Almost three years into his presidency things started to rapidly deteriorate for Gotabaya Rajapaksa and his family.

Last year, the government banned chemical fertiliser without consulting farmers about the immediate abandonment of traditional farming practices.

Six months after going organic, the country that was once self-sufficient in rice production had to import more than $600 million of foreign rice.

Sri Lanka's government decided its agriculture industry should go organic without consulting farmers or supporting the transition.  (Reuters: Vivek Prakash)

"The protests actually started with farmers protesting the very wrong-headed decision by the president to ban the use of chemical fertilisers overnight," Mr Pereira said.

"Farmers spontaneously came onto the streets to protest and say 'our livelihoods are going to be wiped out', but the government didn't relent."

Those protests have escalated as people struggle without basic services like food, fuel and medicine because the country can't afford to import goods because of massive foreign debts.

After one brother fell, will the other follow? 

Economists say a perfect storm has created this crisis.

But they say the Rajapaksa family created the conditions that allowed the storm clouds to gather. 

Analysts are divided on whether President Gotabaya Rajapaksa will follow his brother's lead and resign.  (Twitter: Mahinda Rajapaksa)

Successive decisions by Rajapaksa-led governments to get foreign loans from countries like China and India, which saw little economic return, have played a large role. 

People who once voted for and supported the Rajapaksas for their firm stance on security, were out calling for their resignation. 

"There's so much diversity among protesters," Ms Fonseca said.

"Both the rural and the urban, the middle class coming out. All age groups — from students to the elderly, to professionals.

"So it's quite remarkable to see this kind of energy and peaceful civic mobilisation."

Those protests were largely peaceful, until this week when pro-Rajapaksa supporters were bussed into the capital from the countryside and attacked demonstrators. 

Authorities deployed armed troops in Colombo after government supporters attacked protesters this week.  (AP)

Hundreds of people have gone to hospital and several have died.

A few hours later, Mahinda Rajapaksa announced his resignation.

He had to be evacuated from his residence that night after it was surrounded by angry crowds.

"It is very, very sad that at the very end, Mahinda Rajapaksa unleashed the demons in our society and led to this terrible catastrophe where he goes without the gratitude that he might have expected from the people," Mr Pereira said. 

"We thought that they would remain there for a long time to come. So this has come as an absolute surprise."

But this resignation isn't enough for the protesters.

Their mantra has been "Go Home Gota" calling for President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to resign too, among other demands for systemic changes.

He's holding onto the presidency using force — police are dismantling protests and security forces have the power to shoot any violent protesters.

Experts say Gotabaya Rajapaksa is pushing the country towards militarisation, but after one brother's resignation, protesters are galvanising for more.

Many protesters are demanding Sri Lanka's President Gotabaya Rajapaksa follow his brother and step down from power.  (Reuters: Navesh Chitrakar)
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