It has been a grim time for lunar exploration. Scientists and space engineers had earmarked 2024 as the year that humanity would begin its return to the moon in earnest. An ambitious programme – largely funded through Nasa’s $2.6bn commercial lunar payload services (CLPS) initiative – was drawn up. Its forerunner projects included the launch of the robot lander, Peregrine, last week – to be followed by a crewed mission, Artemis II, that would put four people into orbit round the moon in September. These missions would form the vanguard for a schedule of further projects, both robot and crewed, that would lead to the construction of a lunar colony some time in the next decade.
These pioneering aspirations have not had an auspicious start, however. Shortly after its launch on Monday, mission controllers revealed that Peregrine – despite a flawless launch – had suffered a critical loss of propellant and would fail to make a landing on the moon. Then came the news that Nasa had decided to postpone its Artemis II mission for a year “for safety reasons”.
A year that was expected to herald a breakthrough in lunar exploration is already looking tarnished, with its setbacks triggering accusations that space engineers no longer have the will or ability to return to the moon. We had many successful lunar landings last century, after all. Why can’t achieve we them today, asked critics. Is the right stuff missing?
Such censure is unfair, however. Nasa has taken a very different path from the one it followed during the heady days of the Apollo missions. This time it has put far more onus on private enterprise. Peregrine, for example, was built and launched by commercial companies – in contrast to the entirely tax-funded moon missions of the 60s and 70s.
From this perspective, private industry – albeit with some Nasa support – is expected to take most of the risks and so reap most of the benefits. And although the loss of Peregrine was a major mishap, observers say that companies should quickly acquire the expertise that will bring future missions to successful conclusions. They point to Elon Musk’s SpaceX rocket launch programme as an ideal example of how commerce can move into the market for space ventures.
In opening up the moon to commercial exploitation, it is right that enterprises that take risks there also get the benefits – though there is also a danger that a completely unrestricted rush to exploit the moon could have unwelcome consequences.
The lunar surface features several sites that are ideal for carrying out key scientific research, including gravitational wave investigations and black hole observations. Many lie in areas where, it is believed, there could be precious sources of water and minerals. Companies constructing colonies are likely to home in on these sites and ruin their unique scientific potential, astronomers will warn UN officials later this month.
A working group set up by the International Astronomical Union will seek a strengthening of international treaties that cover the exploitation of extraterrestrial resources.
Such negotiations are likely to be protracted but are crucial if humanity is to avoid destroying sites that are unique to the moon and science.
Despite last week’s setbacks, the lunar exploitation programme will proceed, and great care will be required in controlling how it proceeds over the coming decade.
