The New England Patriots already had Mac Jones’ understudy on the roster when they drafted Bailey Zappe in the fourth round of the 2022 NFL Draft. It took one week for Zappe to steal Brian Hoyer’s job. Now, after three games, two starts and, more importantly, two wins the rookie is becoming a viable threat to return to the starting lineup.
But only if a healthy Jones struggles late this fall.
Zappe’s hot start continued in Week 6 as his Patriots roasted the Cleveland Browns 38-15 on the road. The rookie, operating from a deeper playbook than the conservative passing offense he’d captained in a 29-0 win over the Detroit Lions seven days earlier, carved up a middling Browns’ passing defense en route to 309 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Just as importantly, he completed 14 of his 16 passes to an embattled group of wideouts, including a third-and-goal connection with fellow rookie Tyquan Thornton that was a perfect release at the line and a perfect read.
.@Humble_Ty19's first NFL touchdown!
📺: #NEvsCLE on @NFLonCBS pic.twitter.com/2ftKMF2tGu
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) October 16, 2022
Zappe had only attempted five passes 10-plus yards downfield in his 21 attempts in that Detroit debut. On Sunday he leveled up his game. Not only did he attempt nine throws in the intermediate-to-deep range, he also connected on all but one of them for 205 yards and a touchdown. That clocks out at a 155.8 passer rating.
This was a genuinely great performance for a player making his second NFL start. It also gives New England a very good problem to have. The Patriots have two talented, inexpensive young quarterbacks on their roster. But they don’t have a position battle. Yet.
Bill Belichick refused to address the idea of swapping out a healthy Jones after Week 5. It’s wildly unlikely he would after Week 6. The former first round pick remains this team’s starter until otherwise noted.
This is the right way to handle this, because Belichick is extremely well versed in how quickly NFL defenses can adjust to a rookie and take the shine off his apple. He lived through it 10 months ago.
That’s when Jones was building a Pro Bowl resume en route to a 9-4 start. He had a 16:8 touchdown:interception ratio and a 97.1 passer rating before a Week 13 showdown with the Buffalo Bills in which he attempted just three passes thanks to gale force winds in Orchard Park.
That was the turning point in his rookie campaign. After Week 13 teams stopped blitzing Jones and instead dropped extra defenders into coverage in order to clog his passing lanes downfield. This shifted his support system from his offensive line to his wideouts — a group that was unable to handle the pressure.
Jones’ sack rate dropped from 6.2 to 4 percent. His TD:INT ratio fell to 8:7 and his passer rating fell to 78.9. The Patriots’ only win over their last five games — and the only game in which Jones didn’t throw an interception — was a rout against the hapless Jacksonville Jaguars.
That kind of regression looms for Zappe, even if it wouldn’t come the same way. New England’s receiving corps has improved from last season, even if it’s still not great. Thornton could provide a young spark if he can build from Sunday’s performance and DeVante Parker/Jakobi Meyers combined for eight catches and 124 yards on only 10 targets.
More importantly, Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith showed the playmaking ability to make overwhelmed young passers look good, fulfilling Belichick’s vision when he gave each of them average annual salaries exceeding $12 million back in 2021.
Jonnu Smith on the move.@Easymoney_81 | #ForeverNE
📺: #NEvsCLE on @NFLonCBS pic.twitter.com/KSFRy5t8QO
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) October 16, 2022
Instead, defenses could opt to blast him with the blitzes that failed to work against Jones in 2021. The Browns and their bottom-10 pressure rate struggled to get that done, but when they did it created havoc in the backfield; this was Zappe’s second strip sack in three games.
a new Sack King takes the throne 👑
📺: #NEvsCLE on CBS
📱: Stream on NFL+ pic.twitter.com/vCJnZkGeEO— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) October 16, 2022
The New England Patriots, despite a 1-3 start, remain entrenched in the playoff race and are a Week 7 win over the Chicago Bears from climbing over .500. That doesn’t leave much room for error.
We know Jones is at least partially insulated from the ever-shifting tides of NFL defenses because he spent the previous offseason adjusting to it. We don’t know how Zappe will react in a similar circumstance. The two passing defenses he’s faced with a full week of prep work ranked 30th and 16th in DVOA and had limited tape to scour in order to exploit his weaknesses. What happens when he has to face a rising Jets secondary or the Bills and their top-ranked defense?
That leaves Jones as the best option, but also leaves him in a spot where he can rehabilitate his injured ankle fully rather than feel pressured to return at 80 percent. Zappe has been a revelation early, but he’s working within a very small sample size of data. Remember, after three weeks Jacoby Brissett looked like a top 10 quarterback.
Could Bailey Zappe be the real thing? Yes. He’s shown he’s capable of making the right reads even if he was heavily aided by the Browns baffling decisions in coverage on Sunday:
.@Hunter_Henry84 WIDE OPEN.
📺: #NEvsCLE on @NFLonCBS pic.twitter.com/9YesrwP1HC
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) October 16, 2022
But regression is likely and we know this because it came for New England less than a year ago. The Patriots can afford to see how long it takes for that to set in and let Jones get back to full strength because Belichick drafted a player who appears to be, at the very least, a capable NFL backup for years to come.
Zappe may be more than that, but New England shouldn’t be in a rush to find out this early in 2022.
