As Paddy Pimblett’s fight with Michael Chandler looms, there is one fact, statistic, element – word it however you will – that stands out. It confirms the reality of something once deemed near-impossible.
As the lightweights prepare to share the cage at UFC 314, for a maximum of five rounds in Saturday’s co-main event, Pimblett is the betting favourite. The loudmouthed Liverpudlian, his face often nothing but a flash of toothy grin under a lolloping mop of blonde-but-Beatlesesque hair, is the favourite to beat a former three-time world champion.
“Paddy The Baddy” has been doubted courtesy of his unassuming appearance, derided due to his brash demeanour, and dismissed thanks to certain bad habits in the cage. Yet he has beaten everyone placed opposite him in the UFC Octagon, and they have all given way to his sternest test so far in Chandler. And still he is favourite.
His detractors continue to cling to a cluster of words which, in fairness, could come back to bite the 30-year-old. “I’m a Scouser, we don’t get knocked out,” Pimblett said after getting chin-checked in his UFC debut, in 2021. It was a phrase he had used before, during his run in Cage Warriors, where he held featherweight gold before joining the UFC at lightweight.
And yes, Pimblett’s habit of careening at opponents with his chin jutting out, while swinging ungainly limbs, was a justifiable reason to question his odds of survival in the upper echelons at 155lb. In fact, when Pimblett was gifted a fortunate decision win over Jared Gordon in late 2022 (days after embroiling himself in a feud with journalist Ariel Helwani), it was not unfair to question his ability to even reach the top tier; there were sensible suggestions that Pimblett was not improving at the appropriate rate.
However, he meets Chandler at an intriguing intersection in their careers.
While Pimblett’s activity dropped off drastically after his lucky escape against Gordon, and while there was little to learn from his decision win over an expired Tony Ferguson in December 2023, his last outing marked a significant upturn. Against King Green last July – a veteran with a patchy record, but a crisp, dangerous boxer – Pimblett was clinical. He needed barely three minutes to secure a submission, countering an ill-advised takedown with a guillotine before transitioning to a triangle choke with stunning swiftness. Green was left staring up at the arena lights in Manchester, nothing behind his eyes.
It was a crucial moment in Pimblett’s career. Even those who wished to see the Scouser succeed doubted whether he could overcome Green, but Pimblett did so with ease. His level of opposition had increased sensibly from a matchmaking perspective, and Pimblett’s performance had not just improved adequately, it had reached a new height altogether.
Then there is Chandler, who is descending as Pimblett climbs.
The American’s pedigree is unquestionable. A former three-time Bellator champion, Chandler has scored stunning knockouts of Dan Hooker and Ferguson in the UFC. He is a skilled wrestler with explosive punching power. But on the other hand, he is now 38, having spent two years of his prime waiting for a Conor McGregor fight that never came, and his two UFC wins are outnumbered by four defeats.
Those losses came against Justin Gaethje (on points in 2021), Dustin Poirier (via submission in 2022), and Charles Oliveira (by TKO in 2021 and decision last November). These were elite opponents: a former undisputed champion in Oliveira, and former interim champs in Gaethje and Poirier. Furthermore, Chandler was fiercely competitive in all of those fights minus his recent rematch with Oliveira.
Consider the one-way nature of that bout – barring Chandler’s late, hopeful flurry, partly built upon a slew of illegal strikes – and the American’s general inconsistency in the UFC, as well as his own bad fighting habits (particularly his tendency to abandon a sensible gameplan in favour of providing chaotic entertainment). These are all reasons to believe that 12th-ranked Pimblett, at this specific stage in his career, can beat No 7 Chandler in Miami.
The bookmakers agree. And although there are still questions about the tidiness of Pimblett’s striking, he has shown impressive composure under bright lights so far, and his jiu-jitsu threat is tremendous – a strength that can exploit a relative weakness of Chandler’s.
Chandler has almost certainly passed his prime, but still: to say “Paddy The Baddy” would be the favourite against “Iron Mike”, even one year ago, would have raised many eyebrows. Now? Most expect Pimblett’s arm to be raised. With that, he may even move within one fight of a title shot. The Scouser continues to surprise – he just needs to make sure he doesn’t get knocked out.
