While the focus is currently on why police aren’t doing more to move the protesters on from Parliament, pressure is starting to mount on politicians too. Political editor Jo Moir looks at the various manoeuvres at play.
Analysis: For 12 days Parliament grounds and the surrounding area has been occupied by a protest movement that runs by its own rules.
Much like Vatican City in Rome, the so-called freedom city on Parliament’s lawn has for almost two weeks had its own authority, ownership, and jurisdiction completely distinct from Wellington.
Security guards from the protest are now actively stopping police officers from coming on site, saying they’ve been trespassed, and over the course of the week reporters from various media outlets have been told to leave.
Reporters are now required to email and report to a media liaison officer before approaching anyone for comment.
As the protesters spread further into the city – they now occupy part of Victoria University, the streets of Pipitea and Thorndon, the courts and other public and private land – attention is turning to what it would take to move them on.
From an operational perspective the police have failed according to politicians, officials and locals spoken to by Newsroom.
When anti-mandate protesters descended on Parliament late last year the police response was to assume the worst given the messages and threats circulating on platforms like Telegram.
Parliament was flooded with frontline police officers, including a special tactics group, and plans were in place if attempts were made to storm the building.
Police have been setting up cordons up and down the country for the last two years to deal with Covid and regional borders but made no attempt to do the same for a protest that by international standards was clearly going to cause traffic gridlock.
This time round police concentrated on making sure protesters couldn’t get onto the forecourt or steps of Parliament as they had last year but ignored the ultimate warning – the convoy element of this protest.
There was already an international playbook for how the mass of vehicles would disrupt the city – Canada, France and Australia were already dealing with it.
Yet, no efforts were made to put a perimeter around the city – not a difficult task when there are only two roads into the capital.
Police have been setting up cordons up and down the country for the last two years to deal with Covid and regional borders but made no attempt to do the same for a protest that by international standards was clearly going to cause traffic gridlock.
When a review is done it will be revealing just how Police Commissioner Andrew Coster explains why his frontline officers were so organised in December and then completely underestimated threats just two months later.
The political solution will be to make Coster the scapegoat and remove him as the country’s most senior police officer for failing to stop the convoy from arriving and making Parliament its home in the first place.
But that does little to resolve things in the short-term and now that a community of like-minded people enjoying the pleasures of free food and shelter are settled in for the long-haul, politicians must find a way to break the stalemate with protesters.
The meetings behind closed doors
When Parliament’s business committee, which has representatives from each political party, had its regular Tuesday afternoon meeting the protest – which had been going a week - barely made it on the agenda.
The National Party had already publicly aired its disapproval of Speaker Trevor Mallard turning on the sprinklers and blasting bad music from Parliament over the weekend to drive the protesters out.
As Parliament’s representative of all political parties, Mallard made those decisions without consulting leaders, none of whom have gone on record since saying they agreed with his actions.
On Wednesday National’s shadow leader of the house, Chris Bishop, told media Mallard’s “unedifying, embarrassing and childish’’ behaviour had prompted his party to lodge a notice of motion of no confidence.
It was due to proceed with it on Thursday in Parliament, but Mallard wasn’t in the House, instead deputy speaker Adrian Rurawhe oversaw Question Time and debates.
On Wednesday night the Parliamentary Service Commission, which also has representatives from each political party, had a scheduled meeting.
Newsroom understands Leader of the House Chris Hipkins completely lost his temper with National at that meeting for their pursuit of a no confidence motion, saying it was just political game-playing.
The motion is a political stunt, but Hipkins can hardly take the moral high ground and lash out about it when National was for the most part dismissed at the Business Committee the night before when trying to raise how best to deal with the protest.
The Parliamentary Service Commission members hold an advisory role, rather than decision-making powers, but Mallard did check with party leaders on Thursday before sending out a statement on the Commission’s behalf.
He also told police about the statement, which said: “There will be no dialogue with protestors currently occupying the Parliamentary Precinct and surrounding areas until the protest returns to one within the law, including the clearing of all illegally parked vehicles that are blocking streets, the removal of unauthorised structures, and the cessation of the intimidation of Wellingtonians.’’
Police have been having daily briefings with Mallard - National, ACT and the Greens have also attended briefings this week.
The consensus amongst political parties for now at least is that cross-party structures like the Parliamentary Service Commission are the best way to communicate messages and effectively “de-politicise’’ the situation.
ACT leader David Seymour walked his own path on Wednesday meeting with an intermediary for the protesters to pass on a message that his party would engage in a mature discussion once the anti-social elements, like the vehicles, tents and aggressive rhetoric, were cleaned up.
It garnered very little response and was overtaken 24 hours later when the joint commission statement came out - although that too has been mostly ignored so far.
Because of the arm’s length between police operations and the Government there is very little that can be done in the Beehive to direct how the protest be dealt with.
That was made clear on Friday when Deputy Prime Minister, Grant Robertson, put on his Wellington Central MP hat and signed a letter alongside National’s Nicola Willis, Greens’ co-leader James Shaw, mayors, councillors, Victoria University, and others calling for the protesters to allow Wellingtonians to move freely around the city again.
Police have all the powers needed to act in any way they deem necessary, but it is clear from Coster’s comments to media that the priority is to observe from a distance and ensure the safety of protesters.
He told Newsroom on Tuesday, “if police have to go in and close that thing down, many people will be hurt. That’s a certainty’’.
Robertson as the local MP and Mallard as Speaker can ask Coster about certain approaches and whether they’re being considered, such as a cordon around the precinct stopping anyone new coming in, but ultimately, it’s still a decision for police.
The demands from the protesters are huge and varied and even if it cleared out enough that only the most moderate of the group remained, the asking price remains too high.
As the country looks down the barrel of an Omicron wave with almost 2000 daily cases no political party would agree to removing all Covid-19 legislation and the public health measures that come with it.
It’s now just a waiting game and while the hardiest of the protesters might stay put for a few months yet, the Omicron outbreak will eventually see them head home.
What started as a so-called anti-mandate protest is no longer what is occupying Parliament grounds.
But the end of some mandates will end up being the bit that comes first, and probably in only a few months time.
This week the Prime Minister publicly acknowledged some mandates would lift when the country was through the Omicron peak and hospital admissions had normalised.
The country is only just heading into the peak and pressure on hospitals is set to soar in coming weeks and months.
When that happens, attention on the current protest will disappear as the bulk of the country, which is vaccinated and boosted, hunkers down and deals with isolation and all the worries that come with a significant Covid outbreak.
The pressure on the Government at that point won't be coming from those camped out on Parliament’s lawn.
The spotlight will be on an underfunded health system battling to keep up, elective surgeries being cut, businesses significantly impacted and on the brink of closure, and the rise in mental distress.
The protesters will be forgotten. Parliament will be operating online, meaning there would be nobody even in the building to hear their demands, and Wellingtonians not isolating or working from home would once again be freely able to move around the city.
It’s now just a waiting game and while the hardiest of the protesters might stay put for a few months yet, the Omicron outbreak will eventually see them head home.
