A large swath of the American betting public picked the Las Vegas Raiders to beat the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday night. I can’t imagine many of them felt great about it.
How could they? The Raiders were 5-7, even after a recent three-game winning streak. And they had a tendency to blow big leads, which they were sure to grab against the shorthanded Rams.
All season going into Thursday’s game, it was hard to tell whether they were the worst good team in the NFL or the best bad team.
Then, they did it again. Favored by 6.5 points, the Raiders built a 13-point lead just to squander it in the fourth quarter and lose to Baker Mayfield three days removed from the waiver wire. It’s the Raiders’ fourth loss this season in games they’ve led by at least 13 points. They’re 0-4 in games they’ve held double-digit halftime leads.
Fans are roasting head coach Josh McDaniels for another embarrassing loss, but it’s about time Derek Carr shoulders some blame too.
Carr is the longest tenured starting quarterback with one team in the NFL aside from Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay. But in nine seasons with the Raiders, he has just two winning seasons and no playoff wins. It’s rare that quarterbacks are afforded so much time to build such an underwhelming resume.
At times, it’s easy to see why he’s stuck around so long. The talent is there — he’s on pace for his fifth straight 4,000-yard season. And the Raiders know how much worse things could be after spending an entire decade prior to Carr searching for Rich Gannon’s replacement. But those years of suffering also lowered the bar for what a franchise quarterback needed to be. If Carr was marginally good, he would receive the benefit of doubt.
That’s exactly what’s happened. When things go wrong for the Raiders, it’s everyone else’s fault but Carr. But after Thursday night’s meltdown, it’s very obvious Carr is part of the problem. The above average quarterback that he is, Carr can help a team build a 16-3 lead. However, it takes a great quarterback to put games away. Instead, Carr languished against a secondary that has been bad all season — he went 11-of-20 for 137 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions.
Derek Carr as a favorite against the spread (@Bet_Labs)
All games: 16-28-1 (36%) ATS
Favorite 3 or more pts: 8-21-1 (28%) ATS
Road favorite of 3+ pts: 1-7-1 (12%) ATS@Raiders -6.5 at Rams pic.twitter.com/cMOQUxn9tx— John Ewing 🦁 (@johnewing) December 8, 2022
He’s running out of excuses, though. After Carr finally played his first playoff game last year, the Raiders made moves in the offseason to give themselves a chance to return. They traded for Carr’s college roommate and good friend Davante Adams, who remains one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. And Carr also has the NFL’s leading rusher in his backfield thanks to a breakout season for Josh Jacobs.
Both Adams and Jacobs were effective on Thursday, and yet Carr had maybe his most pedestrian game of the season — he was just 2-of-7 passing for 11 yards in the second half, when it mattered most. Just when you think he’s good, a game like this is right around the corner.
It’s hard to tell if Carr is the worst good quarterback or the best bad quarterback in the NFL. The Raiders are a reflection of that. As long as he’s leading them, they’re a tough team to trust.
